=== When Was the Last Time a 1+4 Rotation Actually Worked?! ===
Hey, funny thing. The Mariners have become deep this offseason, alarmingly deep. Nobody ever accused the M's of beating their rivals off the starting line for marquee FA's … but the roadside stop the did M's find themselves in, y'know, it has its own kind of weird.
One thing Billy Beane wasn't expecting, was for the M's to hit the payroll gas pedal to the tune of $110m+.
After we're done holding our breaths and turning blue, we are still left with a pleasant surprise to deal with: $110m or $115m or whatever's worth of players. The Mariners did add $30-odd million worth of players.
Where did the money go? Towards quantity. Pat Gillick would beam with satisfaction. So, take a looksee how many MLB-caliber veterans now cram the sardine-can Mariner roster.
In our zeal to measure the Mariners' IQ on Jose Vidro, we have failed to notice that the Mariners replaced Carl Everett with a .370 OBP. In our sackcloth and ashes, we have failed to notice that the Mariners have their rotation quintuple-parked, and that this is quite rare in the major leagues.
We have not celebrated the Ichiro-Guillen-Ibanez outfield, have not drooled over the fact that the DP combo could be looking at its breakout year, have not dwelled long enough on Beltre's second half, have not noticed that everybody in the M's rotation has a career ERA+ better than 100. (Almost: Weaver's is 96, and the other guys are comfortably over 100.)
In our zeal to storm the keep, it has utterly escaped our attention that the Mariners now have approximately 20 good major league players.
Well, okay, if you want to lawyer it, they have about 17, 18 MLB'ers who range from competent to pretty solid to very promising to star to HOF. But they stacked.
……………………..
What do you amigos think of the idea of one ace, and four absolutely league-average vets in the rotation. Have you given that much thought?
Not only is such a rotation going to run a 105-110 ERA+ as a group …. but above and beyond the fact that a 1+4 rotation is objectively excellent? The chemistry it creates is outstanding. You know you've got a shot, night in, night out.
…………………….
You want to see a team whose starting rotation was (1) EXTREMELY similar to the Mariners' new rotation, and (2) no better than the M's current rotation? CHECK THIS ONE. In fact, one pitcher is so similar in both rotations it's hard to tell them apart…
And that team didn't have a lot of offense, either. I notice this WS winner wasn't from that long ago, either…
Oddly, this 2004 playoff team also had one ace plus four okay vets (Wilson Alvarez being the real #5), and amusingly, that one had Jeff Weaver aboard, too. What is it with Weaver and 1+4 rotations? Do teams that like 1+4 like Weaver or is it an entry for the next synchronicity book? :- )
…………………………
The fact is, there are a ton of playoff teams who have run one ace and four middling vets out there, such as every Red Sox team between 1984 and 2004.
And a ton of recent playoff teams who have done so. Such as the 2005 Padres, with Peavy… actually that was a 1 (-4) rotation. The 2006 White Sox had an 0+5 rotation, LOL, and won 90 games. The 2005 Braves had an ace, Smoltz, and did manage to get a good year out of Tim Hudson. But notice that with their 2+3 rotation, they had only a 102 offense… that team shared a starter with the 2007 M's, too.
…………………………
Typically a ballclub with a 5-deep vet rotation does NOT have a great offense, because you have to spend money to get five proven SP's. The Mariners have spent $8m plus on three different starters for 2007, and that doesn't include their ace.
But the M's don't have a cheap offense, either. They are a legit 9 bats deep. You start to see what we're getting at, as to the 2007 Mariners being almost oddly deep?
Ichiro's move to CF, and the cumulative pickups, may have created a situation where the Mariners have absolutely no weaknesses. They need a couple of bullpen guys to step up, and for just a few other things to break right, to have quality major leaguers everywhere.
………………………..
The 2007 Mariners have the players to win the division. They absolutely do. Don't get me wrong — the 06 Mariners had four pretty decent starters, and it didn't do them much good. I'm right where you are: the M's could win 90 or lose 90. They're a team in flux, so that's to be expected.
Do like the depth, though.
Cheers,
Dr D
