Originally posted June 28, 2006.  Bumped for discussion of SP alternatives to Schmidt - Dr. D

Don't look now, but the M's have a traffic jam.  In lineup slots. 

Adam Jones is going to turn Jeremy Reed into a 4th OF in a matter of months, if not weeks.  Jones just now, just this month, got on top of the AAA strike zone. He showed it in the box Thursday — you could visibly watch him decide on the pitches with confidence –, and this week he has begun showing it in his K/BB's.  (In his last six games, starting with the extra-innings win vs Portland IIRC, he has 4 BB's vs 2 K's, a serious heat wave of eye ratio by his standards.)

You can call Adam Jones up tomorrow.  He can patrol CF and hit .210 as well as Jeremy Reed can ….

I know, I know, I'm crazy.  So what else is new.  But I'm telling you.  Jones has solved the AAA strike zone.  He's ready to begin learning in the major leagues.

Other blogs will laugh at the absurdity of Jones-to-Safeco for three weeks, and then will suddenly (after hearing it from elsewhere) start reporting Jones' readiness for the majors as if it were news.  We looooove the drill ……… LOL. 

Y'read it here first.  Adam Jones is now ready to go.  We saws it with me' own eyes.

……………….. 

Chris Snelling is slated by the M's to take Carl Everett's slot soon … so sez Prospect Insider, as well as all common sense.

Okay.  Fine.  Jones to CF, and Snelling to DH.

Beautiful.  But then where do you even put Jeff Clement, or Asdrubal Cabrera, or or Shin-Soo Choo, or all the guys who are going to be repeating AAA in 2007, such as Bryan LaHair?  Choo will be doing the Puyallup for the third time next year.

Where do you even put them in 2008?

Traffic jam.

………………..

In roto, the solution is simple.

You make a 3-for-1, and acquire a crown jewel for your pitching staff.  You give your #26 and #27 and #28 players to somebody who needs them, and you consolidate them into one MVP- or Cy-candidate basket. 

The other guy needs three decent, cheap players more than he needs one expensive star, and for you it's vice-versa.  It's win-win.  Happens all the time, in roto and in the majors. 

This July 31 and this offseason, the M's should be shooting for 2 impact SP's.  It's the only logical Grand Scheme that suits this roster and this organization. 

Actually they should be shooting for 3 impact SP's, but this is the M's, not the Red Sox or White Sox.   

=== Better Than Their Stats Dept. ===

See comments #58-63 for remarks on why "normalized" stats like xFIP undersell Barry Zito.

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=== Dr D on the Phone, Dept. ===

If it's my team, I get on the phone and call Billy Beane about Barry Zito.  His K rate is around 7, still, and he's still a Grade A starter.  A few years ago, his peripherals looked scary, but he has totally reversed those trends.  He's good to go.  What is he, 8-3, 3.38 I think?

The A's aren't going to be able to re-sign him, probably.  He wants to come to Seattle.  He'll sign.  He'll be a lefty in Safeco.  He's my in-season target.

…………………. 

Billy Beane will be well aware of Shin-Soo Choo's virtues, much more so than M's fans are. 

Or if not Choo, I'm going to ask Beane about his interest in Jeremy Reed - a moneyball player if there ever was one.  Hey, Billy, we baked the cake … it's just about ready to serve.  Reed is on the brink of completing his apprenticeship…  we got his pesky two years of learning out of the way for you.  Man, if I were Billy Beane, I would be all over Jeremy Reed.

Beane is also going to be well aware of Francisco Cruceta's virtue, and that will give him his MLB-ready, moneyball (high-K) SP.  Of course he can have Emiliano Fruto if he prefers.  M's fans, as usual, talk about their own hot prospect as though he were slug slime, but AA managers voted Fruto the *best* relief prospect in the Texas League.  AA managers qualify as "scouts," I think.  Scouts know that Fruto's a blue-chipper.

I'm going to give him those two — or equivalents of his choosing — and two more good prospects in a 4-for-1, and I'm going to sign Zito to a longterm deal.

Let's say Beane wants Choo/Reed, Cruceta, Rob Johnson, and Bobby Livingston, or the equivalent.  Maybe he wants Tuiasosopo or Cabrera in there somewhere, or George Sherrill.  Done.  It isn't the way GM's usually do business, but it's the way I do business:  decide what you want, and make it happen. 

The M's might be thinking, wait until this offseason so you don't have to trade anything … c'mon.  The FA market is as fickle as Madonna.  What happened last year?  You missed out on all the USDA choice, and had to give Benihana prices for Sizzler quality.  Why put yourself at the mercy of a Scott Boras when you can seal the deal on Zito right now… 

……………….. 

This offseason, it's Matsuzaka of course if that's do-able, or it's any one of the premium SP's like Schmidt, Mussina, Buehrle or Smoltz.  Preferably Buehrle.

Hey, if it's my team, it is TWO of those pitchers, plus Zito… don't tell me you can't do it, especially if you backload one of them to collect after Sexson's contract is up (Clement replaces him in two years). 

Imagine Felix, Zito, Matsuzaka, Washburn, and possibly Buehrle … $40-50m in the rotation, plus Felix, and all the cheap young scrubs dealing 5+ run per game death in the lineup.  Heh, heh, HEH. 

HERE is a link on the 2007 budget — $25m+ clear — and HERE is a link on the FA starting pitchers this offseason. 

Cheers,

Dr D