Poor Ichiro… next year, if he hits .244 in April, do you doubt that he'll be written off again?  Cry

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I wonder what it is about Ichiro, that makes him so hard to believe.  Y'believe that he's a star, when and only when his stats are glossy.  If his stats are not glittering, we're overwhelmed with doubt about him.  

Always. 

Ichiro, sabermetrically, isn't hard to believe at all.  He's a very fast LH leadoff hitter with tremendous contact ability, SB's, and "invisible bases" 1st-to-3rd, and he hits the ball on the ground.  How could he fail to hit .300+ and score 100 runs?  Next year, 2007, how could he possibly fail to score 100 runs?

From a tools-scout point of view, he's very obviously one of the Few Chosen … a small guy with an amazing arm and can catch the ball behind his back and six different swings and supreme bat control and yada yada yada. 

But there is something about him, that makes Seattle fans look at Ichiro and say, "it just can't be."

Is it that he's Japanese?  Is it that he's small?  Is it that he is a model number that we've never seen before — a small speedy RF with high AVG, gap power, no walks?

I dunno, but Seattle has given up on Ichiro at least five different times…

.

=== BY THE NUMBERS Dept. ===

.372 - Ichiro's AVG vs LHP, last three years (.491 SLG)

.312 - Ichiro's AVG vs RHP, last three years (.422 SLG)

NO - Can Dr. D think of any other LH hitter with this *kind* of reverse platoon split

Hits hot shots to LF - Why Ichiro does so well vs LHP (also longer throws for IF's that way) (Edit to add:  see comments #5 and #6 for Japanese fans' vastly better answers to this)

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218 - Hits, season, prorated

5 - What is Ichiro's streak of 200-hit years (will be 6 this year)

3 - What is Michael Young's streak of 200-hit years

1 - What is the next-best AL streak of 200-hit years (Jeter) 

Three or four - How many AL hitters usually get 200 hits (one always being Ichiro) 

.388 - What is Ichiro hitting, last 30 games (50/129) 

.177 to .320 - Ichiro's change in AVG over those games

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1 in 24 years - How many Mariner teams had 100 runs from leadoff, 1977-2000 (Cora 105, 1997)

No - Was this the fault of Griffey, Buhner, ARod, and Edgar, or the Kingdome

Yes - Was this 1-in-24 stat because it is very hard to score 100 runs 

6 in 6 years - How many Mariner teams had 100 runs from leadoff, 2001-2006 

No - Has Ichiro had Griffey, Edgar, ARod, and Buhner hitting behind him

No - Has Ichiro played in the Kingdome 

No - Do R and RBI merely reflect the guys around you 

116 - Runs, Ichiro, 2006 season prorated

114 - Runs, Ichiro, per 162 games, career 

80 - How many runs would a fairly good leadoff hitter score for this lineup 

No - Has Ichiro ever failed to score 100 runs in major leagues 

No - Will he fail to score 100 runs in 2006

Yes - Is Ichiro a HOF leadoff hitter 

No - Do M's fans generally enjoy watching their HOF'ers and appreciate them as such

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1-0 and 2-1 … on what counts is Ichiro most deadly in 2006

.600 … What is Ichiro's batting average on these counts this season (18-for-30!)

0-0 … On what count is Ichiro hitting .389 this year (7-for-18)

Yes - Does this suggest that Ichiro has shaken off the "take the first pitch" syndrome 

.370 - What did Ichiro hit on the first pitch, 2003-2005

.405 - What did Ichiro hit on 1-0, 2003-2005 

Early in the count - When should you make sure to be watching an Ichiro AB

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8 - What is Ichiro's usual triples total

11 - What is his prorated 3B's total, 2006

5 - What is Ichiro's usual GIDP total

3 - What is his prorated GIDP total, 2006 

38 - What is Ichiro's usual SB total

52 - What is Ichiro's prorated SB total, 2006

.77 - What is Ichiro's usual SB %

.88 - What is Ichiro's SB % in 2006 

9 - What is Ichiro's current SB streak with no CS

Speed Score - What do these kinds of statistics, as a group, reflect

Faster - Is the 32-year-old Ichiro faster, or slower, than before, statistically

 

Cheers,

Dr D