Bob Nightengale reports that the M’s-Red Sox talks still rotate around Jeremy Reed vs. Bronson Arroyo and Jon Lester.

Don’t blow it off as completely worthless: it indicates that Bavasi still reads Jeremy Reed’s trade value as in that range. And it probably indicates that somebody in one of the orgs threw Nightengale a bone as to what kind of talks are going on.

Q: Isn’t Bronson Arroyo a BABVA fave?

A: Arroyo is on my roto teams any time I can get him, and he will be again next year. I consider him one of the most underrated pitchers in the league.

There is probably no AL pitcher I know more about, other than Mariner pitchers. I follow Arroyo with great enthusiasm, including everything that Boston (and national) people write about him.

Q: Why do you say he’s underrated?

A: His whole career, he has pitched in (a) Uzbekistan or (b) Fenway Park.

The three years that Arroyo has played for Boston, his road ERA has been 3.48, his home ERA 4.91. Imagine if he were in a pitcher’s park, and his home ERA lower than his road 3.48.

Q: What kind of pitcher is he?

A: The low-BB, low-HR kind. Translated peripherals:

2003 — 1.8 BB, 0.0 HR (19 innings)
2004 - 2.0 BB, 0.7 HR
2005 - 2.2 BB, 0.9 HR
Career - 2.5 BB, 0.8 HR

If you’ve been tuned in before, you know that if an offense has to get three hits to score, you’re going to be able to keep it under control.

Q: Why did his K’s go through the floor in 2005?

A: Translated:

2002 - 6.8 (excellent)
2003 - 6.9
2004 - 6.7 …. (2.0 bb, 0.7 hr)
2005 - 4.5 (????)

Bronson Arroyo was actually one of the best starting pitchers in the league in 2004, as good as, say, Mark Buehrle or somebody.

In 2005 three things happened to him to cause the low strikeouts:

1) The league adjusted to his breaking stuff.
2) The league stacked lefties against him.
3) He didn’t have that good a year — he just never “got his groove” on.

Q: They stacked lefties?

A: Bronson Arroyo is an “extremely right-handed” pitcher, like Jeff Weaver, for example.

His big (and only) weakness is that he does not have a strikeout pitch against LH batters. Last year he fanned only 50 lefties in 469 AB’s. That’s hard to do, LOL. Lefties will put his curve and his slider in play.

In 2004, his big year, he faced an equal mix of LH and RH.

But in 2005, check it out: 470 lefties (830 OPS), 330 righties (650 OPS). Exactly as happened with Jeff Weaver (and many Cuban righties) after early promise and then a period of success, teams figured out that you could stack lefties on Arroyo.

In Fenway this was a catastrophe for Bronson. The park gives all righties a good boost, so Arroyo had it coming and going.

Q: The league adjusted to his breaking stuff?

A: Arroyo ate them up in 2004 by setting them up for a hook, and slider, that he can locate very well. He just abused them.

But in 2005, hitters sat back and waited for offspeed stuff. Arroyo didn’t adjust.

Q: The obvious question: why would he do any better in 2006?

A: Three things:

1) Bronson will adjust back. When you last saw him, he was in a “down cycle” of adjustment: hitters kept looking for his breaking stuff and he kept throwing it. They guessed right too many time.

2) Bronson still had a 3.48 ERA on the road. Put him in Safeco and you’re talking a 3+ ERA for sure. Maybe low threes. …give him a little success and he’ll get the groove back, also.

3) Arroyo’s TEAM could help him adjust some — by not just throwing him out there against every left-handed lineup that comes along. Schedule his rotation slot for a favorable team once in a while, man.

Q: How GOOD is he?

A: He’s a #2-3 starter on a contender.

Q: Could he really be the #3 on a team that made the playoffs?

A: Did you watch the 2005 playoffs? Bronson Arroyo in fact WAS the #2-3 starter for the Boston Red Sox during the 2005 season and postseason.

Arroyo still keeps a low HR rate (0.8, 0.9 translated) despite the low K’s and middling flyball ratio. He changes speeds and keeps batters from loading up.

You keep batters from walking, and you keep them in the park, and you keep them from loading up, you’re … well, you’re Jamie Moyer in his peak years.

Over Arroyo’s next several years in the AL, I expect him to run 5.0-6.0 strikeout rates, 2.0 bb rates, and fairly low HR rates. This will make him about, oh, the #20 starter in the league. At $2 to $4m in salary, I’d love to have him.

Q: Most-comparable pitcher?

A: Jeff Weaver. All the way down to both pitchers’ “extreme-righthandedness.” Check this out:

(Weaver: translated 5.5 k, 2.1 bb, 0.8 hr lifetime)
(Arroyo: 5.3 k, 2.5 bb, 0.8 hr life, but better recently)

Now, I’m not Jeff Weaver’s biggest fan, but would Dr. D take Jeff Weaver on a 2-year, $5m contract? Um, the answer is YES.

Neither man is a #1 starter, but either one is a #3 you could be proud of. Could the M’s use Weaver or Arroyo on this pitching staff? Chalk up another +30 runs, babe.

Q: So you’d deal Reed for Arroyo and Lester?

A: That’s roughly comparable to asking me if I’d trade Reed for a $2m Jeff Weaver and a Matt Cain.

I might trade him for either of them. For both?

I dunno what the M’s will do, but I know what I’m rooting for. You think we’ll get free CD’s on July 18?

Cheers,
Dr D