=== NOV 10 UPDATE ===

Dr. Naka reports that Igawa will be posted, and that the M's are rumored to be frontrunners.

Taro's scouting report…

Igawa doesn’t have plus command, he is just aggresive in the zone, especially when behind in the count. He lost his consistently low 90s fastball a few years ago and was used to having success pitching like a power pitcher. It took a couple years of his 88-90mph straight fastball getting pasted before he figured he needed to change his approach. Now, in 2006, hes finally figured out that the fastball is a gopher pitch when centered and overexposed so he’ll go to it less often (will throw it down the middle when hes confident the hitter is unbalanced) and try to spot on the corners or miss out of the zone with it when he isn’t sure if the hitter is sitting on it. This adjusment is HUGE, as he has finally learned to pitch backwards and mix his pitches better (which he MUST do in America) in 2006 and its making him a far better bet to succeed in the transition to MLB. If Igawa were to pitch the way he pitched pre-2006 in the big leagues (aggresively with his straight 89mph fastball), he wouldn’t have been very succesful despite the great K/BB ratios. Preseason Igawa wasn’t as attractive of an option, but 2006 answered a lot of questions.

Igawa’s BB rate is going to go up in America. He doesn’t have good command (will make his share of mistake pitches in comparison to guys like Kuroda and Uehara), won’t be able to be as aggresive behind the count (unless he wants a skyrocket HR rate), and his breaking pitches are going break a little more in America (especially the changeup). That fine though, his BB rate should still be around average. As long as he keeps the hitters off balance(using his fastball primarilly to change up the hitters’ eye), his K rate will be high and hitters will have trouble making quality contact. Along with his curveball, his changeup is excellent and is a pitch you don’t see in the MLB (moves like a changeup, drops like a forkball). In the NPB, hitters have adjusted to Igawa’s changeup somewhat and know that he will usually throw it low and (mostly) when ahead in the count, so they let it go even if they don’t recognize it early. MLB hitters, on the other hand, will not know whats coming to them. Expect the changeup to be his #1 pitch in 2007; hitters will be geared up for the fastball and the way Kuroda throws the change its going to really break more with the MLB ball. Igawa will most likely be at his best in year #1 to MLB hitters because of the changeup and his deception.

All that said, I don’t like Igawa as much as Kuroda. I like Kuroda better long-term because he has so little room for failure with his pitching stlye; and I’d be more comfortable with him in a playoff series (due to his ability to pitch to the scouting report). Thats not a knock against Igawa though. If Igawa pitches like he pitched in 2006 hes a #3 starter for cheap and he’d likely be BETTER than Kuroda during his first year in the bigs (maybe even TOR good). With the prices starters are getting in the current market you’ve GOT to pursue Igawa if hes available.

Just to add…
There are a couple other scenarios in which I can see Igawa dissapointing a little.
#1 He has a fiery mound presence and is known to give animated reaction to the umpire if he doesn’t like the call. He absolutely can’t due that in the bigs or they’ll give him the rookie treatment.
#2 Pitches too high in the zone. This is a potential problem for most Japanese pitchers trying to transition to the MLB, but its especially important in Igawa’s case. If the hitter is staying back on the ball, Igawa’s change is a lot easier to hit when elevated. His fastball is easier to hit when elevated. As is the curve (although it still maintains its break). Its great if he goes up occasionally to switch up the hitter’s eye every now and then, but if he takes it too far its going to affect the HR rate.
^^^
Wouldn’t be too worried about #2 with Joh behind the plate, but someone really needs to let him understand #1 during spring training.

 

=== OCT 26:  Bombshell for M's Fans? Dept. ===

Ken Rosenthal, who is usually as good as it gets, kind of a super-Gammons the last year or two … has Igawa being DEFINITELY POSTED THIS OFFSEASON?!

Rosenthal article.  He says offhandedly,

Several Japanese stars besides Matsuzaka are attracting the interest of major-league clubs, and the contingent of arrivals could end up being the largest of any single offseason.

The Braves are targeting left-hander Kei Igawa, 27, who has averaged nearly 15 wins for the Hanshin Tigers over the past five seasons. Igawa, like Matsuzaka, will be posted, so the Braves must win the bidding for his negotiating rights to sign him.

Usually Rosenthal isn't talking out of his ear; he's relaying info he got from GM's.  BTW, this follows on Bob Bavasi's opinion that Igawa could be posted this year.

Maybe they're all wet.  But if Igawa really is posted, we could assume it is either (1) a Terrell Owens-like situation, in which Igawa's sour complaining about not being posted has finally gotten him the door, or (2) Hanshin fearing a decline, and not wanting to sacrifice a potential large posting fee.  (No reason whatsoever for speculating that, except to scare off other teams….)

BTW, other sources claimed that Hanshin was going to post Igawa only if they could pick up Hiroki Kuroda, but Rosenthal says it's a done deal.  We'll see.

…………………….. 

mlbrumors.com flatly states that the M's are among the teams most interested in Igawa:

In addition to Atlanta, we know that the Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, and Tigers have special interest in Igawa.

The usual suspects.  LAD, Sea, and the Mets have always been ahead of the curve on NPB play.  Detroit's interest in NPB pitchers has come on strong this offseason.

.

=== Let's! Go! To! the VID! eoTAPE! ===

45 seconds of heaters and hooks

Shutout vs Yakult in this game, Igawa sat at 87-89 with the fastball touching 92, a 82 mph hook, and an interesting 77-81 circle change/fork used for strikeouts, in Jeff Fassero style.

3B view of Igawa's motion

Wearing fake wig/cap in 2004 game

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=== Toolbox ===

87-89 fastball, touching 92, moved around the zone, thrown up for swinging strikes.  Similar to Langston in approach, minus a foot or two … Zito-type fastball in the '06 vids I saw.

82 mph power hook with a big lefty drop, definitely a plus-plus pitch.  Excellent Zito-like deception.

77-81 drop pitch, not sure what he calls it, definitely a pitch he gets them fishing for, in Jeff Fassero style.

Or that's what I've seen in just a hundred or two scattered pitches.  The local NPB experts can correct me where I'm wrong.

Runs huge K to BB ratios, like 194:49 this year and 228:54 two years ago.

. 

=== Most-Comparable Pitchers Dept. === 

Igawa used to remind me a lot of Mark Langston … drop-and-drive lefty motion, very centrifugal with great extension, good crisp fastball moved around the zone, power hook with great deception.

In fact, in terms of motion, Igawa could be the Japanese Langston …  except Igawa hooks up his glove and his shoulderline to the ball better, as most Japanese pitchers do.

Langston walked a lot of guys, whereas Igawa's walk rates are superb, though I couldn't tell you why.  It doesn't look like Igawa commands his fastball any better than Langston did. 

………………….. 

Looking at him in a few games this year, Igawa seems (?) to have lost a foot or two on his fastball — nothing unusual in a pitcher's development arc — and perhaps going more to his excellent breaking ball.  This drifts over from Langston territory into Barry Zito territory.  Watch the Yakult game above and see if he doesn't remind you of Zito.

…………………… 

In either case, Igawa does add a very effective drop pitch into the bargain.  He uses it with two strikes, which is very much in Jeff Fassero, Chuck Finley style. 

Igawa seems to grip it like a circle change, with a lot of pressure on his middle and ring fingers, but it moves like a forkball. 

Love a lefthander with a power (overhand) fork or diving change.  Only Finley and Fassero really come to mind as LHP's with good overhand sinking offspeed pitches. 

Plus Igawa. Probably this drop pitch explains why Igawa has the spectacular, Fassero-like K/BB's, as opposed to Langston who had the K's but who walked a lot of guys.

…………………….

If Igawa has tailed off to 87-89 mph territory with the heavy usage, I'd be inclined to think of him as a Barry Zito or Ted Higuera comp … perhaps a bit less command, but adding a Fassero-type strikeout change/fork. 

If, on the other hand, he can still bring it at 90-93 when not overused, you're definitely talking about a Jeff Fassero (1995-1997) style power lefty who is liable to torment MLB hitters.

.

=== Safe At Home Dept. ===

The next power, high-K lefty that pitches for the M's at Safeco will be the first.  What was Moyer's streak there lately, 13 straight wins or something?  You've got to put a thumb or two on the scale for getting LH players into Safeco.

The glory Yankees of 1921-1964 used great LHP's, and great LH home run hitters, decade after decade.  The Mariners really can't go too far with lefthandedness.   

.

=== Igawa vs Kazuhiso Ishii ===

IGAWA's CAREER STATS

Interesting thing here, is the BB rate.  Especially in view of Igawa's electric stuff… well, at least his electric power curve and drop pitch.

t’s becoming more and more clear — with Kazuo Matsui, Ishii, and others — that when you spend money on Japanese stars, you want to pad the odds by getting good K/BB players.

Ishii’s lifetime BB rate in Japan was about 4.5 — so he did not have the strike-zone skills to deal with testy MLB umps.

Kazuo Matsui always had questionable K/BB’s in Japan, and so much trouble recognizing MLB pitches that they talked about his eyesight all year.  'course, this may have actually turned out to be legit…

Igawa’s liftime BB rate is in the 2’s … a hair below 3.00 lifetime.  In 2004 he had a 228/54 ratio in 200+ innings. That’s way down in the low 2’s for BB rate. Kei tosses 200+ innings — and walks a good steady 50 batters a year, whether they need it or not.

……………………….

Igawa does challenge a lot … gives up about a league-average HR rate, in Japan … for the sake of not walking anybody.  Does this mean he is susceptible to the dinger in MLB?

Could be.  Igawa looks "effectively wild" with the FB (although it's hard to believe he's wild with those walk rates).  And his deception is excellent.

But an 87 fastball up is an 87 fastball up, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Igawa give up a lot of homers (but few walks) in the majors.

In this event, if he struggles with the gopherball, he runs Ted Lilly statlines.  Which is still a quality #3-4 pitcher.

Depending on whether Igawa still has 100% juice in his arm, I'd look for a Langston-Fassero type pitcher in the AL, or if not, then a Lilly type.  Would NOT oversell him as a bona fide All-Star unless he's throwing 92 mph with a fresh arm.

Not knowing for sure either way, I'd draft him around #25 SP in an AL-only draft. 

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=== Pipe Dreams, Dept. ===

We continue to ask whether there are any unwritten rules against the Mariners "stockpiling" Japanese players, such as by purchasing three in an offseason… 

The Mariners need two "cherry" SP's this offseason.  Igawa and a Rodrigo Lopez type would be quite the disappointment.  …But Matsuzaka and Igawa, or Schmidt and Igawa?  Now we're talking. 

If the M's thought is a draft board including something like 1 Matsuzaka 2 Schmidt 3 Zito 4 Igawa 5 Trade, and get the best two they can, then sign me up.

If available, Igawa could give you a Zito-type prospectus, but with more green left over for the rest of the roster.

Taro, Dr. N, Ice, Bedir?

Cheers,

Dr D