Also see POTD:  Alfonso Soriano.

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The rumors about Seattle's interest in Soriano gather steam…

Some amigos think that it's quite obvious that a Soriano trade would be INCORRECT — that it would be simply wrong to trade for him, that there is no "case for" worth considering.

In that spirit, allow D-O-V to state the case for.  This does not mean that Dr. D is for the trade.  But we do think that the decision is much less two-dimensional than you might assume at first glance. 

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=== You Could Learn Somethin' From A Rotodweeb, Dept. === 

Trading for Alfonso Soriano is a classic BABVA roto trade — get the square-peg-round-hole star in here, now, and configure your roster later.  The case for this deal, simply stated:

Alfonso Soriano may be the only marquee hitter available to the Mariners, either in 2006 or in 2007. 

In roto and in real life, hitters are more valuable than pitchers, because more predictable.  Investing big $$ in pitchers is much riskier than investing big $$ in hitters.

It may well be that Soriano's 50-homer surge this year is a permanent jump in ability, caused by his position switch.  Even if it isn't, Soriano's expected .500 SLG in Safeco is worth approximately what Richie Sexson's is.  He could easily run a .300 EqA in Safeco.

You can configure your roster to account for the fact that the M's already have AAA outfielders.  

In Roto, when Dr. D gets a chance to trade bit parts for a star, he does it now, and configures his roster later.  Soriano is a square-peg-round-hole player, but in Roto, I trade for those guys all the time.

Half the battle in Roto, mid-season, is to try to convert your lower-end players into stars.  When you get a chance, you take it.  Why?  …that's another subject… the lower-end players are fungible.  They're coming up through the floorpipes all the time — you always have extra taxi squad players you can't find a place for.  The question is how do you offload your #20, #22 and #23 players for a #4 player, so that you can promote a coupla scrubs?

Trading scrubs for stars is a very, very important part of the roster-building process…

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=== If You Have A Better Suggestion, Now's the Time Dept. ===

Are there better alternatives?  There sure could be.  There sure was last winter, when D-O-V clamored for Jim Thome.

But is everybody aware that the only decent FA hitter this offseason is the RH Carlos Lee?  And that Lee is at most a push for Alfonso Soriano in Safeco?  And that the M's will be one of 10+ teams in line for Carlos Lee?

So you ARE left with two questions:  

(1) If you do want an impact bat, who but Soriano?

(2) If you don't want an impact bat, where do you spend $95m?

The Soriano decision can't be made without the 30,000-foot view.  If you say no to Soriano, you gotta present the 1- and 2-year plans for the roster, WITHOUT leaving money on the table, and WITH including specific names.

Bill Bavasi isn't playing roto.  He only has a very limited number of names available to him!  And he doesn't want to spend $82m when he has $95m on the table. 

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=== What the question is NOT, Dept. === 

The question is NOT, "would we prefer to have a LH slugger."  We would.  Who did you have in mind?

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The question is NOT, "will Safeco hurt RH All-Star hitters."  It will.   But it hurts the other team's stars too.  You have to normalize for context. 

If Alfonso Soriano hits a raw .280/.320/.500 in Safeco, note carefully that this is worth much more than it is worth in Texas.  .280/.320/.500 is a legit #4 hitter in Safeco.  Richie Sexson wins the M's a lot of games.

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The question is NOT necessarily, "which kid would this 50-homer man block."  Those AAA hitters can be used in trades, or as depth against injury.  You can't leave the 2nd and 3rd chess moves out of the combination.  If you are trading for Alfonso Soriano, you'd blamed well better have the 2nd and 3rd moves in mind.

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The question is NOT necessarily, "do we want to make 3 of our 4 franchise hitters righties."

You don't need certain kinds of good hitters, as much as you need good hitters period.

You bet I'd like a lefty batting order in Safeco.  But let's say I can't have one.  Then I'd rather have star RH hitters than mediocre LH hitters. 

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=== The Joe Sheehan $9 Pitching Staff === 

The question is also NOT as simple as, "would you prefer to add veteran pitching, and go with young kids on offense."  That's reasonable — but so is it reasonable to buy hitting, and develop pitching.

Note carefully that star hitters are PREDICTABLE.  $10m hitters are much less risky than $10m pitchers!

If Bavasi prefers to go with (say) Felix-Washburn-Matsuzaka, and then let Lowe-Cruceta-Morrow-Fruto battle it out for #4-5, then don't underestimate the risk management that offers. 

It's always nice to spend money on safe predictable hitters.  Roto is built around this principle, remember?

It's axiomatic with Roto champs that you want to spend 70-80% of your payroll on those nice predictable hitters, and take your chances with the pitching staff.  That's because you spit so much of your pitching dollars down the toilet anyway.

If Bavasi choose to deal Choo, Snelling, etc. for Soriano or some other marquee hitter, and roll the dice with Lowe-Cruceta etc … well, he is taking the approved Roto path, now ain't he?

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=== Upside, Dept. ===

In the Soriano POTD, we outlined 5 scenarios, in which Soriano could make sense for the M's:

(1) If he were going to play CF… you could create a Johjima/Clement scenario, with Soriano/Jones.  Which means you've added a legit #4-5 hitter in CF.

(2) If Soriano were a rent-a-player in LF/DH, brought in to help win the 2006 pennant.  

(3) If you had a market for Adrian Beltre, and could put Soriano in the infield … the Nats have Zimmerman and Nick Johnson at the corners, so it would have to be a side deal.

(4) If you were going to package Choo, Snelling, and six other guys for two TOR starters and clean out the AAA logjam.  That certainly does not have to happen this July.  You can sit on the hole cards.  We're talking strategically, if you like Soriano, you can trade the young guys.

(5) If Soriano's explosion, his 50-HR, .575-SLG mode, has indeed been caused by his defensive switch, then you find a place for him, period.  He's one of the best players in the game.

On the (1), if this is your creative CF solution, you've created one of the game's best players by moving him to CF … and the position move parallels Adam Jones'.

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On (2), the rent-a-player scenario … let's say it's Choo and baubles for Soriano?

You can't assume that Chris Snelling is going to come up and instantly hit 90% of what a $10m MLB veteran does.  That's the classic RLP logic error.

Hey, MLE's are great things, but they don't mean that a minor leaguer is a certified MLB player before he ever plays there.  Nor do they mean that Snelling isn't going to get hurt.

It's real easy for us saberdweebs to say, "hey, Hunter Brown is 82.4% of Richie Sexson.  Why not save the $12m?"  People forget that a lot of players FLUNK that MLB transition … and *most* players flunk it the first year. 

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On (3), I'm sure the M's aren't interested in Soriano in the infield …. but if you could trade Beltre for Soriano (in a three-way), you have essentially gained the 40-homer man you wanted in the first place, though he's a subpar defender.  Big deal.  Since when is defense the absolute?

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On (4), you are going for a certified MLB MOTO hitter and trading your prospects for pitchers.  Since when is trading prospects for stars a dumb thing?

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As to the (5), I really don't think you should discount the possibility that Soriano is going to benefit offensively from the position switch….

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=== $95,000,000 Dept. ===

In Roto, the entire reason that you find cheap young players like Felix, Lowe, Cruceta, Putz, Lopez, Jones, Snelling, and YuBet … is to save your money for more stars at the top of your roster.

Cost savings isn't an end in itself.  Cost savings is a means to an end.  Cost savings is a tactic designed to allow you to field an extra superstar or two.

Okay, you have a *different* star in mind for 2H 2006, or for 2007.  Whodat?

It's reasonable to shoot for SP stars.  But what if Felix, Moyer, Washburn, and Lowe are already givens for 2007?  What if Cruceta is also a given?  Which is the bigger risk:  $45m to Alfonso Soriano, or $45m to Barry Zito?

Gotta pencil out some rosters here… y'know that Bill Bavasi has.

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=== Dr's Diagnosis Dept. ===

I'm not recommending a trade for Alfonso Soriano.  But I will guarantee you that there are scenarios in which it makes reasonable sense. 

Just like it would in Roto, and for many of the same reasons.  You get the star onto your roster when you get the chance, and you mold the roster after.  The tweaks after ain't hard.  It's landing the star that's hard.

Alfonso Soriano is not the ideal $10m player.  But he is in fact a $10m player. 

Cheers,

Dr D