This was published in October of 2005.  Cliffs Notes:  Don't be afraid to bet on a HOF'er.  Thome coming into 2006 was analogous to Richie Sexson coming off his shoulder injury.  The fear of risk was disproportionate, and based on the (feeble) objection that Thome hadn't proven himself in the injury-riddled 2005 season.

Chicago traded Aaron Rowand — a player comparable in value to Randy Winn, or maybe not quite — for Thome and picked up half his salary.  Thome's OPS is 1200 as we speak.  He has 14 homers, would probably have 17 in Safeco, compared to the M's actual team total of -3. 

Lesson learned in Seattle?  None, of course. 

We did the right thing, taking the conservative path.  You can't get carried away.  You wind up with deadwood salary on your roster, you could easily wake up with a ballclub that is under .500. — Dr. D

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In the 2002 season, at the age of 31, Jim Thome hit .302 with 122 walks and 52 home runs.

The resulting line — .302/.445/.667 — was one of the best non-Bonds seasons since WWII. Imagine Edgar Martinez in his best year with 25 of his doubles turned into upper-deck shots? Thome was incredible. His VORP was a $4 taxi ride from +100 runs over a good replacement-level AAA first baseman.

Thome isn't that player any more; in fact, in 2005 he didn't really play at all, winged by an elbow injury. Now Thome is available, and reports out of Philadelphia say that the Phillies will pay $32m of his $48m, 3-year contract.

If you could have Jim Thome for $5m per season, should you take him?

Sure you should.

Jim Thome is HOF-bound and the last season he was healthy, he slugged .581 with an OPS of nearly a grand. His is similar to the situation that Richie Sexson was in last year: when last seen, he was great. But he hasn't been seen lately.

So what do you do?

You answer the question: how soon will the 35-year-old Thome get old?

CAT Scan: Comparable Players
This time 'round, we'll spare you the long string of alphanumerics and just use English. Players like Jim Thome have been excellent at the ages of 36 and 37.

D-O-V carefully scanned through 25 players who were just like Jim Thome, to see how they did at 35, 36, and 37.

Of those 25 players, the typical player — Mike Schmidt, Harmon Killebrew, Fred McGriff, Willie Stargell — the typical player was:

1) Great at 35
2) Great at 36
3) Good at 37
4) Not so good after that

About one-quarter of the Thome comps fell off badly at 35. But those players, Jose Canseco and Juan Gonzalez and Duke Snider and a few others, tended to be notorious for not taking care of their bodies.

We went into it open-minded, but it is clear that the HOF-caliber Thome comps who did poorly at and after 35, were the exceptions to the rule. The rule is that players of this caliber are excellent at 35 and 36.

Check the comp lists yourself: b-ref.com Thome age-35 comps and the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA card, if you subscribe. BP comps for Thome

EEG: PECOTA Projection
Don't take our word for it: PECOTA runs a 100-player list of comparables and calculates the results for you.

PECOTA, after 2004, projected Thome to do this:

Age 35 - .323 EqA
Age 36 - .327 EqA
Age 37 - .316 EqA
Age 38 - .302 EqA

All that really means is? That players similar to Thome tended to be very good at 35-37.

Which of course makes sense. Hitters of Thome's caliber, HOF hitters, can play baseball in their mid-30's.

Blood Pressure Cuff: K/BB trends
Go to ESPN.com and see if Thome is losing his ability to get around on a pitch: Strike zone data

In 2004, Thome's BB/K was 0.72, same as always. His BB/PA was .168, same as always.

His BB/K in 2005, his injury year? 0.76. His BB/PA? .186.

There are other numbers we look at, but hey. If Thome's bat had a pulse, it would be holding steady at 60 beats a minute. You're healthy as a horse, kid.

What these trends do — when compared against the comp lists — is they tend to tell you WHICH of the comps Thome matches up with. The K/BB trends suggest that Thome is more similar to Fred McGriff than he is to Duke Snider.

Country Doctor: Intuition
Dr. D's casual question on a guy like Thome is …. has the guy been more of an overachiever? Or has he been more of a super-talented type?

Obviously Jim Thome, who came up at 20 years of age as a SS/3B, who even then possessed a barrel chest and an explosive bat, is not a "slow white guy" overachiever who was physically challenged. Thome's reflexes were never borderline. He's one of the gifted ones.

Also, the most similar three hitters on Thome's list are McCovey, Reggie, and Pop Stargell.

Did they age well? All three hit well at 39-40 years of age.

Physician's Desk Reference: The SportSpot JAMA Paper
An outstanding little chart at SportSpot showed that eight comparables to Thome fell off quickly. What do we think of that data? SportSpot thread

It was an interesting study to be sure, but Dr. D does not recommend putting too much weight on it.

(1) Players like Jay Buhner and Greg Vaughn are not really comparable players to Jim Thome — not stylistically comparable, and not of his caliber. Using the criterion "two 40-HR seasons at 31-32-33" was fascinating, but it didn't really draw the most comparable players.

(2) Charting the players' success by total HR's was a bit misleading. Willie
Mays seems to do poorly in the study, but he posted a 160 OPS+ at the
age of 40! Harmon Killebrew was a terrific hitter at 35 (.386
OBP and 119 RBI in tough conditions) and 36, though the chart suggests he
couldn't hit any more.

Frank Howard, Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, could they hit at 35 and 36? Ya you betcha.

Sammy Sosa is the one scary comp out of the six HOF-level players, but Sammy
is under BALCO suspicion.

The study was very interesting, but it must defer to the PECOTA and b-ref.com comparables. And those comparables show a long series of excellent age 35-36-37 seasons for Thome's peers.

Malpractice Insurance Dept.
All bets are off if Thome is a BALCO case.

We would tend to doubt that, because Thome was as strong as an ox at 21 years of age, and a brilliant hitter very young. Jason Giambi was nowhere near as good, at 27, as Jim Thome was at 24.

On the other hand, it's easy to imagine the Phillies wanting to deal Thome because of fears about BALCO. It would be up to the M's to rule that out, and they would.

Dr.'s Prognosis Dept.
Thome will never have his 2002 season again. He will never challenge for the MVP again.

But he will probably hit .260/.390/.550 for the next two-to-four years, hit .260 with 100 walks and 35 home runs per season.

Compared to Griffey, at similar money, Thome is probably a better risk. He hits lefthanded. He draws the walks that the Mariners so badly need in front of Richie Sexson; Thome is an OBP-oriented hitter.

Granted, Thome is a DH-only, and the Mariners are scared of playing Raul Ibanez in left every day, because of his legs. THAT is the REAL reason that the Mariners would veer off of any deal for a 1B/DH like Thome.

But if the Mariners cannot land better, then at $5-6m per season, Jim Thome would be the LH cleanup hitter that the Mariners need. If he's clean, he's not much more of a risk than Richie Sexson was last year, and he'll be half the cost.

Cheers,
Dr D