In 10 min's between jobs here … sPoints for identifying the moment in the pics…

See also Alfonso Soriano: Roto Trades for thoughts on the roster strategy that aims to convert #20-#25 roster parts into larger eggs, #4 roster players, like Sr. Soriano.

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Q:  What's the bottom line?

A:  Soriano is (1) not the ideal $10m player for Safeco, but he is (2) in fact a $10m player.

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Q:  Is he a star?

A:  At second base, he's a big star, worth $12m or more; in left field, he's a fine ballplayer, worth $8m or something.  (That's assuming Soriano's 2006 surge is not caused by his OF switch.)

Soriano is who he is:  a .275 hitter with 35 homers, good basepath speed, and not a lot else.

He hits blizzards of long fly balls, and here's where HR/F theory does help you out.  Soriano is one of baseball's most extreme FB hitters, and he has good juice in his bat, and 30-40 of those fly balls are going to go out of the park.

Don't minimize that.  Home runs are the greatest play in baseball, as any Earl could tell you.  As Earl *did* tell you, "home runs do a whale of a lot to win me a ballgame."

Soriano's speed also means that he *scores* 100 runs a year, so he's a valuable offensive player … 90 to 100 runs and RBI every year.  There are a lot of guys who don't.

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Q:  Most-comparable players?

A:  Raul Mondesi, Ron Gant, Adam Jones … see the comment about Richie Sexson below.

Soriano has exploded at the plate since moving leftward on the defensive spectrum.  Maybe he was always Andruw Jones playing out of position?

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I personally think that if you understand who Raul Mondesi was, then you understand who Alfonso Soriano has been.  He's a good hitter, nothing to build your franchise around.

At second base it's another subject.  His predictable 35 homers, at that position, make him a routine 1st-round draft pick in AL-only leagues.  But he's a shaky second baseman; his rep is well-deserved there. 

Kain't imagine Soriano playin' no infield in Seattle.  Prob'ly not even in extra-inning games.  At least then we'd find out whether the 50 bombs are a result of relaxing into his defense.

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Q:  What's that you say about Soriano & Richie Sexson?

A:   Put it in perspective, Soriano is about as good a hitter as Richie Sexson, maybe not quite. They both hit .270 with 30-40 bombs.  Sexson then adds walks to that dinger party; Soriano adds a lot of speed to the party.

If you want to move from Sexson to Soriano:

(1)Take away 40 walks a year and turn them into outs
(2) Add 30 SB’s and a lot of “invisible” 1st-to-3rd’s on the bases
(3) Make Sexson a very fast outfielder and a marginal 2B/3B

You saw in the July 18 game what a 3-run home run does in a 4-2 game… heh.

The idea of comparable players is to help you get your bearings on a player's value.  Adding Soriano would be adding another Sexson, minus some walks and plus some speed.

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Q:  Does he have upside?

A:  Isn't it interesting that he is having his best hitting year, the year that he switched off 2B out to LF?

Can you prove that he won't hit 50 homers a year from now on, now that he's not embarrassing himself in the infield?  LOL.

Now that Soriano is playing a fast OF and hitting 40-50 bombs, he reminds a lot of Andruw Jones… it will be interesting to see how the position switch tracks with his offense long-term. 

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Q:  Could Soriano play CF in Safeco?  Could it be a creative way to solve the CF problem?

A:  That would be exciting, wouldn't it?  Soriano's fast, of course, and CF is easy to play in Safeco.

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Q:  How much will Safeco hurt him?

A:  His Safeco splits look ugly so far, and the park will take 5 homers a year from him, but don't make it the end of the world.

Soriano is similar in many ways to Nomar Garciaparra, and seamheads were sure that Nomah had never been anything but a park illusion.

Not so.  Nomah was a star talent who adapted to his park and *looked* like an illusion, LOL.  Check him out now, in Dodger Stadium.  Also check out detect-o-vision's preseason prediction on Nomah.

The talent trumped the illusion of the road splits.  Same with Soriano.  Don't get lulled by the 04-05 road splits; Soriano can mash a pitched baseball.

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Of course I've said for years that the Mariners need to change Safeco.  It will simply destroy the average RH hitter.  The longer a righty plays there, the more it gets to him.

Sexson transcended the park in 2005, and Soriano would probably play well there for a year, year and a half, before real danger would set in.  Anyway, Sexson-Beltre-Soriano-Johjima is the wrong long-term roster config for Safeco.  No doubts there.

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Q:  Do you want him?

A:  What are the alternatives?

If we dunno, how do we choose?  LOL.

Soriano isn't the ideal "Marquee Player" to chase, that's for sure.  But riddle me this:  who knows if there are ANY other marquee players to chase?  …even this winter, it's Carlos Lee and some awfully lean pickings.  Whatsa big deal getting Lee vs. Soriano?  They're a push to me.

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Q:  C'mon, would it be a move you'd be happy with?

A:  I would not want Alfonso Soriano as a franchise player, no.  He's a fine ballplayer who would be a poor fit for Safeco. 

He would also leave the M's with three RH hitters in the middle of their order.

I'd much sooner have Jim Thome, as stated this offseason …

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Q:  Under what circumstances would it make the M's a better team?

A:  (1) If he were going to play CF… don't think for a minute that Dr. D wouldn't give Jones another year in AAA, if that meant a legit #4-5 hitter added to *this* ballclub…

(2) If Soriano were a rent-a-player in LF/DH, brought in to help win the 2006 pennant …

(3) If you had a market for Adrian Beltre, and could put Soriano in the infield … the Nats have Zimmerman and Nick Johnson at the corners, so it would have to be a side deal.

(4) If you were going to package Choo, Snelling, and six other guys for two TOR starters and clean out the AAA logjam.  That certainly does not have to happen this July.  You can sit on the hole cards.  We're talking strategically, if you like Soriano, you can trade the young guys.

(5) If Soriano's 50-HR, .575-SLG mode has indeed been caused by his defensive switch, then you find a place for him, period.  He's one of the best players in the game. 

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Q:  Anything else?

A:  The dominoes that would have to fall after a Soriano deal would be interesting to watch. 

Doubt strongly that the M's are interested in Soriano.  If they were, at least they'd be pushing their chips into the 2006 pot.  Somewhere I heard that baseball was about pennant races, but that was a rumor I heard as a kid… you don't want to go and pay $1.25 on the dollar and lose a trade, just to win a pennant. 

Cheers,

Dr D

=== MY BAD Dept. ===

Okay, match the following pics with the following 1995 ALDS moments. 

1) With M's down 2-1 in games and 5-0 on the scoreboard, Edgar's 3-run shot gets the M's back in game 4, changing the score from 5-0 to 5-3

2) Edgar's grand slam off John Wetteland puts M's up 10-6 in the eighth of game 4

3) Griffey scores the GW run in the 11th inning to send the Yankees home (thereby delaying one of NYY's greatest 6-year runs of domination)

4) Edgar celebrates, having doubled to change the score from 4-5 to 6-5 in the 11th

And here's the b-ref boxes and play-by-plays.  LOL.