The below was the "postgame" report after Lowe's ML debut against the White Sox. After three more weeks of blistering 97 fastballs, the below opinions became the consensus, but after one game, the perception was another story - Dr D
.
Q: What's the bottom line?
A: He's a Jered Weaver-, Freddy Garcia-level rookie prospect.
Bear with me. We'll revisit in the last paragraph to explain what we mean by that.
Q: So where did he come from?
A: Noplace. Vanilla "good live arm" panned out.
In college, Lowe did absolutely nothing until his senior year at UT-Arlington, and then as a senior, he was only "fairly good." Crawled up to be their Sunday (#3) SP for a little while.
But the Mariners — brilliantly!, as it turns out — took him way up in the 5th round, actually their 2nd choice in 2004. Why? Tall righthander with a pitcher's body and a very live (95 mph) arm.
The M's could correct me if I'm wrong, but I really don't think they had any more than that on him. Their "spaghetti against the wall" approach — get the most lively arms (coughTillmanMorrowButlercough), see which ones pan out. Here was Lowe as a college senior, one pitch up near the mid-90's, pitcher's body from the word Go … and had room to gain velo even from there. So, take yer shot, eh hoser?
No two ways about it. Mark Lowe is an example of the M's experts seeing potential that others didn't see.
The MLB mini-report at the time (2004) was:
MARK LOWE U TEXAS-ARLINGTON RHP R/R 6'4" 180 1983-06-07 4YR
COMMENT: TALL & SLENDER. LONG LIMBED. WELL PROPORTIONED. SIMILAR TO EX-MAJOR LEAGUER DANNY DARWIN.
NO WINDUP, 3/4 TO LOW 3/4 DELIVERY.
ABOVE AVG SINKING FB, BORING INTO RHH AT TIMES. WORKS BOTH SIDES OF PLATE. AGGRESSIVE W/ PITCH.
LOW 3/4, SWEEPING CB.
ALSO SINKS CHANGE AWAY FROM LHH. CHANGE PRESENTLY 2ND BEST PITCH.
LOOSE ARM. GOOD PITCHERS BODY. NATURAL SINKING FB & CHANGE.
Lowe went to low-A ball in 2004 and was good, though not great.
………………….
The next year, 2005, he moved to the Midwest League, class A, and was poor … G-Moneyball and JFromSeattle used to talk about how he showed flashes of brilliance, mixed with frustrating big innings. He walked lots of guys, considering what his toolbox is, and did not have his act together.
Coming into 2006, Mark Lowe had about the blog-o-sphere currency that, say, Robert Rohrbaugh or Ryan Rowland-Smith do now. Not much.
………………….
Then in 2006 he stepped into the phone booth and whirled on the red cape:
INLAND EMPIRE HIGH A - 29.1 ip, 46 k, 11 bb, 0 hr, 14 hits, 1.84 ERA
When three hitters strike out for every one who gets a base hit …. STOP DA FIGHT!. Curt Schilling would not post a better performance in A+ ball. What a charnel house.
…………………..
So the Mariners jumped Lowe to the high minors:
SAN ANTONIO AA - 16.2 ip, 14 k, 3 bb, 1 hr, 14 h, 2.16 ERA as the closer
Does it look as if Lowe hit the appropriate level, since his K's returned to 8/game? Nada. Lowe's strikeouts and walks BOTH went way down, as so often, because hitters could make a little contact — so they put the ball in play earlier in the count (meaning, they put it in play on 2-2, as opposed to not putting it in play ever at all).
The Mariners fell madly in love with WHATEVER Lowe was doing at San Antonio, because they declared him ready to succeed in the big leagues. This being the Mariners, that means that Mark Lowe could throw his moving fastball to spots in the strike zone. On a game-in, game-out basis.
As one M's scout put it, "he's throwing the seams off the ball."
…………………….
Q: So what does all that mean?
A: Pitchers go through plateaus, and then jump to the next one. Lowe jumped a plateau or three.
The Mariners certainly deserve a break. They've had a maddening run of pitchers NOT hopping plateaus. That they should get a couple, like Putz and Lowe, is only fair.
……………….
Sometimes pitchers jump three plateaus in one week, as JJ Putz did earlier this year.
Very much like JJ Putz, Lowe gained command of a 2nd pitch that unlocked his sizzling fastball. With Putz is was the splitter - with Lowe it is the hard overhand slider.
When the horse gates flew open in 2006, Lowe was able to execute his game, on a daily basis.
……………..
Lowe himself sees it exactly this way, that he had a JJ Putz-style breakthrough:
"I put in a lot of work in the off-season developing my slider," said Lowe. "You need to have a second pitch to be successful. Without my slider, I wouldn't be where I am today…" (UT-Arlington Release)
.
Q: What does he throw?
A: Napalm.
(1) 94-97 fastball
(2) Strikeout high-80's slider, no hump to it, comes in hard and flat and rolls off the table with a sharp, late break
(3) Change with heavy sinking action (similar shape to slider, hard to distinguish without velocity readings)
(x) A semi-short-arm delivery gives him excellent deception into the bargain.
A lot of people expressed surprise at Lowe's fastball. Just watching him on tape you can see the leverage and snap he gets. With his body, delivery, and snap I'd be amazed if he didn't throw 95.
Or, they'll complain that 95-97 was on the fast gun. That's fine; apples-to-apples, baby. Gil Meche is 92 on the same gun. Jarrod Washburn is 86 on that gun. Joel Pineiro is 88.
JJ Putz is 94-98 and so, apparently, is Mark Lowe.
………………
The reports on Lowe's stuff had been:
1. Legit 94+ fastball with terrific life and run — boring into RH, like Rivera's cutter (this turned out to be off base; Lowe's FB is straight, though with late life)
2. Sweeping Jeff Weaver-, Jeff-Nelson style RH curve (actually it's a 12-6 hard slider)
3. Garcia-style straight change with screwball action away from LH (haven't seen it)
H. Will not be chased off the plate, and can spot the ball for quality strikes (a la Jered Weaver this year)
But, again, in reality it turned out to be a "hopping" mid-90's fastball and a Nageotte-ish power overhand slider. Who does this remind us of? Get to that in a minute.
.
Q: Why do you say his slider is plus-plus?
A: An hour of frame-by-frame, baby… beats losing to grandmasters at internet chess…
Lowe's slider comes in high-80's, looking JUUUUUST like a fastball — and the semi-shortarm gives him great deception. Then it rolls off the top of the cotton-pickin' table, straight down. Dives like a stukka, where'd it go?
On July 7, Placido Polanco, very tough to fan, took a terrible swing at it and struck out. Magglio Ordonez — maybe you've heard of him — got two of them, and looked like he was trying to hit a knuckleball.
Polanco — who chokes way up — fouled off a two-strike slider by golfing it out of the dirt. The next pitch, Lowe's slider started thigh-high … well above the knees … and Johjima fished it out of the dirt. Polanco struck out gruesomely.
(Edit to add, see comments #11 and #12 below. Lowe's change apparently has the same shape as his slider, making him thrice wicked…)
Do not let anybody tell you that Mark Lowe's offspeed stuff is anything other than devastating.
……………..
To be fair, when Lowe gets the slider UP — letter high — it rolls, and does not break. Brandon Inge smashed a rolling letter-high slider for the double on Friday. Lowe threw a couple of those early.
When Lowe gets the slider thigh-high, it looks just like a fastball and then it takes a spitball-like action. I like his slider as much as I liked Clint Nageotte's. Grok that, Lazarus Long.
………………
You hear managers say this all the time, "the curve breaks when he gets it down." I don't usually buy that, but with Mark Lowe it is gospel. The slider's down, it's murder. It's up, it hangs.
.
Q: Is the fastball plus?
A: It is definitely two feet longer than a good ML fastball, but the great thing is the life on it. It is tight-spin, holds its velocity well.
And, it comes from behind his ear, kind of. You can just visualize how hard it is to pick up, and how hard to separate from the slider.
Lowe was nervous on Friday, missed badly with some FB's … but about half of them, he threw into the mitt. If Mark Lowe could paint with that FB, the way he did *at times* Friday, it's all over.
.
Q: Can he mix the pitches?
A: I was particularly taken with his pitch sequence to Magglio Ordonez (3 on, 2 out):
1. Slider low-away, a foot outside, MO leans over and takes for ball one: 1-0
2. Slider away on black, MO fans weakly, top hand coming off awkwardly: 1-1
3. 97 fastball low-away, MO takes passively — thought it was a slider till it didn't break: 1-2
4. 96 fastball away, fouled back over the 1B dugout
5. Slider away, 8" outside: 2-2
6. Hellacious slider waist-to-knees, garbage swing as if at knuckleball: K
What are interesting are pitches #2, #3, and #6.
Lowe can "waste" a breaking pitch for a ball — and then come back with the same speed slider, next pitch, and it's just as tough.
Also, when Lowe gets a slider for a strike, the fastball is extra crispy, because the hitter starts out with the slider in his mind … and the slider simply doesn't break.
Lowe's tough.
……………….
Q: How are his mechanics?
A: Somebody want to tell me where Mark Lowe got a classic Japanese delivery?!
Believe me now or believe me later. Lowe's delivery is just like Daisuke Matsuzaka's, except he doesn't get quite as low. Or his delivery is just like Kazuhiro Sasaki's, except he's a little more short-arm than Sasaki was.
Check it out:
1. High knee kick that raises the CG - as his hands raise a bit (ten chi 'floating' movement)
2. Extreme sink as the hands also sink to express the ki intentionality (heaven-to-earth movement)
3. Hip crooks forward as torso leans back towards CF to synch the weight with the path of the ball in backstroke
4. Circular movement of both hands together as back knee compresses extremely
5. Extreme "splay" of all 4 limbs, glove and lead shoe flying towards hitter in harmony
6. Nice drive down centerline, head and eyes rock-steady all the way through
7. Easy, comfortable deceleration with all body parts harmonizing
This style creates a very fluid relationship between the shoulders and the arc of the ball. This is one of the big "secrets" that allow Matsuzaka, Sasaki, et al to endure much more workload than American pitchers.
The arm does not fight against the shoulders — the shoulders and left arm are in harmony with the right arm from start to finish. This is emphasized by the rearward lean of the shoulders — in America it is only the arm that "reaches for the CF." In Japan the entire torso reaches for the CF.
It is quite remarkable that Lowe "floats" his weight before dropping it. This isn't the American "stand tall in your leg kick" (to straighten the spine and head on the CL). This is floating the weight aikido-style — the hands express it.
It allows Lowe ease into his sink gracefully and create a "circular" weight movement. It is a "raising of the hammer" before it falls, and because the raising is gentle, the falling is gentle.
I have never seen an American pitcher with such a Japanese pitching style. I wonder how he came up with it. Instinctively, I guess.
Lowe doesn't get as low as Matsuzaka, and he shouldn't. He's too long to do that; he'd get off balance. He doesn't extend his back arm quite like Sasaki, which gives him greater deception.
.
Q: Does this mean that Lowe is a good bet to stay healthy?
A: Did Sasaki and Matsuzaka stay healthy?
Lowe has the great motion, plus the great pitcher's body, plus the electric arm, plus the nice easy college usage. Everything's in his favor except college K/BB ratio, which is neutral.
Mark Lowe has a Derek Lowe body that the scouts always loved. The original scouts' comp to Danny Darwin is, we assume, a reference to Darwin's body (and his home state of Texas) and temperament (won't be chased out of the zone), rather than to Darwin's motion or to his stuff. But Danny Darwin was a very fine pitcher, 3,000 IP in the bigs at an above-average ERA.
.
Q: How did the light come on for him?
A: He's a bright, determined kid who searched for truth open-mindedly until he found it. Quickly.
In the college paper, the (unnamed) writer did a very fine job getting to the point - much better in fact than the usual:
"I owe a lot to my pitching coach last year Brad Holman," said Lowe. "He helped me to understand my delivery and figure out what I was doing. He helped me to be able to figure out what I did wrong on the next pitch, instead of three or four pitches later. He stuck with me through a rough year and talked to me about the mental aspect of the game and how to always think positive."
At Inland Empire, pitching coach Scott Budner continued to teach me the mental aspects of the game and helped me put it all together. As long as I stay positive, there is nowhere to go but up."
.
Q: If he failed, how would he fail?
A: That is a question for which we usually have a suggestion. Not this time.
Okay, if hitters could let his slider drop below the knees, and sit dead-red, AND if Lowe couldn't locate, he could have problems.
I can't see it. Lowe's slider is thrown for a called strike. His mechanics and his results and his Friday game all indicate that he can move the FB around the zone. I can't imagine how he'd fail.
The slider is repeatable. So's the fastball. Both are thrown for called strikes. His mechanics are gorgeous. I don't know how he would stop executing his own game.
I guess he'll have to get hurt. Or Hargroved.
.
Q: Speaking of which, how's his makeup?
A: His debut on Friday, after two bad breaks, said it all. The kid wants the ball and he isn't fazed by bad bounces — or by MLB debuts.
He snapped the ball back, stepped back up quickly on the mound, leaned into his work … Friday he looked just like his 2006 statlines suggest. Start, close, new league, just gimme the ball.
In this case, I buy his quote (see the UT-Arlington link) upon getting called up to Seattle:
"I just have to continue to do what I have been doing all season. The mound is still 60 feet, six inches from home plate and the only difference is there will be more people in the stands watching. I am not just satisfied with getting, I am here to stay."
.
Q: Most-comparable pitchers?
A: Can't think of an SP. In relief, Francisco Rodriguez. Actually JJ Putz has similarities too, though Lowe has the changeup that has aided him as a SP in the minors.
Which SP has a sizzling, short-arm FB with life, and an 87 slider the bottom falls out of? John Smoltz?
You tell me of a pitcher who pounds you with an attack fastball and has a power high-80's 12-6 slider that looks exactly the same out of his hand. No AL pitchers of the last 20 years come to mind. Would like to hear your suggestions… I'm guessing they don't run 5.50 ERA's, amigo.
.
Q: Should he start or relieve?
A: Should Roy Halladay start or relieve? Where's he more valuable?
I don't doubt that the M's are planning on converting him back to SP, after an Earl Weaver period in the pen.
First guy to argue that Lowe would be great in relief gets punk-slapped… no, this time, I'm going to try to ignore all the conversation about what a great reliever he'd be…. Dr. D can't afford to be cranky about everything 
.
Q: Where's Lowe headed from here?
A: If he executes his pitches the way he did on Friday night, he's a blue-chip prospect. He's got the array of career paths in front of him that other blue-chip prospects have — wash out, #3 SP, All-Star, whatever.
When we say that Lowe is a Garcia-, Weaver-type prospect, we do not mean that we expect Lowe to run a 6-0, 1.75 record if he goes into the rotation. Nobody expected Jered Weaver himself to do what Weaver's doing.
We mean that he is landing in the AL with true plus-plus stuff, with the moxie of a Weaver or Garcia. And that he has the same potential.
D-O-V isn't afraid to say "fuhgeddaboudit" on pitchers we don't care for … Sean Green, Julio Mateo, Brandon Morrow, whoever.
But let other blogs play "no cheering in the press box" on this one. It's about time the M's had an arm pan out. Mark Lowe is a blue-chipper. Enjoy the ride.
Be Afraid,
Dr D
July 29th, 2007 at 2:35 am Quote
Thought’s on Mark Lowe’s first outing back vs. Oakland?
0.1ip
0h
0er
1w
0k
July 29th, 2007 at 11:55 am Quote
The mild dose of wildness was to be expected given the butterflies he must have been feeling and the rust he had to knock off…no worries there. He threw hard (94-97 mph), the splitter was a little flat but that was probably because he threw it too hard (it was coming in at 88, it used to be 84 or 83)…again…butterflies.
He looked great to me.
February 2nd, 2008 at 5:20 am Quote
Word on Lowe is good going into ST. The original article above was pretty fun for *me* to read, anyway. ;- ) Have to take a little satisfaction in having posted it the night after one performance, so cut us some slack…
………………
Lowe’s motion is very conducive to health, as noted above, but the mechanics are one thing, the soft tissue (and apparently bones!) another thing.
After the surgery, Dr. D wrote him off more ruthlessly than anybody, but G-Money (e.g. #272 above) said NADA. G’s medical schedule has arrived at each station with the efficiency of a Japanese magno-train…
Would like to hear your health prognosis for ‘08, G.
………………..
When Lowe came up, he was a better pitcher than JJ Putz is now. And one of the most entertaining to watch that I’ve ever seen …. Japanese lean-back-the-shoulders delivery, Jeff Nelson whiparound …. 20-megaton fastball and a slider that got the same kind of swings as a knuckleball does.
I’m still in “believe it when I see it” mode, but Lowe is an interesting wildcard going into ST.
If he has his stuff back, he’s going to add a lot of joy to Mudville…
February 2nd, 2008 at 9:22 am Quote
*sigh* Re-reading this thread reminded me of just how awesome Lowe was and just how cool it would be to see him in the ‘pen again.
February 27th, 2008 at 2:16 pm Quote
300 comments deleted as we trimmed the DB :- /
=== G-MONEYBALL ===
You’re the guru on Lowe. How about a prediction for his ‘08 season bud?
February 27th, 2008 at 4:08 pm Quote
Seriously? I said when he had his surgery that if it went well that this would be the year you’d see it. I think it went well, so I think we’ll see it.
55 IP, 48 hits, 60K/22BB, 1 trip to the DL for either “tendonitis” or “sore elbow” as the cartilage takes one last chance to growl bitterly at him before finding its happy place and shutting up.
This should be the year he finds it again. I expect the Ms to be uncomfortable and let him start in Tacoma, and then once he starts mowing guys down he should get a May callup.
Fingers crossed…a healthy Lowe makes our pen really dangerous - at least to righties.
~G
February 27th, 2008 at 4:29 pm Quote
48 hits…you sure it won’t be 47 hits?
Seriously though…I hope you’re right about that…Lowe would really be a boost.
February 27th, 2008 at 6:08 pm Quote
If Lowe can be a RH force in the pen, it frees up Morrow for other duty. Gee, I wonder what duty THAT might be?
March 26th, 2008 at 4:19 pm Quote
Geoff Baker tips us off that Mark Lowe’s last three pitches of the game today were 96, 96, 96.
The guy we saw in 2006 had some of the most vicious stuff we’ve seen, ever.
March 26th, 2008 at 4:34 pm Quote
That is encouraging. If he and Morrow round into shape, this will be the best pitching staff 1-12 that I can remember in Seattle. All those comfortable at bats that teams are used to getting when they play the M’s? History.
March 26th, 2008 at 4:49 pm Quote
I hope we can keep Rhodes. He was throwing 91 yesterday with a nasty slow slider. I think he could really be big from the left side.
March 26th, 2008 at 4:52 pm Quote
If Mark Lowe is right, or even close to what he was when he came up, then this team will absolutely annihilate the competition in the late innings.
I like Rhodes too, Matt. Especially with the loss of Sherrill, I’m hoping that we keep our options open on this front. Rhodes almost certainly won’t be able to fill his shoes, but if he could provide a MRP/#2 lefty specialist out of the ‘pen, then he’d be a worthy keeper on the roster. There’s an example of veteran presence that I think might contribute on its own..but then I think pitchers have the potential to produce a greater impact on younger players than position players.
March 26th, 2008 at 5:10 pm Quote
Especially bullpen pitchers. The kids talk during the game…Rhodes watches the game. Have you ever sat and watched him in the bullpen? I remember when he was an Oriole…even then when I went to games at Camden Yards (only been to a few, but still), Rhodes always seemed to be intensely focused on the game from the bullpen…he’s make conversation but always with his head pointed at the pitcher’s mound. I think having Rhodes in the pen would be an asset for the kids…they could pick his brain about how he goes about facing that big hitter etc and really learn about the art of deception and using both sides of the plate.
Meanwhile, I agree…if Lowe can really throw 96 and get his deadfish splitter working again, this league is DEAD once we get a lead in the 6th.
March 26th, 2008 at 6:26 pm Quote
Yeah, how many teams have three legit closers on their roster? Putz/Lowe/Morrow is an amazing tandem when it comes right down to it. Would be like Papelbon/Soriano/Benitez(in his prime). Whatcha gonna do against that? I mean seriously..you’re gonna get demoralized in a hurry if you’ve got those guys slamming the door in your face night after night.
March 26th, 2008 at 6:49 pm Quote
you forgot Rowland-Smith, Rhodes and O’Flaherty. And oh…if you get a lead on us early, here’s your knuckle ball hurling long man to keep it close so you can forget about easy wins.
March 26th, 2008 at 7:11 pm Quote
Rhodes is a team player. He got sent to AAA to continue building arm strength and he reported. Reitsma went home to consider his options. Don’t let the door hit you in the tail on the way out, Chrissy.
March 26th, 2008 at 9:35 pm Quote
In defense of “Chrissy” - entirely different situation. Reitsma, while he has had some limited measure of success, has never been the established dominator that Rhodes has. At his relatively young age, he’s not in the same kind of position that Rhodes is in. I certainly don’t begrudge a guy for trying to figure out if staying in a crowded organization is the right thing for him.
Not a fan of him as a pitcher, but he seems like a pretty good guy and these guys aren’t strato cards…it’s his life he’s considering here. If I’m the M’s, I let him have that time, within reason. You treat you people, all of them, like people. That’s win-win.