http://minorleagueball.com/story/2006/2/26/12217/9396

 

  1. Jeff Clement, C, Grade A-
  2. Adam Jones, OF-SS, Grade B+
  3. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, B
  4. Clint Nageotte, RHP, C+
  5. Chris Snelling, OF, C+ (grade change from book)
  6. Matt Tuiasosopo, SS, C+
  7. Shin-Soo Choo, OF, C+
  8. Yorman Bazardo, RHP, C+
  9. Bobby Livingston, LHP, C+ (grade change from book)
  10. Wladimir Balentien, OF, C+
  11. Ryan Feierabend, LHP, C+
  12. Luis Valbuena, 2B, C+
  13. Michael Saunders, OF, C+
  14. Michael Wilson, OF, C+
  15. Sebastian Boucher, OF, C+
  16. Osvaldo Navarro, SS, C+
  17. Edgar Guaramato, RHP, C+
  18. Cesar Jimenez, LHP, C
  19. Anthony Vavaro, RHP, C
  20. Craig James, RHP, C

A few D-O-V readouts on the above grades … the 2nd of which will provide ya with an A-HA! experience (provided you aren't absolutely committed to defending national writers at any cost):

(1) I like John Sickels, both as an analyst and as a (literary) person.

(2) If you dug up this list from 1998 or 1993 or 1988 it would look exactly the same:  three Grade A-B's — and all the rest = Grade C's.  I'm sure that if you dug up the Sickels list from any year it would have about the same ratio of A's to B's to C's, if not actually more B's in some years that were genuinely weak.

(3) As Mariners fans know, comparing the above 20 players to the 1998 or 1993 Mariners systems is like comparing Jose Lopez to Willie Bloomquist.  For a long time the M's had a truly bare cupboard, but that's not the case now.

(4) In sum, the M's system is objectively much better than it used to be, but its individual players are getting the same grades … kind of like the Boeing manager allocating 3%, 2.5%, 1.5% raises each year.  Heh.

(5) Ergo, the impressions about the quality of the M's system overall drives the analysis of the individual players, not the other way around.

You know and I know that Matt Tuiasosopo and Clint Nageotte aren't Grade C prospects.  Just as a quick example, Nageotte is given a Grade C+ on the basis of …. still having control issues.

In fact, in the AFL he had a K ratio of 6:1 (IIRC) and walked only like 1.5 men per game.  Whatever you think of the AFL, the fact is that Nageotte *is* throwing strikes, and groundballs, and IS a different pitcher from the one people remember as being wild.

I don't know whether Sickels is aware that in 2004, Shin-Soo Choo had a higher FDT than Kotchman and McPherson — #1 in the Texas League in 2004 –, but I do know that if Choo were in a Braves or Yankee system, he'd be getting a lot more attention.

Presumably Jeff Clement's A- means that there were at most two Grade A's in last year's ammy draft?  :-)

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=== POSTBACCALAUREATE Dept. ===

To be fair also, a large number of young players in the M's system are excluded from the list:  at a glance, we note Lopez, Betancourt, Carvajal, Felix and Soriano (leaving Reed out).

For the intents and purposes of the Mariners' future plans, those players are about as much minor-leaguers as Clint Nageotte is.   ….Hey, apparently Lopez has not yet made it out of AAA.  :-)  You might as well call HIM a minor leaguer if he hasn't yet "earned" his way out of Tacoma.

So anyway, the point is that the above list will naturally look skimpy for the half-a-dozen blue-chippers who are in transition.

But it's still way undergraded.  Heh.

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=== SACRED COWS Dept. ===

Enjoy the national lists; we're not trying to bust anybody's chops — just offering an alternative viewpoint.  National writers offer their material for public consumption, and they are no more above debate than you or I are above debate.  Please don't get offended on national writers' behalfs, just because they receive intelligent back-and-forth, rather than fawning.

Similarly, anything published on D-O-V is fair game for agreement, disagreement, any time, any where.  Just be ready for the volley.  LOL.

Enjoy the national writers, but don't feel like you can't use your own good judgment.  You amigos are the experts on Mariners minor leaguers.

Now, if g-moneyball and JFro have a quick-scan Top 20, lemme know and we'll run it with gusto.  ;-)

Cheers,

Dr D