It Could Be Worse. (SABR Matt)
I’ve just been through the looking glass, and my experience brightened my outlook on a gloomy 2008 season. The Ms are 18-32 and you have every right to be depressed and utterly frustrated with the Ms. But for those of you who might not be aware…it could be worse. Put down the pitchforks and beer cans for a minute and take a look at this roster.
Let’s compare using my Red Light/Green Light analysis (green if you can win your next pennant with him, black if it’s unclear and red if you cannot), shall we?
- C) Wil Nieves/Pau Lo Duca vs. Kenji Johijma/Jeff Clement
- 1B) Nick Johnson vs. Richie Sexson
- 2B) Felipe Lopez vs. Jose Lopez
- 3B) Ryan Zimmerman vs. Adrian Beltre
- SS) Cristian Guzman vs. Yuniesky Betancourt
- LF) Wily Mo Pena vs. Raul Ibanez
- CF) Lastings Milledge vs. Ichiro Suzuki
- RF) Austin Kearns vs. Wladimir Balentien
- BAT) Dmitri Young vs. Jose Vidro
- OF4) Elijah Dukes vs. Jeremy Reed
- UTL) Willie Harris vs. Willie Bloomquist
- IF) Ron Belliard vs. Miguel Cairo
The Nats’ big franchise player, Ryan Zimmerman, is at best an average-solid third baseman, both offensively and defensively. You can’t build a winner around him in the next few years while he’s in what’s left of his prime. Three of the Mariners’ biggest problems are going to be gone very soon. Jose Vidro, Richie Sexson and Miguel Cairo aren’t long for the club (no longer than the end of this season). And below them, the Mariners have organizational depth that solves each of those problems except possibly first base where there are decent free agent options available.
On the pitching side:
- SP1) Odalis Perez vs. Erik Bedard
- SP2) Tim Redding vs. Felix Hernandez
- SP3) John Lannon vs. Carlos Silva
- SP4) Shawn Hill vs. Jarrod Washburn
- SP5) Matt Chico vs. Miguel Batista
- CL) Jon Rauch vs. J.J. Putz
- SU1) Luis Ayala vs. Brandon Morrow
- SU2) Jesus Colome vs. Arthur Rhodes
- MR1) Joel Hanrahan vs. Sean Green
- MR2) Saul Rivera vs. Ryan Rowland-Smith
- MR3) Brian Sanches vs. Mark Lowe
- LR) Jay Bergmann vs. R.A. Dickey
The Washburn/Batista situation has been much discussed but how would you like your ace to be Odalis Perez? I mean seriously, guys, perspective helps. Besides which, unlike the Nats, whose minor league depth is spearheaded by Tyler Clippard, the Mariners have a lot of options for the rotation in the immediate near future including, but not limited to, R.A. Dickey, Ryan Feierabend, Ryan Rowland-Smith, and Brandon Morrow…and those are just the major-league ready options.
I felt bad for the Nats’ Assistant Director of Player Development, who gave a talk today on the Nationals’ farm system. He was a good, very bright, baseball man who was in the impossible position of trying to make his utterly lifeless franchise appear to have some hope. He listed about 20 different prospects and gave some background on each, but exactly ONE of them is what I would call a blue-chipper, and that was Justin Maxwell. The rest of the system was populated with guys they acquired from the sluff-off of other farm systems, and guys who would qualify as organizational fillers here in Seattle. When you follow baseball long enough, you learn to recognize the buzzwords of losers and I think this hour-long presentation set a world’s record for loser-phraseology per minute rate, through no fault of Mr. Scialabba.
I know there is frustration in Seattle; but let’s try to remember that it could be a LOT worse. If you want to be utterly hopeless for a day, try to be a Nationals fan.
You may now resume burning Bavasi in effigy.












May 25th, 2008 at 12:46 am Quote
I think you’re being overly optimistic on quite a few of those Mariners you have rated green. I don’t know enough about the Nats for the comparison, but you say green means “you can win your next pennant with him”. I interpret that to mean that the player would be a key part of a team, not easily replacable.
Jeff Clement is still an unknown. Some scouting reports of him from AAA assert that he kills AAA fastballs but doesn’t have the bat speed to get around on MLB caliber fastballs. If that’s the case, his value goes way down, particularly if his defense as a catcher isn’t any more than passable.
While Balentien has made huge strides as a hitter, he is still a work in progress and there is reason to wonder whether the holes in his swing will ever be fixed at a MLB level. Cutting down your strike out rate as he did in AA ball doesn’t necessarily translate to MLB.
Similar comments for Reed. Reed has had an extended look at MLB pitching and didn’t do much with it. This is not a small sample size issue. He’s 27, so if he were a key talent he should have been producing big time at the MLB level now. Reed has all of the look of a guy who isn’t much more than a fourth OF on a contending team. I can’t see giving him a green.
Mark Lowe is coming off a totally unique surgery, one that called into question whether he would ever pick up a baseball again, let alone be an MLB pitcher. He’s also not back to the pitcher he was before he went down, and given the nature of his surgery there’s ample reason to question whether he ever will be. Until he shows that he has totally recovered from what might have been a career ending surgery, it’s too early to put a green flag on him.
R.A. Dickey is useful in a pen, but is not a key component of a pennant team.
++++++
I’m not saying that none of those guys will prove to be “greens”. But I think it’s way optimistic too assume they area all “green”. By my count the current roster has 6 players who I would consider to be green, and since Beltre’s contract expires after 2009 I’m not sure he should also be included.
This team has work to do. There’s a reasonable but not outstanding core. And I don’t think there are nearly as many key pieces as your green flags would indicate.
May 25th, 2008 at 3:22 am Quote
I have Reed in Green because I have little doubt that he can be a solid fourth outfielder. I have STRONG doubts that he can be a solid starter.
Clement and Balentien are in green because, like it or not, they’re blue chip top notch prospects…the kinds of players you build a franchise around. And yes, I think they will help the Mariners win their next pennant…you will notice I also hav e Lastings Milledge in green despite weak numbers this season. Wlad is outhitting Milledge by quite a bit.
You don’t have to be “a key part of the team” to be the kind of player that pennant winners have. Green doesn’t mean future all-star, green means the role is filled with a player you want in that role. Notice, as well, that our best hitter, Raul Ibanez is not green because of his age (and Nick Johnson is not green because he is injury prone and likely not to be productive by the time the Nats are competitive in the most optimistic projections).
Beltre will be resigned…the Mariners like him WAY too much not to make him a very fair offer.
Mark Lowe is not back to the pitcher he was in 2006, but he’s certainly healthy and his stuff is certainly good. Which is about all you can ask for from your THIRD middle reliever.
May 25th, 2008 at 3:24 am Quote
BTW, R.A. Dickey is very much a key component on a pennant winner. Most good ballclubs will tell you, the key to the long term viability of the bullpen, beyond the lights out closer, is the rubber armed long reliever. It is very difficult to survive a 162 game schedule without that commodity. Dickey is a championship caliber long man and 6th starter.
May 25th, 2008 at 7:09 am Quote
So we’re supposed to take solace because we’re not as bad as the Nationals? And we have a $117 million payroll?
Boy, do I feel better!
May 25th, 2008 at 7:15 am Quote
No…you’re supposed to take solace because we’re a far better club than our 18-32 record and because all of our major problems are immediately or semi-immediately fixable.
Look at the red names on the Mariners’ side of the ledger. How, among those red names is going to hang around and cause problems beyond this season? Johjima and Betancourt. That’s IT. Maybe Washburn, but I doubt it with the SP depth we have.
I honestly believe that not only are we still in a good position to bounce right back to winning in 2009, but it’s a team worth rooting for even at this dark time when they’re not playing as a team. The Nationals aren’t worth even paying attention to…it’s a totally different thing.
May 25th, 2008 at 8:02 am Quote
Ahhhhh, but do you trust Bavasi, Armstrong and Lincoln to conduct this turnaround? You can read the management reaction to the current state of the team: the problem isn’t talent, it’s not enough character. Bavasi is going to trade some youth for crusty veteran grittiness.
May 25th, 2008 at 9:45 am Quote
What Mr. Bavasi was saying to Miss Shannon was essentially
“I really suck”. True. Some have been saying that for a long time now.
So now it is fair to ask the question “Why don’t you do something about it?” Resigning would work.
May 25th, 2008 at 11:55 am Quote
I doubt Beltre would be interested in coming back. I bet he goes back to LA. He would be an excellent trade piece at the deadline if the Mariners are out of it next year.
May 25th, 2008 at 11:55 am Quote
I guess I’m not sure how this lineup makes for a playoff-winning team any time in the near future:
* C) Aging Kenji Johijma/Jeff Clement (since at best Jeff will be splitting time with Kenji)
* 1B) OPEN
* 2B) Jose Lopez possibly, or OPEN
* 3B) Adrian Beltre
* SS) Yuniesky Betancourt possibly, or more likely OPEN
* LF) OPEN
* CF) Ichiro
* RF) Wladimir Balentien
* DH) OPEN
* OF4) Jeremy Reed/Michael Saunders
* UTL) Willie Bloomquist
* IF) OPEN
So of your red names, how do we replace them with more productive players?
There’s no 1B in the system right now. You could move Clement there to get him some playing time if we’re stuck with Joh, but Clement’s bat isn’t stellar at a 1B position, at least not for a couple of years at best.
There are two 2B potentially in the next couple of years, Triunfel (who makes Jose Lopez look like he’s got Big Mac type power) and Valbuena. Valbuena’s become interesting again with his much-improved BA and walk totals, and he has fairly average power for a MIF, but he’s not exactly a superstar in the making.
We have no replacement SS who’s any better than Betancourt and his empty average. I wish I knew what had happened to Balentien’s defense, because that’s also been lessened over the last couple of years - and you REALLY can’t have a no-power, no-walk SS with average D.
We have a couple of OF in the system of interest, mainly Saunders and Halman. Saunders plays CF, but could go to a corner OF position - he seems to have the power for it. Halman definitely does, but he also makes strike-out-prone Saunders look like the most patient batter in the world.
So we need to go outside the org for our 1B, SS and DH needs (unless we do some weird Clement/Other Bat combo at the position when he’s not catching) and we have a couple of 2B options if we need to ditch Lopez but nothing definite.
Based on our previous choices for the positions in the Bavasi era (Aurilia, Vidro, Sexson, Reese, Balentien who was a FA signing, etc) I don’t really see how our assessment of the FA market for these positions is likely to land us either the leaders or the power we need from some of those positions.
And then on the pitching side all we need to do is dump all our FA pitching acquisitions over the last 2 and a half years and replace them with real pitchers and we’ll be fine. *rolls eyes*
Except we obviously don’t know what real FA pitchers look like, so that could be a problem. We could convert some relievers to starters, but I’d have to see some evidence of that this year to believe it’ll happen. We still have Feier in the minors to give another shot to, but I still believe he’s a #5 not a #3. Our other minor-league arms are a few years away.
And if we don’t re-sign Bedard we’re gonna be in a world of hurt. The arms we traded for him (Tillman, Butler and Sherrill) are all doing rather well, which I expected and don’t have a problem with - as long as Bedard is on the team.
But with a Bedard signing and a potential Felix extension vital to the long term future of this club, and a new contract for Beltre needed after this year if we intend to keep him, having Sexson and Vidro money come off the books is pretty much a wash. Sexson’s money goes to Bedard, Vidro’s cash to Felix, and then we have Beltre to re-sign.
We’re not getting any more money for the roster. It’s gonna be static.
So who are we getting in the FA market? Even if we somehow pay for him, it’s a longshot to get Teixeira. Are we getting Nick Punto to play 2B? IIRC most of the SS options are just like Betancourt.
The most likely option IMO is to add Griffey to play CF, have Ichiro move back to RF, and put Wlad in LF, with Raul going to 1B.
That’ll bring the people to the ballpark to see Griffey play…but will it help us win?
I don’t see a lot that WILL help us win. Not that we can and will do. So I can’t feel good about your Red/Green list Matt, because all it illustrates is our futile failures in both the FA market and talent evaluation.
~G
May 25th, 2008 at 12:24 pm Quote
G…what happened to Chen?
BTW, why do you assume Betancourt is leaving any time soon? (You say Betancourt or more likely OPEN).
How do I replace the red guys with better players? I don’t do it internally. Fortunately, a lot of the red guys on the roster are costing us money right now and when they leave, they open up salary room to sign free agents. I make a HARD push for Mark Teixeira and assuming a I fail there, I go after Ryan Howard or Paul Konerko. For left field, I either keep Ibanez for one more year or I go after a free agent outfielder…preferably a glove-high player and at DH, you’ve got Clement.
We don’t have to spend any money at all on pitching so we can afford to get two high profile offensive free agents.
CF) Ichiro
LF) Free agent with speed and defense
1B) Big FA Power
3B) Beltre
DH) Clement
RF) Balentien
C) Johjima
2B) Lopez
SS) Betancourt
May 25th, 2008 at 12:46 pm Quote
Churchill over at PI, is adamant that Beltre is going back to LA when he’s done with his contract.. says he has no real interest in resigning in Seattle..
May 25th, 2008 at 12:55 pm Quote
Chen is Willie Bloomquist if Bloomie knew how to take a walk. He’s not a long-term viable solution at 2B IMO. Not enough power…and he’s atrocious right now to boot in a league he should at least be decent in at his age and experience.
And that’s what I meant about the leaving players not being enough. How much money do you expect us to have next year for a free agent addition or two?
Washburn and Batista both have 1.5 years left on their contracts.
Silva has a LOT more than that.
Sexson’s 15 mil comes off the books next year, but Bedard is only making 7 so if we want to extend him it’s likely to be at least another 5 mil to him next season and then he’ll be making a minimum of 15 per every year after that. He gets Sexson’s contract, so what’s available for a FA is more like 7 mil - what we were paying Bedard, not what we were paying Sexson.
And that’s assuming the Ms don’t shrink the payroll of the worst team in the AL.
Vidro’s 8 mil is similarly gone from the books, but we need to give it to Felix over the next couple of years. If he gets a Kazmir-like extension, that’s a wash too.
Joh got his extension already so we can’t clear that.
Betancourt’s coming up for renewal after 09, and he’ll cost more than his current contract dictates. Which may be one reason why he’s not back.
Beltre leaving after ‘09 could clear some cash, but we’d have to have a 3B waiting in the wings in order to use the money on a non-3B position. More likely we keep him for even more money for the ‘10-’14 seasons, unless he does go back to L.A. - and then we have to fill another corner power spot with somebody currently not in the system (because I don’t think Tui is anybody special).
There’s very little actual money clearing in ‘08 if we extend Bedard and Felix. Not enough for two premium FAs certainly, and maybe less if the Ms get money-conscious.
After ‘09 we get Wash and Batista off the books, and that’ll help. But the prospects for a quick turnaround using Teixeira are…slim. He went to college in Georgia, he played in Texas and now back in Georgia…I don’t see him leaving the South if he doesn’t have to.
Howard would require a mega-trade. Konerko could happen, since he’s having a bad year, but you’re paying a guy likely for his age-33 to 36 seasons as a RHB in our park.
*shrugs* I guess while I agree with your assessment of the roster for the most part, I don’t see the available pieces to make the Green parts of the lineup work.
~G
May 25th, 2008 at 12:56 pm Quote
Well then, I change my mind. It’s going to be a 6 year extension for Beltre!
May 25th, 2008 at 12:57 pm Quote
So, odds are about 90% for this happening?
May 25th, 2008 at 1:07 pm Quote
EA wrote:
So, odds are about 90% for this happening?
LOL probably.
We like aging white first basemen who were good at one time, but that we can hang on to for too long. Olerud, Sexy, and then Konerko would make a decent trifecta.
That’d set us up well to move Clement to 1B in his late 20s, have him have some successful seasons there and then fall off the table for us.
But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. We have plenty of mediocrity to experiment with before we get to that point.
See the 3 run lead JJ just gave up as like exhibit Z of the current season…
~G
May 25th, 2008 at 1:09 pm Quote
*sigh*
Washburn will be traded. I strongly believe that. There’s no way the Mariners tolerate him for another 1.5 years with their plans to make a starter out of Morrow on hold while he’s in the rotation. The Ms have increased payroll each of the last 11 years…why should we expect payroll not to increase again?
Even with Felix and Bedard needing more money, there will be money around to acquire a mid-price good-gloved outfielder and a slugging first baseman.
May 25th, 2008 at 1:24 pm Quote
Possibly because nobody’s gonna come out and watch a team with 40 wins in August? At least not without some incentive, like “come watch Junior’s return to the team!” or “come watch us randomly shoot one of our below-mendoza-line hitters on the outfield grass before the ballgame!”
The Ms could still get hot. Felix and Bedard are still good starters, and even atrocious hitters get into hot streaks.
But losses like today (and indeed, this whole road trip of being swept by below-.500 teams) just make it more likely that the citizens of Seattle find something better to do with their time than come to Safeco, which can affect payroll decisions by a profit-oriented FO.
And I’m more of the opinion that Wash may be DFAed next year than that he’ll be traded this year. Batista could be moved to the pen to allow Morrow to start - that’s more likely IMO.
If the Ms even intend to start Morrow. They’ve been drooling over his potential as a closer, and with Putz’s struggles I think Morrow is an arm’s length from being the closer for a decent chunk of time while Putz goes on the DL with a phantom or “recurring” injury and can get himself 100% healthy.
~G
May 25th, 2008 at 1:42 pm Quote
I don’t buy the whole Morrow as closer thing yet. I see the potential for that…but all the talk this spring was about Morrow being the next big thing in the rotation. The Ms refused to part wiht him in the Bedard deal…they obviously thought more of him than they did of Sherrill.
May 25th, 2008 at 2:36 pm Quote
Uhh…I thought that Betancourt was under contract through 2011, with an option for 2012?
(At least that’s according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts)
Anyway, first time poster here. It’s amazing…or weird, how quickly the 2008 M’s have come to resemble the 2003-2004 M’s, when the rebuilding first started as Pat Gillick left and Bill Bavasi entered as GM.
So, basically, this team has learned nothing over this ~5 year period, and we’re back to a veteran-laden team with unmovable contracts and the possibility of multiple upcoming DFA’s. Nice.
May 25th, 2008 at 3:41 pm Quote
Whenever I am feeling blue about the stupid contracts for Silva, Wash, and Batista, I just think about how Giants fans must feel about Zito and how close we came to being under that contract. Sorry, Fett.
Honest question:
Would you rather have the Mariner’s bad SP contracts (Silva 3+, Wash 1+, Bautista 1+) or the Giant’s Zito contract (5+)?
Another honest question:
Would you rather have Cain/Lincecum or Felix/Bedard?
May 25th, 2008 at 4:19 pm Quote
You’re probably right about Betancourt - I just remember his 4 year original deal, but we like to extend guys early when they haven’t proven themselves to be anything special. I think I remember us giving him an extension. We’ll see if that means he sticks around or not.
Good point. Let’s run the tape much the same way Matt did in his rundown of M’s vs. Nats:
Pos Player Name
C Dan Wilson 0.615 OPS vs Johjima: 0.559 OPS winner: Wilson
1B John Olerud 0.714 OPS vs. Sexson: 0.691 OPS winner: EVEN
2B Bret Boone 0.740 OPS vs. Lopez: 0.710 OPS winner: Boone
3B Scott Spiezio 0.634 OPS vs. Beltre: 0.791 OPS winner: Beltre
SS Rich Aurilia 0.641 OPS vs. Betancourt: 0.685 OPS winner: Betancourt
OF Ichiro Suzuki 0.869 OPS vs. Ichiro: 0.739 OPS winner: Ichiro ‘04
OF Randy Winn 0.773 OPS vs. Balentien: 0.701 OPS winner: Winn
OF Raul Ibanez 0.825 OPS vs. Raul: 0.795 OPS winner: Ibanez ‘04
DH Edgar Martinez 0.727 OPS vs. Vidro: 0.646 OPS winner: Edgar
Can someone please explain to me how, 4 years into our rebuild, we had better offensive talent assembled on the team that led us to the rebuild in the first place?
~G
May 25th, 2008 at 4:59 pm Quote
Ouch, that’s depressing.
May 25th, 2008 at 5:55 pm Quote
G Money wrote:
Wow. Just wow.
As far as looking to free agency to solve the M’s problems - the M’s are probably in a worse position than they were in 2004. Then, the M’s had to overpay for Beltre and take a risk on Sexson but at least players on the market back then had some recent memory of Seattle greatness. The M’s are going to have to over pay and/or take a risk on a player if they want FA players in 2009. I mean really, if the Braves, Yankees and Mariners are all bidding for your services how much more $$$ are you going to want from Seattle in order to come here and play 1B for the next six or seven years? And like G says, expecting the payroll to expand may not be a valid assumption.
A bat like Thome fits the mold of guys the M’s like to bring in. White, quiet and unassuming, used to be good, fits one of their pre-cast paradigms (left-hand sock), can’t play a lick of defense. I’ll bet we are looking at something like a Thome/Podsednik off season “spending spree”, with an Ibanez extension thrown in for good measure.
May 25th, 2008 at 6:00 pm Quote
That’s not even remotely fair G.
No one in their right mind projects this 2008 team to finish as bad as they’ve started offensively. You can expect with 100% certainty that Johjima will outhit Wilson, that the team will have higher DH production than Edgar produced, etc. Oh BTW, which is the Olerud over Sexson edge a push but the Boone over Lopez edge is Edge Boone…it looks almost exactly the same.
May 25th, 2008 at 7:38 pm Quote
If you’d like to “push” Boone and Lopez, I’m okay with that. I was putting anything over .025 as an advantage.
And why wouldn’t we expect them to finish the season in the same vein they started it in? Nobody in their right mind expected Olerud, Boone and Gar to crash and burn, and Spaz and Aurilia to flame out either. But they did.
That team had a terrible year from Moyer but a great half-season from both The Chief and Bobby Mads that tried to offset the trash of Franklin, Pineiro and Meche. It had Eddie Guardado and a buncha “scrubs” (one of whom would later turn into JJ Putz, bad mama jamma) in the pen.
That doesn’t look at ALL like this team to you?
Why would I 100% expect that Joh would outhit Wilson? Yes, Joh had seasons of 101 and 103 OPS the last two years, but Danny had 90 and 94 before he crashed down to 64 his last two seasons in the league.
Catchers go fast when they go. I DO expect Kenji to get better, but I wouldn’t call it a guarantee that he soars past Wilson. The couple of batters who are hitting right now aren’t a guarantee to keep their numbers UP either. And it hurts me to say that Johjima has had a worse first couple of months than Aurilia, and we cut Aurilia loose but signed Johjima to a 3 year extension. At least Aurilia wasn’t still hurting us in 2007.
We complained bitterly in ‘04 that the Ms had black holes in the lineup and nobody who could mash to compensate. Well, same problem in ‘08.
And to get a sample that better matches up with the current season, let’s break the season into halves:
Pre-All-Star break the 2004 Ms had this line (unless I can’t read):
.256/.324/.380/.704, 86 OPS+
2008 Ms currently (or close to currently, it may be even worse now):
.250/.309/.380/.689, 87 OPS+
Wow, are those numbers similar.
Incidentally, the 2004 Ms had this AFTER the All-Star Break:
.285/.339/.415/.754, 98 OPS+
The OPS+ by month goes:
Month 2004 2008
Apr 84 95
May 89 77
Jun 85
Jul 98
Aug 100
Sep 90
The ‘08 Ms had BETTER improve, as you suggest (and I think) they will Matt - they’ll have to just to keep up with the pace of the pitiful ‘04 Ms.
But I don’t expect Sexson to improve - he has Cirillo-face when he comes to the plate now.
I don’t expect Betancourt or Lopez to improve much from where they are. Some potentially, but not much IMO.
I don’t expect Raul to hit .900 in the 2nd half (though he did last year…).
I don’t expect a ton of improvement from Vidro, and it doesn’t look to me like Clement likes playing at the pro level as a DH yet, so even once he comes back how much better would you expect him to be as a rookie? He might be in a push with Edgar, but that’s as much as I can reasonably expect by the end of the year. Hopefully he surprises me.
Ichiro will get better - he always does.
But where else is this theoretical jump over the ‘04 team coming from? *shrugs* I expect the Ms to close the last months as a 100ish OPS offensive team - which is how the ‘04 team finished it.
What do you expect?
~G
May 25th, 2008 at 8:41 pm Quote
Addendum:
The follow-up to the dismal 2004 team was the addition of two $12 mil+/yr hitters to try to regain that pop. We promoted Lopez in ‘04, and then again in ‘05, without much success. Betancourt played, Reed played, and none of the kids had an impact. Sele, our FA pitching addition was an abomination.
That’s the nightmare scenario for us next year too. Hopefully our kids Balentien, Clement and Morrow all become stars, but if they flatline over the next 18 months we’re gonna be in deep trouble no matter what we might do with trades and FA signings.
And regardless of what the kids do, the Ms are still looking for immediate help with 2 power bats (just like ‘05), some better starting pitching 1-5 even from the TOR guys (just like ‘05) and more pen stability (also like ‘05).
And if in 4-5 years you still have the same problems and the same record you started with, it really probably should not be called re-building, since there’s the same frame you started with and no finished product.
~G
May 25th, 2008 at 9:38 pm Quote
Come on G…you’re really content in your belief that Johjima is going to get outhit by the aging Dan Wilson? REALLY?? Not only did Johjima start out a far better hitter, but he’s also way younger than Wilson was when he cratered for good. And he has better component skills…WAY better K/BB, better LD%, better XBH rate better EVERYTHING than Danny ever had.
Um…we’re looking for better starting pitching from the TOR guys? Not unless you take Bedard and Felix’ current ERAs seriously, which I do NOT. Whatever. Go on thinking as negatively as you can possibly muster. I prefer not to get so frustrated by current events that I lose my sense of perspective. Yes…this team is performing horribly at the moment, but to compare our current situation to the situation we had in 2004 is just ridiculous. That team had no young prospects ready to step into roles when the veterans died. That team had no depth in the low minors.
Having said all of that…I do understand the general point being made that this team is once again too ossified with bad veteran contracts…I’m not blind to the fact the front office has gone too far once again toward veterans and left itself in the position of having to reconstruct chunks of the roster to improve. I think, however, that we’re in a far better position to do that given the youth we have now that we did not have in 2004.
May 25th, 2008 at 9:41 pm Quote
Where does the jump from ‘04 come from? The PITCHING.
That team’s problem wasn’t so much the offense…that team had a HORRIBLE bullpen, a HORRIBLE rotation and HORRIBLE defense at all of the skill positions. The Mariners aren’t anywhere near as bad off on the pitching side unless you’re so bothered by the recent cold streak by the rotation that you don’t recognize the top of the rotation for what it is.
May 25th, 2008 at 10:58 pm Quote
I’m not angry about this Matt, relax.
That’s a lot of points, so I’ll try to reply in some coherent fashion.
Dan Wilson cratered at 34. Joh’s 32. That’s not “a lot younger.” Not for a catcher. Still, I expect Joh to recover some definitely. The question is “how much?” I’m thinking it won’t be to his standard 100 OPS+, but that’s just me. And he’ll be ours through all the years Wilson was dying an excruciating death on the field.
We’re looking for better pitching from everyone. Not replacement pitchers for them, but better pitching performances. I love Bedard more than most, but he can’t be caving in during games we need. I love Felix, but we need him to also be better.
We need to re-sign Bedard. If that doesn’t happen then we’re just as bad off as we were in ‘05, when Felix was up the first time. We have aging BOR guys making lots of money, young pitchers in the pen with little experience, a closer who was great and is getting shaky, and a TOR pitcher who hasn’t yet reached the point of dominance every 5th day. We need Bedard in order to keep making strides in the right direction.
But if Bedard won’t re-sign with us before the trade deadline next year then we have to trade him.
And that gives us Felix/Silva/Wash or Dickey/Batista/Morrow or Feier in the rotation in all probability for the rest of ‘09, and then God knows what. It’s possible that we change that around a bit (DFA or trade Wash, move Batista to the pen, etc) but the majority bet says we know who 85% of the staff is gonna be next year. They’re already either on the team or in the minors.
Bavasi likes to build pens with minor league arms held together with a couple of vets, and rotations of “dependable” FA signings.
So we have horrible defense, a totally unreliable bullpen with some decent arms that aren’t exactly lights out, and a rotation that currently has two #1s that are not pitching like Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling and a #3-5 bunch of contact pitchers that are getting slammed around the ballpark on a semi-regular basis.
Once again, other than having Bedard/Felix at the top so the potential for some starting dominance down the road is greater, it doesn’t seem a lot different - and the two months the Ms have had pitching are worse than the two months that started the ‘04 season. Maybe we can pass that off on injuries a little, as Bedard getting nicked up and Putz imploding his ribcage have definitely hurt us, but our season is shaping up like that season, and we have the holes we had that season…unless we re-sign Bedard. Then we’re one hole better.
Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling performances from Bedard and Felix could pull this team around, and with a few mods it’s theoretically possible they could make a run like the D-Backs did on the strength of their aces, sure.
It might even happen.
But if it doesn’t happen, and Felix keeps having “bad luck” and Bedard has problems with his catcher and injuries, it’s gonna be not just a long year this year, but also next year.
Because Plan B might as well be Plan 9 From Outer Space for all the care and attention the Ms are likely to put into it.
And I guess the fact that Plan A seems to be, “players make more plays, hitters hit better, our TOR both pitch like Cy Young contenders, our defense magically fixes itself, our kids all work out and our bullpen solidifies into something that can hold a lead” doesn’t comfort me much.
~G
May 25th, 2008 at 11:08 pm Quote
Well, it won’t let me repost something that’s not showing up as it’s a “duplicate post.” so hopefully it magically appears later or something.
~G
May 26th, 2008 at 12:06 am Quote
You were in approval mode for some reason with that post. I cleared it.
May 26th, 2008 at 5:21 pm Quote
Just got a long article halfway done and WordPress ate THAT. :- )
Be with you guys shortly, FWIW. Rock on…
May 26th, 2008 at 6:01 pm Quote
Doc…WordPress keeps timing out on me when I take time to write an article…I’ll click publish and it will immediately jump to a screen that gives a database error. I only have like 15-20 minutes tops to complete the article before it times out and won’t do it. Which means I end up writing in Word and just copying it in.
May 26th, 2008 at 7:24 pm Quote
Regarding the original topic, I’m less interested in seeing how the M’s stack up against the dregs of the league and more interested in how they stack up against the class of the league. A side by side analysis of the 40 man rosters for Boston and Seattle is far more illuminating. And ugly for a Mariners fan.
May 26th, 2008 at 7:25 pm Quote
It’s doing that on posts too, Matt. If I post fast it just gives me the stupid common blacklist error, but if I take too long (bout that same 15-20 mins) then it gives me a timeout and reset, and I have to backup and actually reload the page before I can paste my post in and have it accept it.
Just FYI. Thanks for finding the other one.
~G
May 26th, 2008 at 8:24 pm Quote
yeah G…there must be something going on with the server’s settings…if you stay on one page for more than 15 minutes, it locks you out of the DB…if you post twice in a minute or whatever it calls you a spammer.
May 26th, 2008 at 8:40 pm Quote
Did all read Mr. Armstrong’s comments? Basically, Mr. Bavasi is not in danger of losing his job because things are not his fault. Bavasi saying the same things about Mac. Surely, Mr. Lincoln is not to blame.
A disaster without a cause. Only in Seattle. Accountability does not exist.
May 26th, 2008 at 9:37 pm Quote
Let’s be honest though…do you really expect anyone in Seattle’s front office to “be accountable”…these are their careers on the line…you’d be a fool to step up and say “wow…I suck at my job and the team is terrible because of it.”
It’s hardly unique in baseball to see a team with high expectations have a horrible year and have everyone in the front office proclaim that the problem was out of their control.
May 26th, 2008 at 10:12 pm Quote
Yeah, the whole front office is in CYA mode. Which I guess is at least something different for a change. Usually they tell us all is proceeding normally and there’s nothing to see here.
The dynamic on the team is sort of scary right now though. The MOTO hitters can’t do jack, the roleplayers can’t play roles, the starters either can’t put 5 innings together or are so afraid of handing it over to the pen that they want to go all 9, the bullpen is treating the call to the pen like a death sentence by firing squad…
I’d feel really bad for all of them if I wasn’t so hacked off at em. June can’t get here quick enough.
~G
May 26th, 2008 at 10:33 pm Quote
indeed G.
Rule of thumb though.
You’re never as bad as you look in a long losing streak.
They certainly aren’t contenders, but I don’t think the team is hosed for several years at this point…not yet anyway. They will be hosed if their reaction to this is go get MORE veterans with grit. That’s not what is needed right now.
May 26th, 2008 at 11:01 pm Quote
SABRMatt wrote:
Totally agreed. They’re not THIS bad over the course of a season.
But losing streaks do illuminate your flaws. As we found out last year you don’t learn anything from winning. Losing lets you know what needs correcting.
Hopefully the Ms are taking the right kind of notes from this disaster of a month. “It’s all the players’ fault, we should be awesome” can be spouted in news conferences but it better not be on that notepad.
~G
May 26th, 2008 at 11:06 pm Quote
we SHOULD be pretty good IMHO. The pitching staff would have been 110 ERA+ or better if not for Putz deciding to get a career altering rib-cage injury and thus screwing up the rest of the bullpen…and thus causing McLaren to overwork Bedard and Hernandez (and to a lesser extent Washburn and Silva). Not saying Wash and Silva are that great…but they’re better than they’ve looked this month.
Also not saying there aren’t problems that need fixing…(half the line-up for example)…just saying even a pessimist would look at this club before the season and say the pitching staff was good enough to carry us to 85-88 wins. Not 55-58 wins…LOL
But yeah…the main thing they need to learn from this is the one thing Sandy got ticked off about…age management. This is twice now that they’ve let the rotation and the middle of the line-up get old enough that players on the team cratered and screwed up a season.
May 27th, 2008 at 4:54 am Quote
Over at MC, I posted a lengthy rant about Mac. I’m actually a bit surprised that the focus of ire has been more squarely placed on Bavasi than Mac, in all honesty. But, since no one has bothered to respond over there, I thought I’d throw in a link here to troll for comments.
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=714&st=20&start=20
The summary is simple. The “over .500″ portion of the Ms 2007 season was accomplished almost totally BEFORE Mac took over. This year, 2/3 of the team is performing UNDER even the most conservative expectations. It ain’t about on-field decision making. It’s about the ability to get a club to relax that is pressing. The TALENT on the club is far better than what has been displayed. And Mac is getting less and less out of it.
May 27th, 2008 at 8:52 am Quote
yeah…McLaren definitely has completely failed as manager this year to motivate the troops. I don’t know why that is, however.