DETECT-O-VISION » POTD: Guillermo Quiroz

Your 'distinctively D-O-V' (smile) take on Guillermo Quiroz …

Baseball America published their 2006 Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects and left Quiroz "just out of" the Top 10. Quiroz had been #3 in the system in both 2003 and 2004, and #9 in the AAA International League generally. Why was he dropped for 2006?

Q:

Micah Kishard from NYC asks:
Guillermo Quiroz seemed on the fast track to the bigs and a potential future all-star. He was hurt most of last year..did his injury cause him to drop out of the Top 10 or does he no longer have a bright future

A:

Matt Eddy: Because he’s missed so much time to injury, it’s no longer clear what we can expect from Qurioz. I moved him just out of the Top 10, but the Jays are still impressed with his raw power and his throwing arm, but that’s balanced by how sloppy he looked behind the plate in the AFL. Is he merely regaining his strength and stamina, or did he peak in the EL in ’03? He’ll battle Jason Phillips for backup catcher duties in Toronto, but might be best served with some Triple-A time.

D-O-V Translation: "With Quiroz injured a lot, we spent last year looking at other players and those are the guys who have our attention now." We're not trying to be sarcastic; that's our objective intepretation of this kind of situation with BA scouts.

Q: Does he have "future All-Star talent" like this Jays fan assumes?

A: Quiroz had a sensational 2003 season — his MLE was 5.7 runs created per game, which would more or less make him the best-hitting catcher in the majors, and that was at 21!

Quiroz was also rated *very* high on prospect lists — ratings that were consistent with those of, say, Adam Jones or even Jeff Clement.

He also played in the 2003 or 04 Futures, IIRC.

It is very important to realize that few catchers are *capable* of performances like Quiroz' in 2003, at that age. You can't shrug it off as a fluke; it represents talent that is not present in other minor leaguers.

What would you say if the M's had a 21-year-old catcher who hit 20 homers in 369 AB's (30+ prorated HR's) in double-A? He'd be one of the M's top few prospects.

Q: Why did his stock drop in 2004-05?

A: He had a Snelling-esque run of injuries … in 2004 he moved up to AAA and at 22, ran an MLE of 4.1 runs created per game. This is a positive, not a negative, performance.

However, it certainly does not increase his rating from 2003. Quiroz' 2004 performance does not by itself further suggest that you're looking at an MLB All-Star … but neither does it contradict his 2003 performance.

In 2005 Quiroz had few AB's, but did slug almost .500 in 83 AB's in triple-A.

Basically you've got a mega-prospect who went up to AAA/MLB, was hurt a lot for two years, and showed inconclusive results during those two injury years.

Out of sight, out of mind. It's "no longer clear" what Quiroz can do, if you're a tools scout who needs to have seen a player go deep, yesterday, to maintain confidence in him. We don't mean that as a knock; it's just the way scouts are. They want you to have shown them your skills, today.

Q: What do you think of the charge that he is a mistake hitter?

A: It's a vanilla label that can be applied to almost any hitter in baseball, majors or minors. Nobody hits a Barry Zito back-door curve. Nobody hits a Roger Clemens fastball on the hands.

Everybody fans on a good 12-6 hook — Richie Sexson struck out 167 times last year. All hitters make their money on fastballs that miss over the plate and curves that hang.

Usually (not always) when scouts apply this to hitters, what it means is just that they don't particularly like a player. It's a generic "I have questions about him" label. From the same scouts, we heard this applied to Matt Tuiasosopo at 18 years old, slap me silly, that he had some problems hitting a real good curve. LOL.

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Considering Quiroz' interview (below), I don't doubt at all that he has been a "first-pitch fastball hitter." The learning plateau from AA to AAA is a normal part of any good hitter's development arc.

To take a great AA hitter, who was slowed down in his first look at AAA finesse pitching, and say "this guy needs work waiting on the pitch," isn't a knock. It's what talented hitters need to learn.

You can't teach talent. You can teach patience.

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Same goes for the scouts' complaints about Quiroz' defense in the AFL. I love scouts, but sometimes they're just overeager with their clipboards and lose perspective.

It's possible that Quiroz suddenly became a lousy defensive catcher, after the strong reports the last several years, but I kind of doubt it …

Scouts know 1,000,000 things that saberdweebs don't, but saberdweebs have one big thing going for them: a sense of proportion.

Q: So where do you project Quiroz from here generally?

A: IMHO he has a future that is somewhat comparable to Adam Jones' … a good 30% chance of becoming an MLB impact starter, even a #5-6 hitter or something. …Or you could compare Quiroz to Rob Johnson, plus.

Quiroz needs a good season in AAA, maybe two — he needs AB's. He's been out of action.

A month of (predictably) good hitting in AAA and Quiroz is in the M's Top 10 prospects. For free.

Q: Where do you project Quiroz as a Mariner?

A: (Edit to add, Quiroz apparently can't be optioned to AAA and is here as the #2 catcher all year. Though he isn't ready, it's fair to assume that he will provide better production than would have Rene Rivera.)

Johjima and Clement aren't going to be displaced, and Rob Johnson is a real legit MLB starter prospect too. The M's are loaded at catcher.

But note carefully that the Mariners cleared a spot on the 40-man for Quiroz.

Right now Quiroz addresses the M's organizational philosophy of "depth to anticipate attrition" … Quiroz is here, philosophically, in case something happens to Johjima (failure or injury) and/or Clement (position switch or injury) or both.

Hopefully the M's can keep Quiroz on the 40-man, let him get AB's at Tacoma, let him re-establish his premium value … and then in 2007 when he is a quality young MLB catcher they can (a) use him as a super-backup or (b) include him in a blockbuster.

To the M's right now, Quiroz is a stock investment. He has a good year at AAA Tacoma, or a good year backing up with the M's, the M's have added an value commodity for nothing.

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Edit to add, but note the Roto-esque trade parlay mentioned by Bob Finnigan and comment #18.