=== JIMENEZ EYES AAA STARDOM ===

YOWCH!  He had a no-no into the 8th or 9th inning, last time out …

Monday?  Senor Jimenez fires yet another shutout — 8 IP, 0 R, with five hits, 2 walks and 1 strikeout.

Leaving him with this string of bodies littered on the roadway behind his coche:

7/03 - 8 IP, 0 R  … 2 BB 1 K (five hits)

6/28 - 9 IP, 0 R … 2 BB 4 K (one hit)

6/23 - 5 IP, 1 R … 6 BB 4 K (two hits) 

6/16 - 6 IP, 0 R … 2 BB 5 K (five hits)

6/11 - 5 IP, 0 R … 2 BB 2 K (four hits)

6/05 - 5 IP, 0 R … 3 BB 3 K (two hits)

Prior to this streak, he was 1-5, 6.64 in his first exposure to AAA at 21.  Well, not exactly his first exposure; he got 7 IP at the end of 2005.  But you know what we mean; he's in the PCL very young.

Jimenez is reported to throw an 89 fastball, an excellent change that is his money pitch, and is reported to be working on his curve.  His statlines and career arc suggest that, for his age, he is really good at knowing how to set up that change (high K's for that kind of toolbox), and pretty good at keeping the FB out of the wheelhouse (low ERA for age, level, and lack of velocity).

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=== BPV's Dept. ===

Mr. Jemanji:  Whew, 1 run in 38 innings?  Musta been dealin', right?

Dr. Detecto:  Not so fast … that's 19 K and 17 BB.  If I hadn't showed the ER, you'd have actually said he'd been struggling. 

Mr. Jemanji:  19 hits in 38 innings?  Nobody's getting a bat on the ball against him…

Dr. Detecto:  But his K rate has been only 4.5, below average, so he's just been fantastically lucky on BABIP, right?  Case closed.  He's had a BABIP miracle for 38 innings.  Fuhgeddaboudit.

Mr. Jemanji:  But change-of-speed artists get weak swings, right, like Moyer and Zito do?  So the BABIP isn't necessarily lucky, especially in the short term?

Dr. Detecto:  But BABIP can't deflect by 100+ points.  Some of that is bound to be luck.

Mr. Jemanji:  But also notice the 0 HR in 38 innings.  No doubt this 38-inning stretch has involved a lot of garbage swings by hitters out on their front foot.  He's been whipping the hitters.

Dr. Detecto:  Well, I agree with you on one thing.  BABIP and HR/FB and xFIP and all those stats have become a dogma-Jekyll from which we all need to Hyde.  BABIP doesn't say that every individual 2-hit, 1-K shutout is luck; it only says that in the very long term, like 400 innings, breaks even out.

It does sound like Jimenez has been just flat beating the hitters for a month.

……………

Summing it all up, then?  For sure Jimenez has had the benefit of a couple hot shots a game that were at fielders.

But just as sure is the fact that change-speed Jimenez has been getting batters to flail weakly and defensively at the ball.  BABIP is reliable in the long term, but in the short term (say, 1 game, or 4 games) a pitcher might easily produce a whole game full of terrible swings.

Jimenez hasn't been dominant, not with a 19/17 control ratio.  But he has "jelled" in terms of tricking AAA batters and pulling the string on them.  The light had to have come on for him, and he's on a nice roll of out-thinking the batters.

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=== SCOUTING REPORT ===

Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeere's JFro!  …and G-Money.  Who have followed Jimenez quite a while.  And here's a LINK.  For those of you who haven't been to Mariner Minors, these guys are Baseball America-quality minors reporters.  Except they specialize in the M's, so they're better.  Mariner Minors is a treasure.

Bear in mind that this is a preseason report.

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Cesar Jimenez, 11/12/1984, 5’11”, 190 lbs, LHP
3-5, 2.62 ERA in 68.2 IP, 64 hits (3 HR), 21 runs (20 ER), 54/24 K/BB

J: After Travis Blackley went under the knife last year, G and I had a short debate as to who currently had the best change-up in the system, Bobby Livingston or Cesar Jimenez? G’s already made his case for the guy who he thinks has the best change, so let me step in and make my argument for who I think has some of the best speed changing instincts in the org.

By most accounts you’ll hear, Jimenez was a two-pitch pitcher from when he was signed on through the end of last season. Most of the guys you’ll hear about who’ve pulled this trick off through the low minors are power pitchers, and their repertoire usually consists of a fastball and a wicked breaking pitch. In Jimenez’ case, he didn’t have that added velocity advantage, and instead sits in the high 80’s, about major league average, and had no breaking pitch to speak of, relying instead on a change-up thrown at the appropriate time. With just that, he was striking out 7.1 per nine since coming to the U.S.

While this is all good and fine for the lower levels of the minor leagues, around double-A, hitters start to recognize to recognize change-ups, and I feared that something terrible would happen once Cesar got to Texas. Then, all winter on the Lara Cardenales message board, I kept hearing about this curveball he’d started throwing… and by the time he got to Texas this year, it seemed to be at least a passable pitch, or at least the comments about him lacking a breaking ball have died down significantly.

His stuff is still screaming more starter than reliever, and he seems to survive—scratch that, dominate every LVBP season that he’s down there, so maybe he’ll head back at some point, but there’s no denying it: the kid knows how to pitch, even if he doesn’t have great velocity.

G: First allow me to say blast you, JFrom, for reminding me of the devastation of the Blackley surgery.” Talk about a soft-tossing supreme talent…

But then the Ms seem to want to stockpile those. We’ve signed dozens trying to recapture the Moyer Magic, but it’s possible we finally found it in an undrafted free agent from Venezuela. If not, we may at least be on the right track to find us a Trevor Hoffman.

Cesar’s work as a starter in our system is not bad – merely undistinguished. We moved him to the pen full-time in 2004, whether to protect his teenage arm or to try to raise his mediocre strikeouts I couldn’t say, but his Ks jumped by 3 per 9 with the move and he’s never looked back.

For a changeup pitcher he does a good job of keeping the ball in the park (20 HR in 300+ IP) and with the curve JFrom mentioned he’s adding another pitch for batters to see and have to keep in the back of their minds. We just talked about how young Fruto is, but Cesar’s 6 months younger and has never been plagued with Fruitcake’s maddening inconsistencies.

He, too, has time to hone his craft, but even as-is he’s quite an interesting arm. With his one plus pitch – the changeup – and a passable FB and hook, he could do quite well for the Ms. I don’t think they’re going to let him try to start again, but as long as he keeps striking batters out I’m sure we can find a job for him somewhere…

Good job as always, amigos.

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=== Dr's Prognosis ===

Haven't seen Jimenez yet in person and he doesn't start in Cheney for quite a while, I don't think.

Let's assume that Jimenez really has this crackerjack straight change, and let's further assume that he has excellent poise and pitchability (very likely, considering his age and league and the M's fast promotions of him).

In that case, the key issue is his mistake avoidance — his HR rate.

JOHN BENSON LAW:  AAA pitchers are very, very good pitchers, amigos.  They are absolutely excellent.  The differences between an average ML pitcher, and a very good AAA pitcher, are subtle.

The differences between a good ML pitcher who is an 89-mph lefty, and a good AAA pitcher who is an 89-mph lefty, are especially subtle.

Mark Beuhrle and Tom Glavine and Scott McGregor and Jimmy Key are (were) special because they could go an entire game without centering a fastball.  That will be the biggest thing for Jimenez also — can he make FEWER mistakes than OTHER good PCL lefties.

This isn't something that is easy to project, especially not having seen him or his mechanics.  We'll have to leave ya with an admonition to watch Jimenez' HR rates.  They have to be very low, and especially they have to be very low without walking people.  In other words, he has to have command in the zone without "nibbling" and throwing pitches OFF the plate.  (His K/BB ratios, and his high BB vs low H — those suggest that he is doing just that, nibbling.)

Jimenez' career doesn't depend on his developing a plus curve ball — you can pitch in the bigs with a terrific straight change and a fastball.  But he DOES have to paint with the FB and does have to keep the change down.

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=== Paul-age Dept. ===

Paul at Mariner Morsels has some sweet pics on Sr. Jimenez: 

Interesting screwball action here.

Need to see him pitch, but it's a drop-and-drive in the styles of Jeff Fassero and Bobby Madritsch.  Note the belt buckle and chest in the 2nd photo.

Can't say I like the followthrough or the elbow action from a DL standpoint, but hey.  Whatever.  Gotta go see him.

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=== Rocky MCXLIIQS Dept. ===

Dr. D is quick to believe in this kind of pitcher … right after he finishes 200 IP with a 3.50 ERA in Safeco, we'll be right on his bandwagon. 

The difference between Mark Buehrle and 1,000 Cesar Jimenezes is hair-fine.  Will Jimenez be one of the few who achieve the phenomenal mistake avoidance that separates him from other AAA pitchers like him?  Who knows.  Doubt it.

But he is obviously young, and I'm pretty sure he's lefty, and he has to have a good head judging by the M's rushing of him and by his quick adjustment this year …

The thing to do with underdogs like Cesar Jimenez and Bryan LaHair is to simply let them play.  Keep promoting them and see what you have.  It doesn't matter to Bryan LaHair that he still isn't on USSM's top Mariner 40, despite his rampage through 3 levels of the minors — it only matters whether he can hit a PCL curve ball.

It doesn't matter to Cesar Jimenez whether Dr. D predicts him for stardom — it only matters whether he commands his fastball and keeps his change down and gets AL hitters out.

Let him pitch.  See what you have.  It's all about who performs.  And right now, Jimenez and LaHair are the ones who are whuppin' the other PCL'ers.

Cheers,

Dr D