Barry Zito - Dodging Bullets Dept.
Originally published 2006. In Dr. D's cyber-GM world, Zito and Schmidt would have been the biggest balloons to pop in our faces, among others. :- )
Late 2006, Zito was coming off a series of seasons in which his K's had been around 6.5 and his BB's around 3.5. We figured him for a slight turn North into #2-3 starter territory. Instead, he took a big turn South, as we'll cheerfully admit USSM and LL expected him to.
Zito's K's have, in 2008, dropped from the 6's to 3.1. He'd better figure something out, or his career's over. There's a light bulb that I badly needed on at the time: don't "guess" so much with pitchers at crossroads….
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Maybe we need that long-requested D-O-V thread comparing lists of D-O-V and USSM/LL misfires. Think that could be fun? :- )
And a "Hidy hidy hidy ho" to Positive Paul, who drops in over here nice and friendly-like, and then runs back to LL leading boos. Class acts leading the LL comments and game threads this April, ain't they? — Jeff C
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In fact, there are increasing rumblings in the baseball industry that the Mariners are considering, or already in the midst of, making a serious run at free-agent left-hander Barry Zito.
Zito has expressed a fondness for the city of Seattle, but the Mariners are said to be wary of being used as a stalking horse by Zito's agent, Scott Boras. Boras will almost certainly be seeking a six- or even seven-year contract in excess of $100 million — financial territory the Mariners have scrupulously avoided in the past.
The Mariners are believed to fear creating false hope among their fans in light of stories this winter that had them linked to pitchers Jason Schmidt and Tim Hudson, and outfield slugger Manny Ramirez, among others.
Top 10 D-O-V crunches on Barry Zito, just to get the Starbucks drivethru goin' again:
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1) Like most good things in life, he'd cost too much. My wife paid way too much for me. The only worse thing she could have done, was stay single.
I paid too much for my house, and I'm sitting here thrilled with it. We paid way too much for the kids' age 3-4 trip to Disneyland, like ten grand, and it was Hallmark Moment #1 in the Clarkes' life journey. I pay too much in time and effort for D-O-V. My spirituality is the hardest thing I've ever done, and the thing that makes life worth living.
All the best things in life cost too much. The question is not the extra 10% on the bill. The question is, will you be happy with them?
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Besides, I'd rather spend January reading about risk to the 2011 season and a dynamic run at the pennant, than spend April reading about a 2007 season that is stillborn before it begins.
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2) Zito's ERA stays low because the batters are taking arm-swats up there against the deceptive change-curve. Zito's 5.46 xFIP in '06 will send neo-sabes — the post-McCracken guys who think that you normalize the luck stats, and call it good — screaming into the night. His actual ERA in Safeco will run in the threes.
This article explains why guys like Moyer, Zito, Glavine, and Wakefield get wussy dribblers from innings one through eight.
Zito's career ERA+ is 127 — 11th among active players, and his established level of performance is a 115 ERA+, which will rank him about 15th in the league in any given season.
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Granted, Zito's strand rate was way too high in 2006. But his other two 'luck stats,' DER and HR/F, will if anything trend better in Safeco than they have been.
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Last thing: Zito's BB's are volatile, IMHO, because of an adjustment game he battles with the hitters (they try to let his curve drop out of the zone and sit fastball, and then he comes back up with the curve, and then they try to go deep, and…).
In Safeco, Zito can afford to bring the curve up a bit for called strikes — even if they swing, it's caught in the power alley. I think the park sets him up to get more of the plate, which is the same thing as having a better K/BB ratio.
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2b) Tom Glavine is a very compable pitcher to Zito. PECOTA has Glavine as Zito's #5 comp. Groundballs aren't the entire game of hardball, kiddies.
Tom Glavine had some sweaty K/BB's but his ERA's stayed cool, notably in 1993, 1999, 2001… every odd year, it seems. Granted Glavine threw groundballs, but the main thing he did was change speeds and draw pepper swings.
Take a good look at Glavine's age-26, -27 and -28 years. The Other Blog would have been just as dead against signing that player (after 1994), as they are this player (after 2006). After age 28, Glavine was coming off three seasons of weird K/BB's, especially in the NL, and a trend that looked generally down.
Glavine was also a very, very talented left hand ace. With a lot of gray matter, and a lot of guile, a lot of knowledge of the game and a lot of ability to adjust.
Zito is not?
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2c) Zito wore down in September in 2006. Monthly splits.
Given his usual 220+ IP, Zito melted down in September, with a horrific Three Outcomes (20BB, 19K, 5HR in 31IP).
At the end of August, Zito was 14-8, 3.57 with nice peripherals, but the arm musta felt like Jello.
The M's go easier on their SP's.
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3) About 80% of the hitters who face Zito are right-handed. Only Ichiro and David Ortiz get sent up there against the Nintendo change-curve. As to what Safeco does to RH hitters… ask Mike Cameron, David Bell, Miguel Olivo, Adrian Beltre…
Will cheerfully admit that Washburn did not take advantage of Safeco the way we thought he would. Will also cheefully predict that Barry Zito will not fail to do so.
The last three years, Zito's ERA is 2.89 in Safeco. I wouldn't be the least surprised for him to run a home ERA in that general territory going forward. The combo of the defensive swing and the par-5 power alley will result in an awful lot of Zitos-to-Ichiros…
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4) Zito's flake could transform the franchise. Whereas Schmidt is a glowering swamp creature, Zito is a psychedelic hypnotist, Edward Norton's Illusionist with the five fingers splayed, brow lowered, eyes burning into you…. as you fish for the curve in the dirt.
His career playoff ERA is 3.25, and that's against reallllllly tough teams.
A matured Tasmanian Devil Felix, along with Zito's Dream Weaver persona and pitch selection, would just flat be fun to watch.
Here's a question for you. Are you telling me that the Oakland A's personality has NOT been Barry Zito's the past seven years?
I'm just noodlin' here. Is it possible that when Zito goes, the A's lose "It," their mystique, their blast-the-torpedoes, we-love-this-game personality?
Is it possible he brings it to Seattle?
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5) Bill James Historical Abstract rule: the more graceful the lefty, the more durable. Zito has one of the game's great centrifugal motions — it's like the parts are sliding on oiled glass in there.
Zito is 200 innings a year of 110-120 ERA+ … a butter-smooth lefty, 29 years old, who is as good a health bet as you find in a pitcher. You figure he's capable of a 100 ERA+, even in his dream ballpark? Hey, the stoploss is 200 innings of a solid pitcher.
If another pitcher is worth X years, Zito is worth X+1 or maybe X+2.
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6) Zito's health sets you up to make a killing via Net Present Value. Check me here, Padna. (Paul C did check me with a corrected formula that increases the cost a bit - DrD)
I must have calculated this wrong, because the Excel formula =NPV(10%,16,16,16,16,16,16) returns $69.68m as the total value of a 6-year Zito deal. $11.5m a year?
Or give him $18m a year, not even backloaded, and =NPV(10%,18,18,18,18,18,18) returns a measly $78.39m as the total value of the deal … $12.5m per.
Either I typed something in wrong, or 6 x $18m is my offer to Barry Zito, b'lee DAT. Check that: I call Scott Boras and I say, I don't want to be played. What number signs him right now? And when Boras says 6 x $18m, I say, "sure, I can do that."
In any case, the relative safety of Zito's six-year deal sets you up to make an awesome-LOOKING deal that isn't nearly so awesome in real dollars. You make exceptions to your guidelines for some players — you were going to make it for Matsuzaka. From a health standpoint, Zito is at least as good a bet as Daisuke Matsuaka.
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The best thing Bavasi ever did, seriously, was sign all those Edmondses and Salmons to long contracts. When a player stays healthy and at his level, his contract is a bargain in just a couple years.
I think Zito will stay healthy and at his level. I'm guessing the Mariners do too.
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Lemme repeat that Zito is not a #1 starter and that a big contract for him is slightly desperate
1. As I've said many times, Zito has definitely fallen out of Cy Young contention. He's a 2-3 starter. Though also a big-game pitcher and a great fit for the park.
2. And a Net Present salary of $12-14m is very uncomfortable for a pitcher who isn't a 24K-gold Opening Day Starter. It's an overpay.
3. But there are times when a little desperation is in order. Not blind desperation, but well-targeted desperation.
A huge deal for Zito is slightly shrill, absolutely. But it is for the player we (I) have confidence in. So like Mr. Spock, we're reasoning that it's time for an emotional outburst. :- )
You do the same thing in chess …. your position passes the point where you pull the fire alarm, and then you take intelligent, sharp, "mix-it-up" gambles to maximize your chances of winning. It's not emotional; it's the percentage play from a bad position. Like a football team throwing the ball when down 15.
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The M's have painted themselves into a situation where a slightly shrill overpay for a marquee player is the right thing to do.
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7 ) Zito pitches backwards. Two words: Kenji Johjima calling games for a topflight Japanese-style ace. Okay, that's six or something. Just let me see the sight before I die, and we'll call it good.
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8 ) Felix, Zito, Batista, Horacio, Washburn, and eight-game winning streaks in July. The starch in the collar provided by pre-game confidence.
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9) If the M's can afford to BID $16m+ per season for Zito, they can afford to do a whale of a lot more this winter. With or without Zito.
Stone's article is a snowball across the fortress that the M's are still in the game, big. I don't say it's the gospel truth. But a play for Zito means that fans should not quit on the winter.
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10 ) godaddy.com plus WordPress ain't going to work for Premium D-O-V. Their long-awaited plugin, didn't. Just don't cut it, sez our techie.
And if D-O-V ain't premium, it's back over to SportSpot for th' lot of us. That would be a letdown after the Bill the Beerman Wave that inspired me, Matt and Inka last month :- )
Seattle Hardball figured out a way to work premium access that apparently isn't very costly. Inka is workin' it for us.
In the meantime, any suggestions as to the right host or config or whatnot? Doesn't seem it should be that hard to get PayPal synch'ed up with site access.
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Cheers,
Dr D
December 20th, 2006 at 5:35 pm Quote
And if so, what would the winter’s 2007 salaries add up to? Whew.