Washburn now emboldened to trash his teammate worse than ever before.
You know where I stand on this kind of teammate. If you have a problem with a brother, keep it in the clubhouse. Like Erik Bedard, apparently, has done…
.
=== Truth vs Ego Defense, Dept. ===
That said, we have remarked before that scientists — and truth-seekers — turn the investigative process upside down.
The human temptation is to take a position, and then go out and look for everything that justifies said position. The scientist is conditioned to a different approach: he takes a position and then he goes out and looks for something that proves his position wrong. This approach is consolidated with a simple question: "If You Were Wrong, How Would You Know?"
Q1. If you were wrong about George W. Bush's intentions in Iraq, how would you know?
Q2. If you were wrong about whether the earth was warming (or not) due to American whites' consumption, how would you know?
Q3. If you were wrong about whether Adam Jones was (or wasn't) a better hitting prospect than Wlad Balentien, how would you know?
Q4. If you were wrong about whether Brandon Morrow is (or isn't) doomed as an MLB starting pitcher, due to missing the minor leagues, how would you know?
Q5. If bloodletting 2 pints isn't the right way to treat a bad cold, how would you know?
Not many barbers cared about that self-examination. Are we better? :- ) How many Americans (from either side of the political spectrum) are interested in the answer to Q#1? About as many as there were barbers interested in testing their bloodletting theories.
. …………………..
It has been proven that Americans would rather a President not admit a mistake — even if they believe he is wrong. If a Ronald Reagan denies Iran-Contra, his poll numbers are fine. The day he admits it, his poll numbers go down — even among those who believed he was involved.
Most Americans dislike hearing a public figure correct himself. That's okay. Since when do I care what people like? :- )
.
=== Now THAT'S a Control, Dept. ===
This winter, we cheerfully offered our answer to this question on Kenji Johjima's pitch calls. I mean, despite Dr. D's hypothesis that M's pitchers are just making excuses … it's possible that there is a real problem with Johjima's pitch-call game, right?
And as Dr. Naka once suggested, perhaps there is a very important disconnect between Johjima-san and his fielders?
You can always be wrong, no matter how natural and simple and inexorable your view of the world seems.
…………….
OK, great. The data I said I'd like to see is this: bring in a real quality MLB starter, one who doesn't have the baggage of Seattle loserism to make excuses about. If Erik Bedard can't, or won't, throw effectively to Kenji Johjima, then THAT would be a solid indication that Johjima is the real problem.
Erik Bedard's choice of Jamie Burke is a landmark data-return here. It's (barely) possible that Burke-Bedard is a coincidence, but if it's not? Now, Erik Bedard's opinion, I take seriously.
Bedard isn't insisting on (?) Burke because he wants to blame his last two years on Johjima.
.
=== Hang Tough … Help Is On The Way Dept. ===
There's wiggle room here, of course. You can think of six rationalizations for Bedard's choice just like I can. That's if you're in the mode of, "If you were wrong, how would you suppress the contrary data?"
……………..
So, great. New data. Here came Erik Bedard — and, apparently, he believes Johjima's defensive game is unacceptable. Erik Bedard knows a bit more than I do on the subject.
From today forward, my default premise is that there ARE serious problems with Johjima's work — problems that go beyond the MLB'ers preference for fastballs. (And Erik Bedard, in 2007, threw a higher % of sliders than any other SP in the American League.)
Perhaps tomorrow we'll get even more new data: Maybe Erik Bedard loves Kenji Johjima and the Burke starts are just a coincidence. Fine, we re-revise the hypothesis yet again. But that doesn't change where the data sits as of right this second.
.
=== Caveats Dept. ===
None of which excuse Jarrod Washburn's throwing Johjima under the bus (D-O-V's original phrase on this subject) to distract the viewing audience away from his own pitching.
That is precisely where it's so easy for a real scientist to go wrong: there is such a good and natural (and wrong) explanation that sits nicely over the truth.
Right before Copernicus (1500 AD), astronomers believed that the Earth was at the center of the solar system, orbited by Mercury, Venus, then the Sun, then Mars, Jupiter, etc. It explained so many things they were seeing.
One fatal problem … they needed to swap out the Sun's and Earth's positions :- ) but… the model was so simple, so natural, and explained so much…
…………………
IFF the truth is that Johjima is the problem — here was a super-plausible, pre-Copernican hypothesis that was seducing the honest investigator. Jarrod Washburn actually is a guy who pitches poorly and then blames others, and several M's pitchers actually were losers who were the type of guys to shift blame.
That's the kind of situation that can fool an honest investigator. :- ) At least I'd like to think so.
…………………
Here's a piece of data for you:
Jarrod Washburn's tOPS+ allowed by catcher in 2007:
80 - Burke & Washburn (11 games)
109 - Johjima & Washburn (22 games)
Here's another:
Mariner pitchers' OPS allowed by catcher in 2008:
790 - Johjima (275/358/432)
699 - Burke (262/319/380)
712 - Clement
What was it last year, 2007?
801 - Johjima
704 - Burke
What was it in 2006?
788 - Johjima
681 - Rivera
………………..
Another caveat: perhaps the root cause here isn't really anything that Johjima is doing wrong? I mean, suppose the problem is that Johjima is used to precise (84 mph) pitch location, and that he's expecting MLB pitchers to be able to do things that NPB pitchers can't — and it's costing them.
That's fine. In fact, I think something like that IS what's going on.
Nobody admires Johjima more than me, both professionally and personally. I don't think Kenji is dumb; I think the opposite. This is probably just some sort of disconnect that's nobody's fault, especially. Johjima could go back to NPB and excel as a defensive catcher, I'm sure.
IMHO, this article still stands in its basic premise — that Washburn is sitting back and expecting Johjima to adapt to him, when the goal should be improved communication however it is accomplished.
………………….
But that doesn't matter. The reality is that Johjima + MLB Pitchers = +100 OPS points.
This isn't about blame. It's about reality. It's not about pointing fingers. It's about breaking losing streaks.
.
=== Does Defense Matter?, Dept. ===
Well, of course, fellow blog-amigos. Everybody cares about the difference between being #2 in the majors vs #29 in the majors. That's not what we were arguing about. We were arguing about the defense at one or two (bat-first) positions.
………………..
Birdwalk aside, and back on point: Burke's BABIP allowed is a good 25-40 points (!!) lower than Johjima's, both for 2008 and 2007.
2007:
.328 - BABIP with Johjima catching
.287 - BABIP with Burke catching
2008:
.316 - BABIP, Johjima catching
.293 - BABIP, Burke
2006:
.303 - BABIP, Johjima
.281 - Rivera
That's the difference between a terrific defense, and a catastrophic defense.
And at this point, John McLaren has to sit down, cry into his coffee for an hour, and then face the reality that Kenji Johjima is the most likely root cause of the poor defense.
Rene Rivera is not a particularly accomplished ML catcher. Johjima is 100 OPS points less effective than him.
………………..
It's possible that Kenji Johjima is not the root cause here. But even if that is the case, you have no right to presume otherwise. The data is just too compelling.
………………..
Okay, you blew it (or, more accurately, the Boss blew it). You signed Kenji Johjima to an extension, and the next week, you realized that (on average) he is adding 100 OPS points to each of 11 different pitchers. That is tens of millions' of dollars' worth of performance you are leaking per season.
………………..
The 1975 Cincinnati Reds jelled, turned a lousy start into a 41-10 hot streak, when they made a position switch. Pete Rose went from LF to 3B, and they put George Foster in the lineup.
The 2008 M's need to install Jeff Clement and Jamie Burke as the defensive catchers. That's probably all they need to do, to bring their DER way up, their ERA's way down, and turn the season around.
Cheers,
Dr D
May 13th, 2008 at 2:37 pm Quote
“The 2008 M’s need to install Jeff Clement and Jamie Burke as the defensive catchers. That’s probably all they need to do, to bring their DER way up, their ERA’s way down, and turn the season around.”
but will they do it Doc?
Bavasi needs to see this article, heh
May 13th, 2008 at 2:44 pm Quote
He will .. which then poses a problem.
………………….
What happens when you go to Yamauchi-san, and tell him, our analysts have found the following data? And with respect, sir, even though it is not necessarily Johjima-san’s fault, we have a root cause of quality defect here that we must remedy.
Yamauchi-san is not stupid. He has not said that Japanese players may not be traded whatever the circumstances. He has said, “On Japanese players, you come to me first.”
So you go to Yamauchi. In all likelihood he then approves a well-thought-out solution. Maybe you can trade Johjima-san. Maybe you can buy out his new contract for a Sasaki-type return to NPB.
………………..
Supposing the Mariners were way ahead of us on all this — that their analysts knew all this, and that Yamauchi-san directed them to use Johjima, though he costs each pitcher 100 OPS points?
THAT, my friend, is the point at which you say, “I cannot work under these conditions.”
…………………
If and when McLaren and Bavasi are AWARE that Johjima (or the general circumstances) are costing them 100 OPS points (!!) on defense — and they accept the loss for political reasons — THAT is when they prove themselves unfit to hold their positions.
I’m sure that will not be the case.
May 13th, 2008 at 2:46 pm Quote
.
Credit where credit’s due… last year, Dr. Naka pointed out the DER difference with Johjima.
As I recall, he suggested better communication between Johjima-san and the fielders.
………………
Credit for being the first to sense the issue, though IMHO a much more radical step is going to be needed…
May 13th, 2008 at 2:51 pm Quote
.
And BTW, I also owe an engraved apology to those who foresaw very serious problems with Johjima’s translation to MLB.
I assumed that they were just being tradition-bound. But now it looks more likely that they were just getting there ahead of me, so to speak. Very likely they were seeing things I just wasn’t.
…………………
Again, none of this necessarily diminishes Johjima’s career. He has been one of Japan’s best catchers, and on the surface of it (road OPS+, CS+, etc) he is a fine MLB catcher.
But perhaps the stylistic differences NPB-MLB do not survive the transplant into the catcher-pitcher nerve center of run prevention.
May 13th, 2008 at 3:11 pm Quote
Now will you apologize for essentially calling Jarrod Washburn a racist pig, Doc? I think Washburn has an intuitive understanding somewhere deep down that Johjima is screwing up his career.
Yes, it’s bad to voice that to the public, but it’s not because he’s Japanese…it’s because his style doesn’t work in the big leagues. Johjima is the problem here…not Washburn.
May 13th, 2008 at 3:18 pm Quote
As stated above, some things in the “Accountability” article change, and some don’t, with the insight (?) that Johjima isn’t meshing with American pitchers.
I think that it’s possible for both things to be true, for (say) Bob Feller to be a racist pig who expects Josh Gibson to adapt to him, and for Josh Gibson to also have a real problem with his defensive game.
Other pitchers have done what Bedard, Batista, Putz, etc have done — work at the problem and keep the problems in the clubhouse. What Washburn has done is reprehensible. I don’t think Washburn is ANY less inflexible or arrogant now that it turns out that his racism has some basis, in this case (not w/r/t Johjima’s skin color, but w/r/t the Mariners’ pitch sequences).
……………..
And, again, nobody ever suggested that Washburn doesn’t like people with different skin tones. It’s a question of rejecting another culture, another way of doing things, out of hand. I think that charge sticks.
………………
But, yes, the discussion needs a re-visit after it is established that Washburn’s prejudices turned out to have some level of rational basis.
Again, none of which is to say that Johjima-san is inferior on an objective level. Maybe he is and maybe he isn’t.
Agreed, Matt, a re-visit is justified in view of the new light bulbs (if that is what they are).
Good stuff,
J
May 13th, 2008 at 3:26 pm Quote
I think Washburn rejected Johjima’s culture because for two months in 2006, he BADLY struggled trying to get it through Johjima’s head that his sequences weren’t working with the Mariners’ infielders and his record suffered. He was new to the team and he wanted to make a good impression and Johjima was RUINING it.
And Washburn isn’t the only stubborn one. Johjima is being just as big-headed…refusing to call a more American set of pitch sequences because he thinks the Japanese way is the only way. When he gets into yelling matches with Washburn, he doesn’t change his style the next time around…
You can BET that Washburn wouldn’t still be upset with Johjima if the guy would adapt to serve his pitchers. And you can bet that if Johjima weren’t stubborn, his DER would improve.
May 13th, 2008 at 4:00 pm Quote
Um, sort of off-topic but does anyone think global warming is a racial problem? Probably better served to leave race out of it.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:23 pm Quote
Thats what I said months ago.
On the other side pitchers FIP is better for Johjima. So Johjima calls a good game but is not in sync wit ite infielders.
I think the the cause is the lack of concentration especially of Lopez.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:42 pm Quote
And as acknowledged twice, above, once in the article and again in comment #3.
………………
Here in the 2nd inning Wedneday, the Rangers with 3 hits, none of them smoked… 1) a 6-hop ground ball 2 yards to Lopez’ right, 2) a soft line drive off Ibanez’ glove, and 3) a 4-hop ground ball 1 yard to Beltre’s left and 2 yards to Betancourt’s right.
……………….
Whether it is concentration of the infielders, or Kenji assuming better location than the harder-and-wilder MLB pitchers are capable of, or what it is …. the results show no signs of changing.
-100 OPS points’ performance, vs. an RLP like Rivera, game after game for three years, isn’t one of those things that you find a way to work around. You have to solve this one.
……………….
I’m pretty sure that the ‘curse’ is mostly traceable to this +100 points at C — not just from a mathematical standpoint, but from an intangibles standpoint.
May 13th, 2008 at 5:46 pm Quote
Did you guys see Baker’s comments today on the current state of the clubhouse?
http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/2008/05/coming_undone.html
According to Baker, apparently Joh and Ichiro “don’t even intermingle all that much”. Concerning to say the least, when what should be the most natural relationship on the team for Kenji isn’t a strong one…
May 13th, 2008 at 5:56 pm Quote
The state of the clubhouse always looks pretty discouraging when you’re losing…especially when you’re one of the reasons why in the case of Johjima. Not only has he not been hitting, but he’s been a terrible defensive player.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:12 pm Quote
BTW…I expect the reason Johjima doesn’t talk to Ichiro much is because Ichiro is his hero. When he signed, he ran out to right field and planted himself where Ichiro had stood all those years…he strikes me as the kind of guy who wouldn’t approach his hero unless invited.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:20 pm Quote
Gah, I tried to post it but the connection keeps getting interrupted.
BABIP note: To find out whether the high BABIP when Kenji is catching or just unlucky or a result of better contact or as a result of bad luck.
As we discuss Kenji’s defense, he has a passed ball generously called a wild pitch.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:23 pm Quote
From Geoff’s blog:
Better get over to Baker’s blog and try to explain the difference between catcher OPS and xFIP, Doc. If you care to enlighten the masses, anyway.
There are some things I want:
1) more games caught by Clement.
2) Somebody to look at Felix’s inconsistent release point and try to sharpen up his mechanics. He always pulls off to the side but there are times he’s just yanking his head over and leaving his arm out to dry. Whoever’s been working with Morrow needs to shift over to Felix now, please.
3) Some life in the clubhouse. I’d really hate to think the Mariners of all teams could use more grit…but we certainly need some more leaders, and we’ve known that for a while.
~G
May 13th, 2008 at 6:39 pm Quote
Or enlighten them on what “throwing under the bus” is used for? Which would be, unfairly picking a fall guy to deflect attention away from a real problem existing elsewhere.
I’m not picking Johjima as an innocent fall guy to try to gain mercy for my own failures in helping the M’s win. :- )
I’m looking at a few By-Catcher pitching splits to figure out what’s actually going on…
……………….
The pitchers *have* been performing *radically* worse under Johjima, since he arrived. Again, it’s not about blame. Maybe it’s all of the pitchers’ faults. Doesn’t matter.
May 13th, 2008 at 6:41 pm Quote
Right, exactly …. if it were 10,000 PA’s worth of bad luck, then we would expect it to change RIGHT THIS SECOND.
If Kenji’s last 10,000 PA’s resulted in an “unlucky” deflection of 40 points on his fielders’ DER, then we would expect that DER to regress to normal … beginning with TONIGHT’s game.
I think we all understand that the splits are going to persist…
May 13th, 2008 at 7:03 pm Quote
It is coming to the point where even I’m questioning whether Joh is a fit here.
The non-reversal of this stat depresses me considering how much I’ve defended Joh over the years. I do think this is either a combination of Joh expecting too much “command” out of his pitchers (leading to falling behind in the count) and/or “the tell” where any time a pitcher shakes off Joh the hitter knows that the next pitch is a fastball (probably more of the latter).
Either way its a problem.
I don’t think the true talent level is a whopping 100 OPS difference (most of our pitchers aren’t bad enough to give up 800 OPSs, but also sure as heck aren’t 700 OPS guys), but clearly this isn’t getting any better.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:06 pm Quote
And for the record, no, I still don’t have any tolerance for Washburn.
May 13th, 2008 at 7:28 pm Quote
Supposing the effect is real (a non-trivial supposition) it would be interesting to find the root cause of the difference. Maybe it is something that is correctable. DrNaka made the guess that Joh isn’t helping his infielders. Could better communication help? It could be something like Joh calling for offspeed pitches while the infielders are setting up for the hitter to hit the ball the other way. That’s something that might not show up in LD% but could manifest in an “unlucky” BABIP.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:02 pm Quote
I must say Baker’s blog article on the clubhouse is not encouraging. Sure, teams like the late 70’s Yankees and the early 70’s Athletics were hardly harmonious, but at least they had “spit in your face” leaders.
After another game fumbled away this evening, you wonder if this team is imploding in the clubhouse as well as on the field.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:27 pm Quote
Another loss due to bad fielding and lack of hits with RISP.
What we know:
1)We know is that the M’s are a very streaky team.
That was true 2007 with help of analysis from Pirata.
Streaky means that they are not robots, the palyers have emotion (or cannot control the emotions) and underperform when they loose and overperform when they win.
2)We know that the 2008 is a very bad team in batting with RISP.
So I think that the defence maybe bad in high LI situation.
It is all bad mental control. The players make bad playes at high pressure.
Maybe Johjima is pushing too hard and makes to much pressure to the defenders.
Anyway one solution to it would be to hire a top quality sports psychologist and give the player lesson every day.
May 13th, 2008 at 8:31 pm Quote
I feel bad for Joh. I would love to see him go somewhere he could succeed and be appreciated for what he is.
Yamauchi would probably not consent to a trade with Boston, but that seems like a perfect fit for Joh. That could be a huge value add for one of the few teams who wouldn’t mind the contract:
-Fresh start
-Fellow Japanese teammates
-Green Monster
-Large Payroll
Joh for RHP Manny Delcarmen?
May 13th, 2008 at 10:36 pm Quote
Gratifying to see the even-handed, empathetic, but realistic responses to this data.
…………….
What the root cause is, of the poor run prevention with Johjima catching, would be interesting to find out. But right now that’s beside the point, unless (as EA says) it’s correctable very quickly.
And we all know that’s verrrrrrrrrry unlikely.
……………….
100 OPS points is simply catastrophic.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:41 pm Quote
Again, it’s beside the point, but if you’re looking for root causes… all guesses MUST incorporate the FACTS:
It doesn’t do any good to suppose, for example, that Johjima simply calls mistake pitches that go for HR’s, because that hypothesis does not capture the DER data.
It also does not do any good to suppose that you could simply re-position the SS & 2B, because that does not capture the (apparent) factoid that Erik Bedard decided, in two starts, that Johjima is subpar. It also does not capture the fact that SS & 2B positioning cannot possibly account for 100 OPS points.
D-O-V has a rebuilt theory as to what is going on, but…
May 13th, 2008 at 10:47 pm Quote
.
It’s also very, very important to note that with all C’s other than Johjima, the 2006-08 M’s DER has been outstanding.
Those who have been critical of the Beltre-Betancourt-Ichiro-era defense’s results, need to slow down. We’ve found a critical hidden factor here. This defense has consistently been performing *extremely well* when other catchers play.
……………
Again, Dr. Naka noted Johjima’s DER last season. The suggestion for 2B and SS to simply concentrate more in front of Johjima is not the same remedy that I personally would suggest; nor do I think that fielding as such is the main issue here … but the original observation is his.
May 13th, 2008 at 10:52 pm Quote
Possibly.
A fielder leaning the wrong way, that’s the same as having a fielder who is a step or two slow.
Whatever the cause … if it’s just an ‘alien C language’ that doesn’t translate to the language that Lopez, Raul, etc., learned growing up …. it’s not going to get better.
…………….
MLB pitchers throw harder-and-wilder than NPB pitchers. Johjima-san is used to calling for a 74 change-curve, followed by an 86 fastball thrown on the black.
If he asks Batista for a fastball on the black, and Batista misses by six inches for a screaming line drive …. that is simply a situation where you are not tailoring your strategy to your pitcher’s talents.
It is second nature for a Burke or a Clement to strategize in terms of hard-and-wild pitching arsenals…
…………….
It need hardly be said that Johjima’s language is not inherently inferior. It may well be superior. But that’s beside the point.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:41 pm Quote
Agreed, here. It sure seems like nobody can throw strikes lately. In addition, I can’t tell if it’s just the M’s fan in me, but it also seems like we’re getting squeezed by the umps a whole lot. I’m sure a portion of that is a self-fulfilling prophecy (when you’re hitting/pitching poorly, the guys who can hit their spots are gonna get the calls). But it’s getting REALLY frustrating. I’m a big Johjima fan, I really. But all signs are pointing to things just not working out. Which makes the contract extension even more confusing. Maybe it was a way to help Kenji save-face when they knew things were going down the tubes?
Also, regarding the bullpen… It seems like all of the same guys who were out machines last year, and a couple notched down from where they were. Why would that be? It was mentioned here at one point that maybe Charlton is not getting the guys warm completely before they come into the game. Sure seems like it takes 2-3 batters before any of them are up to velocity. Except maybe Brandon.
May 13th, 2008 at 11:45 pm Quote
It’s only a matter of time before McLaren is gone. There si no way with the expectation going into this season and the failures thus far he can or will stay on.
The failures of this team cannot all be blamed on Johjima. Period. Im not exscusing his faults. But please this team plays like a pathetica loser and needs a swift kick in the balls to make sure their still alive out there.
Looks at Ichiro he is batting a pathetic .280 for himself he should be well over .300 by now!! This whole team is suffering and I dont see how Bedard is going to resign with us.
Where is the news article saying that the pitchers have talked to Joh about his style problems ??? I would like to know.
They should cut Vidro and Cairo now. Get Griffey to get butts in the seats bring up an extra pitcher from Triple A.
I ought go donw to Safeco and slam my fist on their fracking bench roof until they come out and yell at them to stop being a bunch a losers and work together or walk!
Cause bottom line they may not be World Series calaber but theyre better than this!!!
May 14th, 2008 at 3:37 am Quote
Doc,
For Kenji’s defenders, the stats presented are devastating. Could we be misinterpreting the data in some way? For you, the “Bedard test” is conclusive. What would Dr. Gregory House see here?
May 14th, 2008 at 5:38 am Quote
Doc, first let me say …
Nail, meet Head.
Head, meet Nail.
As noted above, DrNaka was the first to point a finger at the Johjima matador defense, and I believe his wisdom could be critical to the ultimate best case solution to this problem.
While the “cause” remains ellusive - the “correlation” is about as strong as one could ever hope to achieve. That said - judging catcher defense IS difficult. There’s a ton of ways that it is possible for the data to get polluted. (Greg Maddux had a personal catcher other than Javy Lopez - so Lopez suffered in comparison statistically sometimes because the backup was heavily weighted toward catching ONLY Maddux. This is just one example). Small sample size for the backup catcher - and erratic nature of backup catching starts has potential to skew data, also.
But, by and large, logic would tend to lean toward the backup being the one most likely to SUFFER defensively — erratic playing time — less overall familiarity with any and all pitchers, (starter gets dibs on communication channels and analysis). Defense being out-of-sync with the sub.
So, yes - it is possible that the data could be misleading. And lacking any direct studies of backup catcher metrics compared to starters - my suspicion would be that “as a group” starters would tend to perform BETTER than subs. This is complicated by varying talent levels, usage requirements, etc. But, if the data is misleading, my first suspicion would be that it is more likely that the data is UNDERstating the discrepancy rather than overstating it.
============
As for - what now? Given the situation? Personally, I’m thinking the optimal solution to this problem - given the extension to Joh - would be to trade him … but not just to anyone — trade him to *JAPAN*. If Joh was highly regarded in Japan before departing, why not trade him to Japan for a bat or maybe a relief arm?
The club has shown generally stellar ability in regards to judging Eastern talent. Instead of having to drill through the multiple layers of Eastern free agency, is it possible a trade could be finagled?
I have no clue as to how the Joh contract would look in Japanese terms - (but paying portions of contracts is not new to trade negotiations).
I’ll let DrNaka come up with the list of potential win-win trades that might be workable. (Perhaps you can throw in Vidro with your hypothetical trade, while you’re at it, DrN.
===================
May 14th, 2008 at 6:44 am Quote
Trade between MLB and NPB can’t happen. It’s explicitly banned in the working agreement between.
The MLB can send a player on agreement with the player and NPB team, but all non-free agent players leaving Japan have to be posted.
May 14th, 2008 at 7:00 am Quote
Also, before we conclude Joh’s the root of the problem, I think you also have to look at how other team catcher lines mark up, and also historically.
The last couple years the M’s have managed to have historically abysmal pitchers in the rotation. But the M’s have also become collectors of ground ball pitchers. Ground balls have a higher BABIP average, so it’s also a possibility that what we’re seeing is sample size issues, combined with a multitude of entirely situational anomalies..
May 14th, 2008 at 8:17 am Quote
So it maybe that Johjima’s pitch selection is more for ground balls. This will be an answer for bigger DER and lower FIP(lower HR rate). But some pitcher don’t like it…
IIRC you(DrD) said that about 50% of BAP is caught by SS and 2B. So in the big picture isn’t the high DER 50% responsible to SS and 2B?
“LF” Ibanez can do bad but it has minimal effect on team DER anyway because LF has only 5%-10% or so chance to get to BAP.
May 14th, 2008 at 8:37 am Quote
Bedard wouldn’t have a problem with a groundball calling catcher. He hates Johjima anyway. There’s a reason. A great pitcher like Bedard isn’t going to hate a catcher without good cause.
The lower FIP Johjima is getting is caused by higher K rates mostly, and somewhat lower HR rates…but no, I don’t think you’re going to see a significantly higher GB% with Johjima than his back-ups.
The squeeze syndrome only crops up when Johjima is catching, BTW…I do think there’s something to the theory that Johjima’s receiving is causing umpires to blow calls.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:07 am Quote
I thought Baker would try to run with this story a little bit.. but he seems to busy complaining (yet again) about Felix not talking to him, and how Felix is letting the team down, and how Felix isnt doing his job, and how Felix hasnt accomplished anything at this level, etc…
I like the job Baker does, but he gets real whiny at times.. not to mention the kid had an outstanding April.. and still put up a solid start (6 Ip, 3 ER) up last nite, all despite being overworked bigtime so far this season..
May 14th, 2008 at 9:17 am Quote
NyMariner05 wrote:
Baker’s stuff has gone completely down hill, he’s turned into a horrible horrible hack. I can’t stand reading anything he’s putting out lately..ugh horrible.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:27 am Quote
Baker is going through the same fan-frustration we all are…the difference is, his displeasure is all public because of his job. He’s looking for anything and everything to explain why we’re so dishearteningly horrible this year and it’s making him look very bad.
I think the Mariners need to fire John McLaren and all of his defensive coaches though…so many careless, clumsy errors, so many plays lacking fundamental efficiency…that’s a coaching failure as much as it is a player failure.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:48 am Quote
:daps: man …. only caveat, I wouldn’t use the term ‘conclusive.’ Compelling, they are that…
With the data at hand, I don’t see how you have the right to tag anything else as Prime Diagnosis :- ) …. UNTIL more data come along…
May 14th, 2008 at 10:54 am Quote
Hi Doc,
I’d like to see a post with the same catcher breakdowns for the other pitchers on our staff for the past few years. It’d be real interesting to compare and see how each pitcher works with each catcher and whether or not this is isolated or not.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:00 am Quote
Yeah…but that’d put us on our 4th manager since the ‘04 offseason, wouldn’t it?
Melvin’s doing all right with the D-Backs now.
I’d just like to stop breaking in new managers. Our job can’t be THAT bad that we can’t get a qualified guy in to interview.
But if we keep firing Managers every 18 months we’re gonna have trouble getting guys who want to stick their necks out for a 110 million dollar roster that hits like a bunch of anorexic girlscouts and throws hissy fits about their foreign catcher.
At some point you have to put it on the roster construction, and the guy who done constructed it.
A low power, low walk lineup can’t catch up in games. We’ve blown 28 million a year on our 3/4/5 rotation slots. We have 17 million tied up in Ichiro and now another 3/24 in Joh, neither of whom can lead in the clubhouse. Let’s not talk about what Richie has been making, nor how Raul is killing us in the OF.
And the young infield talent we’ve been hanging our hats on for a couple of years now are turning out to be a pair of slap-hitting, low-focus players.
It’s been a pitiful several years of performance under Bavasi. He’s the constant. The managers have changed, the players have changed, but Bavasi is still here putting this together.
It doesn’t look like a great assembly job. I’m much more fond of our young talent stream than I have been, but it’s not translating to wins on the field when he adds vets - and with the Ms love of vets that doesn’t look likely to change soon.
Kenji’s here for a good long time now. I don’t really know what to do about that other than to add at least one Japanese pitcher for him to catch while Clement handles more of the white-pitcher duties.
Now we need to find a way to hypnotize Bedard into accepting a contract offer from us, get one last theoretically-good draft out of Bavasi’s crew, and wish him well.
That has to happen.
~G
May 14th, 2008 at 11:02 am Quote
Is quite possible that this is one fraction of the picture… in proportion, it seems very unlikely that all 11 pitchers (averaged) will have radically different GB/FB splits based on which catcher they throw to…
Many things drive GB/FB rate, starting with velocity… huge correlation between K’s and FB’s, because K’s occur when a hitter swings under a pitch… pitch sequences would be one of the last things I’d expect to cause a deflection in that pattern….
……………
An interesting volley.
IIRC, the basic # of chances per game are: SS 5, 2B 5, 3B 3, CF 3, 1B 2-3*, LF 2, RF 2 … which is why managers put bat-first players in LF and RF and don’t make such a Shakespearean drama out of whether a J.D. Drew is a Gold Glover…
1) That leaves SS & 2B at roughly 10/23 of the defensive chances by putout, though Pinto’s PMR might correct us …
2) about 45% of all outs are caught before they hit the ground IIRC … of the remaining 55%, the DP combo handles what, 3/5 or so… that is maybe 33, 35% of all outs going by groundball to 2B/SS…
3) The difference between a good SS and a ‘bad’ one, in the major leagues, is relatively subtle… supposing that you had simply bad fielders at SS and 2B (which the Mariners do not) it is impossible for me to imagine a switch of the DP combo converting a 713 DER into a 672 DER, as happened last year when the M’s switched catchers… but strange things happen in testing and I’ve been fooled worse before…
4) With Johjima playing, Lopez and Betancourt do not ‘look’ weird to me… when an elephant walks through snow, he leaves huge footprints, and the difference between 713 and 672 DER should be visible on the field … the more so if two players are driving the inefficiency….
……………….
Supposing (for the sake of argument) that is the largest fraction of the problem — that Betancourt and Lopez transform into horrific fielders when Johjima catches —
We are still left with a default solution of changing catchers, unless we can figure out a way for SS & 2B to play as well in front of him as they do in front of every other C…
………………..
Again, nobody admires Johjima-san more than me, and somehow I doubt this is his ‘fault’ in an absolute sense…
May 14th, 2008 at 11:06 am Quote
BTW, David Pinto’s PMR, smooth distance model, had Lopez and Betancourt slightly ABOVE average as a pair for 2007.
Lopez converted 102.2% of the chances that you would expect from an ML 2B in his ‘wedge’ of the field, and Betancourt converted 99.2%. That’s not the end of the discussion, of course.
Per Pinto’s PMR, the entire M’s defense in 2007 should have been middle-of-the-pack… yet their DER was terrible.
It’s as though the balls were being hit through the defense with extra pace… not saying that’s what happened, but that’s what the PMR/DER conflict suggests.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:08 am Quote
I have one disagreement with that, Doc. Actually two.
The difference between a major league ace shortstop and a clod is 6 wins…that’s not subtle…that’s an ace starting pitcher. The impact is the same.
And yes, we do have a BAD fielder at second base. Jose Lopez is not just sloppy…he’s TERRIBLE. Betancourt makes up for his mistakes with his natural range…Lopez does not…Lopez is an absolute clod…ESPECIALLY this year.
Anyway, in general, I agree that you can’t explain the catcher split by talking about about the middle infielders…there’s something fundamentally wrong with the way Johjima works with the pitchers that’s causing our defense to be badly out of sync on a global scale.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:09 am Quote
Also, Dr. N, Taro, Ice, I sure appreciate the unemotional, even-handed way in which you participate in a thread titled ‘Kenji must go’.
;- )
If we were mistaken about it, you would correct us as you would correct a math error, easy on the ‘heat’ and heavy on the ‘light.’ It’s a real pleasure having you in the discussion.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:15 am Quote
Would bet dollars to donuts that this is a decent fraction of the reality here.
We might re-phrase a bit… ‘causing’ sort of implies that it’s Johjima’s fault. Matt and everybody else would agree that it’s the umpire’s job to call a strike, a strike. Their personal preferences shouldn’t enter into it anywhere near as much as they do…
May 14th, 2008 at 11:17 am Quote
Your sheer baseball JUDGMENT never fails to dazzle, Sandy…
Yeah, how’d you like the RENE RIVERA splits against Johjima-san?!
………………..
This 100+ point (125-150 vs what another regular might do?) split is simply incredible. I wouldn’t have thought a 100-point split possible, even if *I* was behind the plate.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:19 am Quote
The more data I review, the more I am convinced that Johjima is SPECIFICALLY the problem with team DER. But not in a way where one could easily see the “fix”.
Based on Johjima’s comments regarding his pitch-calling decision matrix — the fixation in almost every case is “how do I avoid disaster?”
That is the singularly worst approach to pitch calling I can imagine. As a matter of philosophy, what one concentrates on is what one manifests. If you are THINKING about HRs all the time, (even preventing them), then what you end up doing is manifesting them. While such talk may seem like voodoo to some - it is a basic tenet of MANY self-help regimens and religions. While I’m no expert on Eastern religion and philosophy, I am fairly certain that such a view is common in Japanese culture.
I haven’t seen a single quote from Johjima where he said - “well, I thought this was the pitch that could strike him out,” or even - “I thought we could get a DP with that pitch.” The quotes are all “disaster prevention”.
The end result of this has two primary outcomes — one is you manifest what you were attempting to prevent. The second is that by never concentrating on being aggressive, that you end up being passive, and the result is a pitch-calling regimen that is the equivalent of being nibbled to death by ducks. Neither outcome is desireable. Perhaps Joh is more victimized by item #2 (evidence - DER) — but item #1 is the one that ends up being more obvious when it occurs - (the actual bad-pitch dingers).
But, the pattern is hard to see, because it isn’t about calling too much of this or that. It’s about calling a pitch INTENDED to give up a single instead of HR based on count, player and game conditions - instead of calling a pitch intended to strike a guy out or induce a DP.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:20 am Quote
I’d have thought that, Ice, if Rivera, Burke, and Clement weren’t catching the same pitchers …. if the splits weren’t so drastic in each individual year… if we weren’t talking about 10,000 PA’s worth of .320 BABIP’s in front of Joh.
IF Johjima were “calling ground balls” due to his luck-of-the-draw on SP’s, that would mean he’s catching FELIX a lot …. and that would mean the high OPS’s were even more shocking… Johjima can’t be getting (1) a lot of Felix games and at the same time getting (2) lower-quality starters in his draw.
Johjima’s raw OPS numbers are very high. That doesn’t jibe with a high GB% and Felix rate.
GB’s lead to high BABIP, but not to high OPS. BOTH of those stats are impossibly high for Johjima.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:27 am Quote
.
BTW, if Pudge Rodriguez went to Japan, I could easily see everything going to pot there, too.
Suppose his OPS+ was very high, his team DER very low, etc etc etc … fans would be saying “I thought this guy was good?”
Pudge’s defensive quality is a given, in the absolute sense… the ‘blame’ isn’t on him, but on the circumstances…
Johjima’s defense quality is also a given, IMHO… but the circumstances are clear…
May 14th, 2008 at 11:31 am Quote
G
Dr. D remains a Bavasi supporter, but that is a concise summary against…
Pat Gillick has always had a knack for assembling a ballclub. The Mariners have definitely never looked anything like a ballclub recently.
To be fair, it usually takes 10 years to recover from a crash like the M’s had, not three (BP just had a good piece on this w/r/t SF). And then the Hargrove-Bavasi disconnect worked against the M’s.
Like Johjima, I feel for the circumstances under which Bavasi has worked.
But yeah.
May 14th, 2008 at 11:36 am Quote
VERRRY provocative.
This is the Japanese mindset — mistake prevention — and it’s the reason my Sony SXRD TV and my Honda Civic run with unbelievable reliablity…
I admire the precision, intelligence, and low defect rates that Japan produces ….
However, any worldview whatsoever has its two sides of the coin… in baseball, mistake avoidance philosophy can definitely cost you runs in certain contexts …
……………..
Never thought about how this would apply to pitch calling. In the WBC, American hitters did not have notable success punishing The Japanese Way :- ) but perhaps this is also a disconnect in attitude…
May 14th, 2008 at 12:17 pm Quote
I think American pitchers are annoyed with Johjima because (a) the way he flames the close pitches does more harm than good getting close strike calls (b) his pitch-calling strategy doesn’t focus on maximizing a pitcher’s natural skills - rather instead it focuses on pitching to Johjima’s personal scouting report on the hitter (which is causing guys like Washburn to throw pitches with ZERO confidence because they’re not throwing the pitches they want to throw), (c) Johjima’s game is confusing the fielders (causing a lot of cheap hits that aggravate pitchers and (d) Johjima refuses to set his target early, which makes it hard to “clear the mechanism” and get laser focused on every pitch.
All of this is combining to produce a total lack of confidence in his pitchers that’s costing the team an average of a run a game (the 100 OPS difference amounts to a LOT of runs). Washburn’s utter exasperation with Johjima under these circumstances has to be understood. His behavior might not be generally acceptable (going to the media about it lacks class) but you have to understand that he’s defending his next contract…Johjima screwing him up by a full run of ERA could be the difference between him getting 12 million a year and 5 million a year the next time he has the chance to get a contract.
And frankly…none of this would be a problem with Johjima if he would freakin’ ASSIMILATE into American culture. Stop being stubborn and prideful…even if your way really is better, it DOESN’T MATTER…when in Rome, do as the Romans do or get the heck out of there. America is the great melting pot of the world because people come from around the world to BE AMERICAN…integrating their unique cultural identity into our own and bending a little themselves. Johjima isn’t bending…not even a little bit is he adapting to his new home. He doesn’t speak English, he doesn’t understand why his pitchers hate him so much, he won’t change the way he thinks, he won’t talk to guys like Burke to learn why they have success despite having way less talent than he does.
May 14th, 2008 at 1:42 pm Quote
That first paragraph, your usual razor-sharp analysis Matty…
The second and third paragraphs are hyper-controversial :- ) which is the grist to DOV’s mill…
Will cheerfully admit that, if our light bulb on Johjima-san is valid, then Washburn’s remarks have to be re-evaluated. Which is not the same thing as saying, condoned.
………………….
It’s just one game, of course, but we all notice that with Clement catching today, the M’s had an excellent run-prevention day through 7 innings (Silva in the Texas heat, only 2-3 runs up to late in the game).
May 14th, 2008 at 2:47 pm Quote
Doc…read the second paragraph again. I wasn’t defending Washburn’s actions per say. I even said his specific behavior might not be acceptable given the lack of class it showed.
As for the third paragraph, I don’t want to make it sound like I want everyone to be exactly the same as me…but when you live in a place, you do have to show some respect to the people you’re with and their customs. You don’t go to Spain and yell at people for sunbathing topless…that’s what they do over there. You don’t go to America and refuse to play the American game.
May 14th, 2008 at 3:24 pm Quote
Well, in defense of your position, that is exactly how a Pacific League manager would put it to Jeff Clement…
May 14th, 2008 at 4:22 pm Quote
A few questions…
1: What precisely is the mechanism, the causal model, for Johjima to cause the middle infielders to miss balls in play? Don’t we need BIP type data before we say the BABIP thing is a *fielding* problem or something else? That is, one thing that really jumps out in the OPS+ splits by catcher is Kenji’s higher SLG allowed. So, is he giving up more line drives? If so, that would explain both the fielding/BABIP stats as well as the OPS+ stats, and would do so in a way that makes more sense to me than something about concentration or what not. The team fielding stats at THT try to take BIP type into account, and by that metric, the M’s have the worst D in baseball - ergo, maybe Kenji really IS doing something. But I’m not convinced quite yet.
2: Matt, what exactly would assimilating MEAN in a baseball sense. How exactly do Americans play baseball? Like Willie Bloomquist, or Barry Bonds? Like Troy Tulowitzki or Raul Ibanez? Like Ken Griffey Jr., or Dick Allen? It’s not that the statement is ‘controversial,’ it’s devoid of specificity. Is it that he needs to talk to his teammates more? Like Bedard and Carlton? If it’s that he needs to change the way he thinks…change it to what? I’m not denying that Kenji’s game calling is a big issue; I questioned it in a USSM thread the other day (that was dedicated to venting at Washburn). But laying the problems at the feet of assimilation just seems counterproductive without defining a few terms first.
3: I will totally agree that I understand Washburn much more after reviewing the numbers. I still can’t say that doing this in public is the right thing, but yeah, you’ve got to understand how important this is to Wash. So - will Mac use Burke or Clement to catch both Bedard and Wash? If so, will the other pitchers demand something similar?
4: Have we perhaps underestimated Rivera to a well-nigh unimaginable degree? I’d love to see his splits in the minors the past two years, but his splits are *amazing.* I know he can’t hit, but this is remarkable if it’s at all true. The sample size is so tiny that the chance that it IS true isn’t huge, but if so, how many runs would he save if you prorate it out?
5: If Jose Lopez was a good defender who had occasional lapses of concentration, how would you know? Every defensive metric rates him above average. every one. That isn’t true of Ichiro, Sizemore, etc. I’m thinking it means something. This season and last season make me more aware of how black holes on D, even at non-premium defensive positions, can result in huge DER and OPS swings. The M’s currently have problems at 1B and LF, but that shouldn’t matter as much given the number of chances per game the guys get. Statistically, Lopez is playing better this year than last year (the trend line is clear for the past three years), Beltre’s Beltre… so either Ichiro and Betancourt are historically terrible, or the old assumption that you can stash a statue at 1B or LF may not hold. I think Betancourt IS a problem, and his range is small and shrinking, but even a BAD shortstop (and I’m not ready to straight-up call him BAD) can’t account for the DER that the M’s are running out there. So what’s up? Is it Lopez and Betancourt, or is it a true team effort?
May 14th, 2008 at 4:40 pm Quote
America. The melting pot of the world.
Yeah. Right.
There is no specificity in the American game.
You have Latin Free Swingers. You have The Kid. You have Manny being Manny. You have Ichiro.
The problem is the M’s are pragmatic, lack vision and are fractured.
The Red Sox are entirely different in this regard.
Have you seen Okajima pitch?
He doesn’t even LOOK where he throws the ball and they let it be.
The result is getting one of the best LH Setup pitchers this side of George Sherrill for pennies.
Matsuzaka is going through struggles, but they do everything in their strength to cater to him in the ENTIRE organization.
The Red Sox don’t assimilate.
They INTEGRATE.
In the 20th Century, the best way was the Yankee Way.
This century, it’s the Red Sox Way that takes the cake.
May 14th, 2008 at 4:42 pm Quote
Lopez isn’t making occasional mistakes. He’s making mistakes in very specific, catastrophically important situations. Every time they really need him to make the plays, he fails. Or at least way more often than he should. The range-based metrics like PMR aren’t going to see that…they’re not going to see that Lopez’ mistakes are costing the team way more runs than they would if they were at random moments.
Lopez is a gold glove second baseman except when we need a gold glove second baseman, then he’s a clown.
As for what is wrong with Johjima that’s screwing up the fielders…yes, it would help if we were looking at trajectory data, but GBs are GBs whether they’re three hoppers or one-hop missiles. Some of this is going to get lost in those kinds of splits.
As for what assimilating means…it would help if he communicated with his pitchers and infielders before games and really went into detail about how they wanted to build their in-game strategy to specific hitters. My point is…why are he and Washburn always fighting? There’s a reason…I think it comes down to him not learning and adjusting to Washburn’s preferences. And that’s a big part of a catcher’s job over here that I think he’s failing at for everyone, not just Washburn.
May 14th, 2008 at 4:56 pm Quote
Ive only come up with two situations where Lopez was “a clown”… one was in a 4-0 game, when he short armed a ball up the middle.. we played like garbage that night anyway.. and im not convinced if he makes that play, it does anything but prolong the inevitable, which was another blowout loss..
The one the other night I’ll give you.. it was a horrendous play.. other than that, im having a tough time coming up with situations where he’s made critical errors.. Betancourt and Ibanez have been much worse the last two years..
I dont get all the animosity for Lopez.. outside of Raul, he’s been the only player to bring it, day in and day out offensively through 42 games..
May 14th, 2008 at 5:08 pm Quote
I’m with you, NyM. He’s been a statistically good defender for a few years, and while his bat’s no great shakes, he’s been more consistent *this year* than anyone else. He’s clearly not the problem here. The play in that 4-0 game (soon 10-0) was terrible, but Wlad’s play last night was terrible too, and Wlad’s still one of my favorite M’s.
May 14th, 2008 at 5:25 pm Quote
Wlad made up for it today with that diving catch that saved the game..
Im been very impressed with him so far despite the K’s..
Nice to have a guy that can hit the ball to the moon off good pitching
May 14th, 2008 at 5:27 pm Quote
NYM…are you kidding me? Bringing it offensively? Let’s see…a .310 OBP with no power. Yeah…not excited about that.
I was bad at Lopez before that short-arm play in the 4-0 game…that didn’t magically appear out of nowhere…he’s got 4 errors on the year and that short-arm play wasn’t one of them. He also air-mailed a routine toss to Betancourt with two on against the Angels in a game we eventually lost by one (two unearned runs on that play) and has dropped 4 recent Johjima throws on CS attempts that were more or less right on the money and in plenty of time for easy outs if he’d just catch the danged ball first and THEN make the tag…not the reverse…those are the events that leap to mind, but there’ve been others this year.
It strikes me as hilarious that some of you Lopez defenders argued with me about the value of Vidro’s .380 OBP out of the 2 hole last year and now think Lopez is awesome offensively despite the .310 OBP with no power…it’s just mystifying to me.
May 14th, 2008 at 5:29 pm Quote
Wlad’s been outstanding defensively other than whiffing that one play last night on the single. Ibanez is worse than Lopez defensively, and Betancourt also needs to learn how to focus…but season seems “highlighted” to me by spectacular defensive failures by a few key people in the most important games…headlined by Lopez and Betancourt.
May 14th, 2008 at 5:52 pm Quote
Well, if you’re holding your breath for a .400 OBP from Lopez, you might want to consider filling out your will…
That said, a .310 OBP is not acceptable at all if it’s unaccompanied by a .480 slg%. But we all know that Jose is capable of that type of power, and we also know that he’s taken strides forward offensively this season, based on his overall approach more than the numbers.
The defense, I’ll totally give you. You can’t have bonehead play, or lackadaisical play from your middle positions if they aren’t .850′ing their respective OPS’s. Even if they are doing that, then you might want to move them to a less critical defensive position so they don’t hurt so much. The Adam Everett’s of the world are worth quite a bit, it turns out, but you need to put them on rosters full of sluggers to make the maneuver provide any value.
May 14th, 2008 at 6:04 pm Quote
Of course a .310 OBP isnt acceptable.. but have you seen some of the numbers from the rest of our players??
The argument isnt that Lopez is having a great yr or something.. it’s that he’s been one of our most consistent and better offensive players this yr…
Yes that is sad given he’s hitting .310 or something with 10 doubles a 2 homers… but that’s the reality..
Ichiro is hitting a totally empty .270 right now.. dont know what his OBP, but it cant be good..
Johjima.. terrible.. Vidro terrible.. Clement terrible.. Betancourt terrible..
Sexson hits a HR once a week and draws a walk or two.. so that makes him appear better than Lopez.. despite the fact he spends most of the weeks games striking out and looking lost..
Lopez has made 3-4 pretty bad defensive plays.. but no worse than what Ibanez has been doing out in LF.. Sexson at 1B.. or what Betancourt has been doing the last two yrs…
May 14th, 2008 at 8:33 pm Quote
Ibanez, Beltre and Balentien are flat outhitting Lopez. Sexson is a better (and even more consistently productive) hitter than Lopez on the road. Considering how bad we are offensively right now, it’s sad that Lopez is probably our FIFTH best hitter.
Not counting Clement, who has looked a LOT better than his numbers have turned out.
Consistency is overrated. If you consistently SUCK, then you still SUCK. End of story.
Let’s see who’s contributing more to wins right now:
In order of assistance:
Ichiro: +0.34
Ibanez: +0.15
WILKERSON: -0.08 (LOL)
Sexson: -0.16
Beltre: -0.19
Lopez: -0.23
Like I said…consistency is overrated…for him “consistently bringing it night in night out” he’s been less useful than Wilky was while he was here. And that’s really…really sad.
May 14th, 2008 at 8:44 pm Quote
I agree with your general opinion that ‘consistency is overrated,’ and I think that in terms of offensive performance you’re right. But remember one of the big reasons our offense worked so well last year, simply because they strung out 10 hits every single night (9 singles, usually..lol) and scored 4-5 runs. So consistency actually does have value, from a team-wide perspective and from the individual player’s perspective.
But like I said, I agree that consistency is overrated. It’s just that a high BA, low BB, low K offense is a model of consistency, and it’s built on guys similar to Lopez.
Even still, he needs to be better than he’s been, not more consistent.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:31 pm Quote
yes…team offensive consistency leads to wins above Pythag projections…and yes…it’s good if you can get 10 hits a night. But on a single-player level, you want both consistency and excellence…Sexson is wildly inconsistent but still more valuable on a win by win level (despite killing many rallies, his WPA is higher)…for example.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:54 pm Quote
Right, I agree with your overall point Matt
I’d rather have Sexson (well, prime Sexson, for the purposes of this discussion) than John Olerud/Tino Martinez. Yes, he’s going to frustrate you tons when he’s off, but he can literally carry you when he’s on. Olerud, aside from those couple of outstanding seasons in TOR, wasn’t that. He was a rock-solid MOTO bat that would work a pitcher and get on base, doing some damage along the way. But he couldn’t do it all himself.
So yeah, I agree. And maybe Olerud is better than I’m giving him credit for, his whole career considered, but I think my point is well made nonetheless.
May 14th, 2008 at 9:58 pm Quote
Well, according to these numbers it seems to hold just fine when Kenji isn’t catching. It would also jive with the judgement of baseball managers going back to the beginning of time. That’s what is so interesting here.
I’m not sure I buy the interpretation of this data, but it is something worth thinking about.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:07 pm Quote
BTW Doc, since Jose has been mentioned quite a bit in this thread how about a new thread on him? I find the vastly improved approach at the plate interesting. He’s been getting into much deeper counts, yet he isn’t walking more OR striking out more. I’d guess that pitchers are just giving in right now when the count is 3-2. It seems like he’s on the verge of something big.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:13 pm Quote
You know…I hope you’re right about Lopez, EA…it’s possible. I called Ibanez getting hot back in April because he was hitting a lot of warning track flyouts…I called Clement ot get hot here (and he’s starting to heat up) because HE was hitting the ball hard. Lopez leads the universe in warning track flyouts this year…maybe this time when the weather heats up, the longballs will start?
May 14th, 2008 at 10:19 pm Quote
BTW…Lopez isn’t getting into deeper counts…not really. In week one, he drew 4.3 pitches/PA (we all remember this)…since then, 3.6 P/PA…which is essentially where he’s been his whole career.
So no…his approach isn’t that much better.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:20 pm Quote
No time right now but … #56, Marc that post is a GEM.
#71, indeed… let’s see, high interest in Lopez and also in Batista’s new incarnation… a Thursday Morning Tazoberry should provide blanket D-O-V shtick on that kind-er stuff…
Good stuff dudes :- )
…………..
Clement caught today, day after a night game. Any chance we’ll see a new catcher Friday?
May 14th, 2008 at 10:24 pm Quote
Yeah, that’s sort of what I’m thinking. If he starts to have a few of those flyballs clear the fence then pitchers are going to have to be a bit more careful. If his newfound discipline (I wouldn’t truly call it patience yet) is legit then we could see a power AND walk surge this summer.
Right now I’m getting the vibe I got during Carlos Guillen’s last year here. Carlos was putting together a lot of really nice AB’s though they weren’t truly paying off at the time. I was a Sad Panda when we dumped him for Aurillia. There was no doubt in my mind that Carlos would have the much better year.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:25 pm Quote
Johjima will be back Friday…I guarantee it…I’m hoping against hope that Clement gets to catch and Johjima DHs though.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:28 pm Quote
A lot of Lopez ABs have been ending with him swinging at max effort on a good pitch to hit and flying out to the deep outfield. Kid should eat some PEDs or lift weights or something…he’s not far from being a 30 HR guy but it requires more power than he has thus far generated. Maybe he’s juuuuuust missing a lot like Ibanez was in early April…I’ll be hoping so…because his .310 OBP isn’t going to help the team win unless he’s also slugging .480+
May 14th, 2008 at 10:32 pm Quote
Right.
Assuming that Yamauchi and Lincoln won’t accept a radical solution … you’re left with, OK, is there some SINGLE pitcher who does not suffer DER/OPS penalties here?
Then perhaps Johjima could (1) catch those 20% of the starts, (2) DH, (3) backup at catcher, (4) 1B/PH a little, etc … Johjima is a pretty fine hitter on the road.
But that’s one more ‘hedged’ solution that fails to choose … the pennant.
May 14th, 2008 at 10:34 pm Quote
Johjima and Batista seem to work well together…at least it appears that way from the CF camera.
But Batista isn’t long for this rotation.
Johjima works very well with Putz, Morrow and Rowland-Smith. *shrug*
May 14th, 2008 at 10:48 pm Quote
Hmm, Washburn and Silva are “fast” workers, I think Bedard too. Batista is very deliberate. I think we may have something regarding the kind of pitcher (deliberate) that Johjima work well with. On second thoughts, Moyer is a deliberate pitcher, right?
May 14th, 2008 at 11:04 pm Quote
Moyer was deliberate only when there were people on base. Batista thinks like Johjima though…pitches backwards off the cutter a LOT. Rarely throws his best fastball. Also…he doesn’t seem to mind talking to Johjima regularly during the game…which might be improving their decision-making. Washburn and Bedard both *HATE* talking to their catcher…they both expect the catcher to know what they want to do and call it right the first time…every time Bedard shakes off Johjima you can see him looking frustrated.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:00 am Quote
Doc,
I have read, re-read, and finally read again your initial post and all of the comments. The data are indeed compelling, and the comments that offer supporting ideas or different perspectives are extremely well-thought-out. It’s probably the finest baseball discussion I have participated in. This is why I read DOV every day.
May 15th, 2008 at 12:32 pm Quote
Dr. D.
This is one of the most impressive reversals I have seen on a blog. You rarely see some one come out and say they were wrong when they basically control the microphone and when they do it is usually because some one else points out their error, perhaps many other people. In most cases we all tend to just be silent when we realize our hard fought stances were off the mark.
In your case, you went and researched the data in an area of baseball stats that few even think to look at. Kudos to you and kudos to all the Johjima defenders who took this well and kept it civil. Great discussion on everyone’s part.
H&R
May 15th, 2008 at 1:33 pm Quote
(Where’s that can of gasoline? I know it was around here somewhere.)
Oddly enough, I have long been in the catchers-really-don’t-matter-defensively camp.
But, these Joh numbers are opening my eyes to the reality that I could very well be wrong. Some additional historic perspective.
2005:
Player — PAs — OPS - BABIP
M Olivo - 1776 - .755 - .290
Borders - 1355 - .746 - .283
Yorvit T- 1330 - .736 - .285
2004:
Player — PAs —- OPS - BABIP
D Wilson - 3629 - .789 - .292
M Olivo — 1717 - .758 - .270
Borders — 597 - .764 - .301
===============
Strange that Joh is the ONLY catcher with significant innings since 2004 to allow a BABIP over .300. The general rule seems to be starkly steady numbers for players (save for small sample sizes). And Joh’s stats are dregful by any standard.
However, contrary to my instinct, there seems to be a trend of backups being steadily better DER-wise than starters. Of course, one would need to look beyond the Ms to get a better view of the scape.
==========
Based on all data - the Ms have had a .287ish defense since 2004 - EXCEPT with Joh behind the plate.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:39 pm Quote
.287 would be close to the league lead most years…not THE lead…but darned close.
So…the Mariners’ defense hasn’t changed since 2001…we coach and scout defense very well. Except Johjima. Wow.
May 15th, 2008 at 1:58 pm Quote
#84,85
While I agree that its looking like Johjima isn’t helping, I still wouldn’t want to credit 100% of the difference to Joh.
Theres just no way we have a staff of 700 OPSs, or anywhere close to it. I also can’t see how our true talent level is under .300 BABIP with the defense being what it is.
I’m more open to likely possibility that Joh is contributing the BABIP some, but definetly not all, or even most of it. Some part of that is statistical noise, some part of it is real.
May 15th, 2008 at 2:06 pm Quote
Ordinarily, I’d agree. It bothers me, however that four different back-up catchers have come and gone and they all have the same huge split with Johjima. There’s gotta be a reason for that.
May 15th, 2008 at 3:56 pm Quote
So, I asked the question - what about some other teams - so why don’t I go look at some random ones. For no particular reason, let’s try: Detroit, Texas, St. Louis - last three seasons.
Detroit
2007 - PAs — OPS - BABIP
Pudge - 4588 - .752 - .293
Rabelo- 1757 - .799 - .293
2006
Pudge — 4478 - .726 - .285
Wilson - 1667 - .724 - .288
2005
Pudge — 4400 - .759 - .290
Wilson - 1739 - .787 - .297
=================
St. Louis
2007
Y Molina - 3729 - .759 - .294
Bennett — 1648 - .786 - .301
Stinnett - 902 — .771 - .300
2006
Y Molina - 4477 - .776 - .300
Bennett — 1691 - .793 - .279
2005
Y Molina - 3975 - .701 - .282
E. Diaz — 1303 - .771 - .312
==================
Texas
2007
G Laird - 4392 - .778 - .303
J Salty - 851 — .790 - .318
2006
Barajas - 3633 - .765 - .311
G Laird - 2481 - .762 - .307
2005
Barajas - 4526 - .778 - .303
S Alomar- 1408 - .755 - .321
========================
There’s some raw data - let the analysis begin!
May 15th, 2008 at 4:06 pm Quote
hard to analyze three teams…but the common link is…none of them had the kinds of HUGE splits that Johjima does on a consistent basis…
May 15th, 2008 at 4:09 pm Quote
That having been said…I am essentially persuaded that during the PBP era at the very least, I’m going to be crediting defensive (fielding) runs to catchers for how they influence a team’s runs allowed relative to the other catchers on their roster. Attempting at the very least to capture the impact catchers have on their pitching staff.
May 15th, 2008 at 4:47 pm Quote
#88
Hmm… Judging from Sandy’s post, it looks to be pretty random in general.
Still, the trend in Seattle has lingered too long for me to completely disregard it as noise, even though I think part of it is likely just that.
Maybe this is a study that could be expanded on?
May 15th, 2008 at 5:03 pm Quote
I did some checking on Rivera’s game logs for 2006 and this is what I got for his starts
4/15 A Pineiro4/23 H Felix
4/24 H Moyer
4/30 A Moyer
5/04 H Felix
5/10 H Moyer
5/25 H Meche
5/28 H Pineiro
6/08 H Pineiro
6/11 A Felix
6/17 H Meche
6/25 A Pineiro
7/02 H Washburn
7/09 H Meche
7/16 A Felix
7/19 A Meche
7/26 H Moyer
7/30 A Pineiro
8/02 A Felix
8/05 H Pineiro
8/09 H Washburn
8/20 A Woods
8/22 H Baek
8/23 H Felix
8/27 H Baek
9/03 A Felix
9/10 H Felix
9/13 H Baek
9/23 A Felix
9/26 H Woods
I also did some counts of home/away and starter. It probably would have been a good idea to do this for day/night games as well as I bet Rivera probably played in more than his fair share of day games.
H +++++++++++++++++++A +++++++++++
Starter
Felix +++++++++
Moyer ++++
Meche ++++
Pineiro ++++++
Washburn ++
Woods ++
Baek +++
Now it is clear that Rivera caught more home games and caught more Felix starts. His starts are a skewed sample but, at first glance, not outrageously so (except for probably the previously mentioned day/night games).
I did collate this by hand so there may be errors. I tried to be careful, but mistakes happen. Now who wants to do the other years?
May 15th, 2008 at 5:16 pm Quote
A lot of 2006 Felix isn’t going to help his OPS…2006 Felix wasn’t a very good pitcher.
May 15th, 2008 at 5:18 pm Quote
And yes taro…there’s going to be noise…but how many PA of back-up catchers do we need to start gaining confidence that the pitchers’ true talents lie somewhere significantly below the .800 OPS barrier that Johjima keeps crossing?
May 15th, 2008 at 5:36 pm Quote
That’s an impossible question to answer without doing the research necessary to determine the variation among all catchers. There are some things that require giant sample sizes before the observed data can be taken at face value. Furthermore, there are other factors that need to be taken into account, like the quality of the pitcher, the opposing lineup and the park. Backup catchers, especially the ones playing for the M’s, make just a handful of starts a year which means the conditions they are playing under may be quite different than that of the starters which only compounds the sample size issues.
If you don’t do any rigorous analysis of the amount of luck that goes into the splits Dr. D gave, then it is entirely possible that they mean NOTHING AT ALL.
May 15th, 2008 at 8:32 pm Quote
I haven’t done the rigorous analysis, you are correct CPB. I would lean toward thinking that three full seasons where the split persists have meaning regardless of potential biases. But you are correct, that before we start assuming that Kenji is worth exactly -0.8 R/G or whatever we find the splits saying he’s worth, we need to factor out as much noise as we can. I don’t need rigorous analysis to tell me that Johjima is bad for team defense. I need it to tell me HOW BAD.
May 15th, 2008 at 9:16 pm Quote
#95, 96: I’d actually think you’re both right on this. You can’t quantify, with any measure of certainty, Kenji’s negative contribution to run prevention for this team without doing really rigorous, time-consuming analysis of HUGE piles of data.
But to see a recurring trend, and to have anecdotal evidence present to support a conclusion the trend points towards, such as we find the current clashes with Joh/Wash or Joh/Erik, we need to realize there is a phenomenon present. The next step is to observe said phenomenon, which we’ve already begun to do.
It’s easy to find data that supports our own conclusions, which is why so many people are impressed with this article..because it’s an about-face of a position which many of us here hold dear.
I think this data points to a certain effect that Kenji has on our team’s defense. And I would guess that effect is enough to significantly decrease his overall value as a primary catcher. But we need more data analysis before we can declare anything with certainty.
May 15th, 2008 at 10:29 pm Quote
It’s not three whole seasons, it’s the middle of May! Also, the backups don’t play full seasons. Rather, you have 30 games worth of innings from Rivera in 2006, 36 games worth of innings from Burke last year, and 10 games from Burke/Clement this year. That’s not a single season of innings from the backups, it’s not even half a season. Considering how difficult it is to infer catcher influence on pitching performance, this is almost certainly not a big enough sample size to make snap judgments on.
Nonsense. The pitchers on the mound and the fielders behind him are certainly much bigger factors in effecting the opponents OPS and BABIP than the guy behind the plate. Therefore, it’s going to take very serious research to make even general claims like someone is “bad”, let alone argue that someone is catastrophically terrible.
All we have now is the possibility that Johjima is a poor pitch caller, and that possibility NEEDS to be investigated further before any hyperbolic statements are made like “Kenji must go”.
May 15th, 2008 at 10:34 pm Quote
Matt, I’m sure your familiar with Tango’s With or Without you technique. Would that be an effective way of investigating this?
May 15th, 2008 at 10:40 pm Quote
CPB…yes, that would. He did a WOWY analysis on catchers’ influence on things like wild pitches and stolen bases…you could extend that to an analysis of pitcher-catcher pairings for things like line drive percentage, HR/Fly, called strike percentage etc. A real tools-analysis. I would NOT recommend trying to do this for things like earned runs or straight results data that is also biased by defense…but you can look to see which catchers are helping their pitchers in ways that are independent of who the fielders are.
May 15th, 2008 at 10:47 pm Quote
The stats I was thinking of were walks, strikeouts and BABIP. I also would suggest looking at hitter pairs. That is, check how opposing batters do with Kenji behind the plate and when someone else is catching.
May 15th, 2008 at 10:50 pm Quote
hitter/catcher pairs will have TIIIIINY sample sizes. Not sure that’s going to give us anything. Couldn’t hurt to look…but…not high on my priority list at the moment.
BABIP is a stat worth looking at…but a fundamental tools analysis might give us more information. If you want to know whether Johjima is causing his pitchers to get hit harder…check the LD%, HR/Fly and then maybe BABIP to screen out impacts on groundballs…if you want to know if he’s screwing up the strike zone…check called strike %, K/BB, BB rate…
May 16th, 2008 at 3:15 am Quote
Increasing the precision of the data is all well and good.
From a 30,000-foot view, though ….. the M’s BABIP against (1-DER) was .328 last year with Johjima catching, and that’s with a bunch of very good defenders out there (3B, CF, probably SS, and others).
The M’s defense has been performing terribly, and the team itself has been snakebitten, and we’ve got plenty of data establishing that trend.
The idiotic drum-banging over Raul Ibanez’ 2 chances a game has blinded the entire audience to assume that the M’s defense as a whole *should* be horrific. No, it shouldn’t be. The M’s defense, in Safeco, should be at least average-solid, and yet it’s catastrophic year-in year-out… since Johjima started catching.
…………….
Now you’ve got a celery-crisp split between Johjima and his backups — a split that contrasts sharply with where all the nice random-looking C splits were, that Sandy dug up.
You can go out and re-test the data if you want; that’s fine. But Johjima is at about 10,000 PA’s here, and the current working hypothesis is clear. Johjima is costing us 100 OPS points, hard on the barrelhead. My PREDICTION is that he will continue to do so.
……………..
Now, in the spirit of, “If you were wrong, how would you know,” go ahead and go get the strike zone data and the LD% data. But that 100 OPS split, across as many PA’s as we’ve got, is convincing.
Who wants to run over to a Binomial Calculator website, and calculate the chances of a split like Johjima/backups occurring by random chance? I’ll guarantee you it’s way, way past the 0.95 threshhold needed to tentatively verify a postulate. It’s probably past 1 in 100,000.
May 16th, 2008 at 5:35 am Quote
Starters (9) - 3 years, 3 teams
OPS difference from prime reliever (+ means better)
+47 … -2 … +28
+27 … +17 .. +70
+12 … -3 … -23
BABIP difference from prime reliever (+means better)
+0 … +3 … +7
+7 … -21 .. +30
+15 .. -4 … +18
Starter had superior OPS 6 of 9 samples
Starter had superior DER 6 of 9 samples (1 tie)
Only 2 samples were more than 30 points difference.
The study is too tiny to draw any conclusions, but the hint of a trend is as I suggested - that starters tend to have superior OPS and DER figures than backups. As Matt noted, *NONE* of them has the kind of long-term VAST skew that Joh has compared to
each of his backups.
May 16th, 2008 at 5:48 am Quote
Great story by Jim Caple on NPB featuring Darvish Yu
Dice-K 2.0
Darvish, just being remotely connected Seattle give me some hope
Nice video too - a must see!
May 16th, 2008 at 9:46 am Quote
Johjima would make himself useful if he would recruit Darvish Yu for us.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:22 am Quote
Good for you, Matt. You found a site where you can spend post after post slamming Jose Lopez without getting called on it. You must be very happy. And, proud too. Actually, Mr. Baseball is surprised Doc has given you a pass.
Your selective use of stats is incredible.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:29 am Quote
I have been posting here since long before Jose Lopez became a fixture in the Mariners’ line-up and will continue to post here long after he goes elsewhere. I chose to leave MarinerCentral specifically because of people like you getting free reign to say snide, obnoxious things like what you just said here. Please feel free to point out what exactly is wrong with slamming a guy who doesn’t get on base, doesn’t hit for power, plays poorly on defense in critical situations (even if he’s playing well on defense overall), and hasn’t done anything to help the team break out of its’ offensive slump despite evidently being fairly consistent in producing what he produces (an empty .300 BA).
And then please feel free to stop the personal attacks and/or get lost.
May 16th, 2008 at 11:04 am Quote
Gee, Mr. Baseball’s feelings are hurt.
He could point out runs scored, runs driven in, leading the league in run producing SF’s, leading the team in hits, but that all is nonsense when one wants it to be. He could also point out that Jose Lopez is rated above average in almost all defensive stats but that would not matter either so just one question please.
You made a nice case that clutch hitting does not exist but you are trying to make a case that unclutch fielding (by Jose) does exist. Is this magic or do you have saber proof?
May 16th, 2008 at 11:14 am Quote
What I see in Jose Lopez is a very talented and YOUNG player.
The kind of spurts of excellent production that have sent him to the all star game at a very young age show the innate talent he has.
I tend to agree with one of the posters above who is getting Carlos Guillen feelings from Jose. Although Guillen had I think a more tenacious approach at the plate, more of a never give up attitude. He got a lot of flack for being injured a lot, but what I saw was a dude who was tough, he played through a lot of that stuff… didn’t he play for a couple weeks with TB?
Anyway, Lopez has the innate skill and power potential, in my estimation the ‘empty’ .300 BA will fill up some before he turns 28.
May 16th, 2008 at 11:36 am Quote
Hi, GL.
Mr. Baseball is not buying the “empty 300″ piece. Currently, among all AL secondsackers Jose is:
2nd in BA
1st in RBI’s
2nd in hits
4th in runs scored
This despite spending most of the year hitting second thus moving runners along, bunting, etc.
If others were doing as well in comparison to their peers the M’s would not be in last place.
May 16th, 2008 at 11:58 am Quote
#103
While I agree that JOH is likely part of the problem. I just can’t see crediting him for a full 100 OPS swing. The flipside of that is that you have to assume that our pitching/defense’s true talent level lies in the 700 OPS range or below. Clearly thats not the case.
Our pitching is above-average, but our defense is probably below-average. We’ve had very poor defenders in the corner OF positions the last few years, and we are weak in the infield asides from Beltre. Betancourt and Lopez have both regressed defensively. They came in chubby this season, and its affected their range.
May 16th, 2008 at 11:59 am Quote
Baker also notes that his .424 SLG is tops among AL 2B.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:07 pm Quote
In all fairness to Lopez - *at the moment* - he ranks 5th in the AL among 2Bs in OPS. That ain’t bad. And OPS is a much stronger stat to argue with than Runs, Hits or RBI.
Runs and RBI are *TEAM* generated stats - and lineup placement stats. You stick anyone with a .300 OBP in front of the right couple of guys they WILL score lots of runs. If you stick a guy with a .300 average BEHIND the right couple of guys, he WILL get 100 RBI.
Moreover, the stats of BA and Hits are just two different ways of looking at the same ability. A .300 hitter with no walks WILL have more hits than a .300 hitter with 20 walks. The math guarantees it. But the .300 hitter with 20 walks is making fewer outs.
The truth of the matter is the OFFENSIVELY Lopez is a decent AL 2B - amongst a class of generally awful 2Bs. But, he’s 11th in OPS among all ML 2Bs. That’s top half, and bordering top third. It would be grand to have an Utley or Uggla or even a Kelly Johnson - but what he is today isn’t actually that bad for a middle infielder.
Defensively, he ranks next-to-last in ZR among AL 2Bs. 10th of 12 in fielding percentage. He’s only 8th in RF among the 12 AL qualifiers. By every basic fielding metric he is BELOW average this season.
==========
On the separate topic of “selective use of statistics”, my view is one of consistency. Do you use X measure to judge *ALL* hitters - or do you change stats routinely. By and large, I like OPS — and second to the RC/27 (the one that includes SBs).
Of course, some lineup positions are largely defined by stats that fail in ‘general’ usage. Judging leadoff hitters by OBP and Runs scored isn’t completely unreasonable. Judging MOO hitters by slugging and RBI isn’t completely unreasonable.
But, it is *NOT* reasonable for one to claim Chipper Jones is simply not having that great a season because he is only 19th in runs scored. THAT is cherry-picking a stat to try and frame a pre-conceived conclusion.
Is Josh Hamilton having a better season (45 RBI - but .886 OPS) than Chipper Jones, (1185 OPS, but only 32-RBI)?
Me? I’m not aware of Matt altering his “general” approach to judging hitters with Lopez. And his comments on his defense have largely been stated as based on observation rather than analysis.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:28 pm Quote
At what point in history did OBP become THE stat to end all stats? Mr. Baseball remembers telling little leaguers that a walk was as good as a hit but he never actually believed it.
As for runs scored and rbi’s being “team stats” so what? Baseball is a team game.Getting runners home has been/is a long-standing problem for the M’s. Empty walks don’t get it done.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:44 pm Quote
OK, Mr. B, Matty, could you two please ignore each other from here out. Mr. B threw his sand wedge, Matt ducked and put some metal tees under Mr. B’s tires, and now we’re even.
How about debating Lopez with attention on JLo rather than each other? :winning smile:
Dr. D is with Mr. B as to Lopez’ talent … the ’slams’ on JLo aren’t materially swinging the debate either way, that Dr. D can see…
A *lot* of Latin free-swingers have low OBP’s, including those on the All-Star team and in the HOF … for Jose to take his rightful place as a star, he’ll need to start driving the ball for HR’s and doubles… prediction here is, he will, soon enough…
May 16th, 2008 at 12:47 pm Quote
Right. 100 OPS is so radical that some minority fraction of it has got to be due to noise.
But with the rock-hard 100 OPS difference *in results since he arrived* … actually more like 120 since the starter has advantages … I’m thinking 60+ points go to Johjima. (Actually to the CIRCUMSTANCES surrounding Johjima.)
And those 50, 75, 90 points, whatever …. I’ve got a sick feeling that right now they are the bitter wormwood driving the snake-bit syndrome…
…………………..
Once again, I can easily see Jason Varitek going to Hanshin and being the victim of a similar catastrophe. It wouldn’t diminish Varitek an iota in my eyes, if it occurred.
May 16th, 2008 at 12:51 pm Quote
On the TV the other day, they said that Lopez had 20 “productive outs” :- P moving runners along … and that the #2 hitter in the AL had 13.
JLo is standing there under instructions to fungo the ball to the right side. He’s doing it, at will, better than any other AL West player could, other than Ichiro.
I’m quite surprised that this awesome show of righthanded Carew-age is not weighing more heavily on fans’ evaluation of Lopez’ talent. I’m not sure I’ve seen a hitter who was better at this revolting task of hitting the pitch the other way into a sacrifice fly/GB “unselfish” out.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:04 pm Quote
Sandy,
“By every basic fielding metric he is BELOW average this season.”
But why use basic fielding metrics when we have better data? Here’s The Hardball Times rank according to RZR, a better measure than ZR because it’s based on play-by-play data and because the data are adjusted due to balls-in-play type (missing a LD in a zone counts less than missing a GB). Lopez is safely in the top half, near the top 3rd. He’s better this year than last, and his 2007 was better than his 2006.
I think he’s close to average, but these data (along with the UZR data) consistently show a guy around 2-3-5 runs or so better than average. Could that be 2-3 runs below? Eh, sure, probably, but I think we’ve got the range pretty well triangulated.
Betancourt, on the other hand, really seems to be trending downwards.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:08 pm Quote
OBP became popular when Mr. Bill James began demonstrating long-standing historical linkages between high OBP and run scoring.
Despite what many people believe OBP doesn’t measure walking. What it actually measures is how often you generate OUTS. The question that wasn’t being asked (and remains drowned in the background noise today) is how often does a player make an OUT.
If Jose Walk-rate makes an out 65% of the time (OBP = .350) he goes to the plate, that’s a 65% “failure” rate.
If Jose Slap-hitter makes an out 70% of the time (OBP = .300), that’s a 70% “failure” rate. Over a 600 plate appearance season, that’s 30 extra plate appearances for SOMEONE.
And today OPS (not OBP) is the “prime” generally available stat that is #1 on most hit parades, (if you’ll pardon the pun). That’s because it captures power as well.
Yes - baseball is a team game — but two players could hit exactly the same hits, (single, double, HR), for an entire season - in the exact same order - in the exact same innings - against the exact same pitchers — yet, their RBI totals could STILL BE significantly different, based on who was hitting ahead of them.
Pedro Feliz didn’t jump from 81 to 98 RBI in ‘05/’06 because he was suddenly a better hitter. That jump in RBI was *SOLELY* a result of batting behind Barry Bonds in ‘06, whereas Barry missed almost all of 2005 due to injury. In point of fact, the bulk of those 17 extra RBI can be explained in one area:
2006 - bases loaded - 26-PAs - 23-RBI
2005 - bases loaded - 15-PAs - 11-RBI
11 extra CHANCES with the bases loaded created 11 extra RBI.
Am I supposed to believe that Pedro Felix ‘05 was a waste of a 3B slot because he got 81 RBI in 156 games, but he was a solid contributor in ‘06 because he got 98?
His stat lines for those two seasons were:
2005 - .250/.295/.422 (OPS+ 85) - 81 RBI
2006 - .244/.281/.428 (OPS+ 79) - 98 RBI
Me? I look at the .717 and .709 OPS figures and conclude that he stunk in both seasons. By RC/27, he created 3.9 and 3.8 runs per 27 outs those two seasons, (’05 actually being the nominally better season).
If YOU want to laud Pedro Feliz for his ability to drive in runs in 2006, feel free. Me? I’m not going to pretend that Pedro Feliz was somehow responsible for Barry Bonds’ .454 OBP (other than perhaps the reality that the opposition realized he stunk so much that they walked Barry more times than they might have otherwise).
May 16th, 2008 at 1:22 pm Quote
Mr. Baseball wrote:
When have i EVER made the case that clutch hitting doesn’t exist? I use the CLUTCH METRIC that fangraphs has made available to MEASURE clutch hitting.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:24 pm Quote
#118
Marc, simply put - I don’t fully trust *ANY* defensive measure at this point. I’ve looked at UZR and defensive this and defensive that - and by and large I simply see too many disconnects in too many areas to trust any one DEFENSIVE stat at this point.
This is why when I post defensive judgements, I typically throw several stats at the ceiling to see what sticks.
In short - I am FAR from convinced that UZR, (et al) are, in fact, “better”.
This doesn’t mean I fully trust the metrics I use. Defensive judgement today is a quagmire of suppositions. My biggest problem is that as the metrics get more and more complex, the ’system’ seems to overwhelm the raw data too often (at least for my taste).
I’ve seen the processes where you start with raw data - knowing that certain variables need to be taken into account that are ‘likely’ skewing the data — so you adjust for X, then Y, then Z, then P D and Q. Pretty soon, the system is so chock full of ‘adjustments’, that conclusions can appear that are so vastly distant from the raw data AND direct observation that you just have to blink.
The more complex the system, the more likely that “unintended consequences” can creep into the mix.
Take park effects. I believe that park effects are generally overstated. I also believe that because of the methodology used for park effects, that personnel decisions and team makeup can (and often do), have skewing effects on the outcome.
Mind you, I still use OPS+ (which includes park effect adjustments), because I think ‘on the whole’ OPS+ probably gets slightly closer to the truth than raw OPS in the majority of cases. It also doesn’t typically subsume the basic stat - just tweaks it a bit.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:25 pm Quote
Mr. Baseball wrote:
I see Mr. Baseball has learned absolutely NOTHING about the problems with using R and RBI (and hits BTW) to the exclusion of more complete data.
It’s a shame when someone is so utterly closed minded that they can’t pick up new information because they don’t like the person delivering the message.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:27 pm Quote
DrDetecto wrote:
Well Doc…since I wasn’t tlaking to Mr. Baseball before he showed up here and made things personal for no reaosn at all, I’m gonna say NO, I won’t simply ignore him.
That was tried at MarinerCentral…the problem with telling the VICTIM to ignore the BULLY is that everyone else in the room gets the message “the bully is right.” I won’t ignore the bully. Sorry Doc. Mr. Baseball sets a tone that makes it OK for other people to be snide and disrespectful…especially to me personally. I saw it happen at MarinerCentral because CrewChief was incapable of recognizing the pattern of abuse. I won’t see it happen here.
May 16th, 2008 at 1:47 pm Quote
Let me be clear, blunt and complete here.
a) Jose Lopez is a very talented player. Never have I said otherwise. Of course, D’Angelo Jimenez was/is a very talented baseball player too.
b) Jose Lopez isn’t “raw”…he’s got a lot of big league experience now and is thus far showing no real outward signs that he’s willing or able to learn new skills to make use of his raw talent with the possible except of his increased FB% this year…a lot of deep flyouts may eventually turn into more HRs and 2Bs, which would help.
c) As it stands right this moment, Jose Lopez is not a very productive hitter. He’s 6th on the team in win probability added despite the team being terrible offensively to date. His OPS+ is roughly league average. Yes he’s near the top of the league in contact percentage, hits and the like…but that’s ALL he’s doing…he’s hitting a very empty, very limited .310. He doesn’t get on base, he doesn’t hit for power (yet).
d) CLutch hitting DOES INDEED exist…clutch hitTERS (notice the different word ending Mr. Baseball…you may have missed it given your spotty record in reading comprehension the last time) are rare and their influence is relatively small. What I mean by that is that we can’t consistently rely on someone to be a clutch hitter simply because he produced a lot of clutch wins in his most recent season…that generally, players like Ichiro are the model for consistent clutch excellence and that the magnitude of permanent clutch skill is on the order of half a win per year…not multiple wins.
e) Jose Lopez has not manifested any permanent clutch hitting skill. Nor has he manifested significant anti-clutchness.
f) Lopez’ defense is debatable in the absolute sense. Some of the UZR-type metrics say he’s helping the club overall, some of the more basic stats say he’s hurting the club, and my (admittedly untrustworthy) personal observations on Lopez say he’s been good EXCEPT when we’ve needed him to be good. I see panic in his eyes when he goes to make the play in critical moments.
g) I probably overreact to his most painful miscues…it’s been a very emotionally trying month, with the Ms on paper being a solid club but the team on the field playing horribly. I do not see how a case can be made, however, that Lopez is playing particularly well right now even if we grant that he’s been slightly above average as RZR claims (BTW, I don’t trust RZR…there’ve been a lot of very odd looking results, especially from the Mariners in the hardball times data…last year, every single Mariner had huge OOZ scores for their positions and were still rated as overall being terrible…I think there are home-team scoring biases at work…I think the Safeco Field PBP guy has some rather extreme biases that are messing with the results).
h) I’m not the one who made things personal between Mr. Baseball and myself. He set the tone long ago with comments like “don’t mind SABR Matt…he’s useless in a baseball discussion when it doesn’t include trig functions or algebra.” You can get away with a lot when talking to me, but don’t try to pigeon-hole me when you don’t even know me and don’t dismiss me in an argument with a personal attack. Act like an adult…that includes arguing like one.
May 16th, 2008 at 2:30 pm Quote
Doc, sometimes the comments don’t take and have to be redone. Happened twice today.
Okay, Mr. Baseball will take the wrist slap and do as you wish. We go back aways and this is your site afterall.
Mr. Baseball had not seen the stat on productive outs you listed but he is not surprised given the job Jose was doing in the two spot. Also, he has missed several games but it appears the amount of doubles has risen fairly dramatically since Jose was moved to #5.
Note to Sandy. Mr. Baseball is a bit red-faced because he mis-understood how OBP was calculated. So, thanks. That said, a frustrating thing is when a team leaves a man on third with less than two out. Jose seldom does that yet the anti Jose crowd seems to give no weight to things like that at all. Since scoring runs wins games, this seems to have significance with or without the wisdom of Guru James.
May 16th, 2008 at 2:42 pm Quote
Ran across this and since you are exploring the topic. This doesn’t directly deal with BABIP but might indirectly.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/4/5/389840/framing-the-debate
May 16th, 2008 at 3:19 pm Quote
SABRMatt wrote:
If I might have a point of personal privilege here Doc. Our sites have been on very friendly terms and I want things to remain that way.
Since my name is being thrown around here I think I’d like to clear something up. Matt is telling one side of the story. He was admonished for name calling and other behavior which did not meet our board guidelines. So were those who were baiting him. He chose to ignore that he wasn’t the only one who was warned and continued to rail, both in posts and PMs to me. I suggested he was about to lose his privileges on our site if he didn’t follow the guidelines. Others received the same warning. His choice was to stop posting. Now he’s choosing to distort the record here.
With the down turn in the Mariners fortunes this season there has been an ugly turn to posting on many sites, ours included. It is too bad the frustration of following an under performing team shows up in this way. Keeping a message board on an even keel can be challenging even in good times.
Like everyone else, Matt is welcome at MC. He has good content to provide. What is not welcome, by him or anyone else, is behavior that violates our board guidelines.
May 16th, 2008 at 3:20 pm Quote
You set the tone, Matt. You have the floor.
You can’t blame Mr. B for setting a tone when all you had to do to defuse it was respond calmly, or not at all. Flying off the handle for 10 or 12 posts about some bully on your site doesn’t make your tone better. It makes those of us who would like to see barbs defused instead of exacerbated find someplace else to post.
As for the actual discussion…You and I are pretty close on our opinions of Jose, except that a) I agree his 2 muffs in critical situations cost us wins, but I don’t think they’re indicative of his need to be turned into glue and b) I still hold out hope that if he’s ever allowed to pull a ball again in his life his power might come back.
If they don’t change his approach, though, it won’t be here - and without power his sac fly skills are only useful if a guy is on 3rd. There’s only so much a .300 hitter with no walks or power can produce for a team, and Jose’s pretty maxed out on that production scale.
With Triunfel currently being an obnoxious teen, however, and still not manifesting any power of his own, there’s no one available to take 2nd base from Lopez.
Maybe that’ll change in the draft, but it’s his job for a while. I have to say though, I’m underwhelmed by the production - offensive and defensive - that I’ve been getting from our middle infielders. And it doesn’t look likely to change soon.
~G
May 16th, 2008 at 3:28 pm Quote
Crew Chief wrote:
If I might have a point of personal privilege here Doc. Our sites have been on very friendly terms and I want things to remain that way.
Since my name is being thrown around here I think I’d like to clear something up. Matt is telling one side of the story. He was admonished for name calling and other behavior which did not meet our board guidelines. So were those who were baiting him. He chose to ignore that he wasn’t the only one who was warned and continued to rail, both in posts and PMs to me. I suggested he was about to lose his privileges on our site if he didn’t follow the guidelines. Others received the same warning. His choice was to stop posting. Now he’s choosing to distort the record here.
With the down turn in the Mariners fortunes this season there has been an ugly turn to posting on many sites, ours included. It is too bad the frustration of following an under performing team shows up in this way. Keeping a message board on an even keel can be challenging even in good times.
Like everyone else, Matt is welcome at MC. He has good content to provide. What is not welcome, by him or anyone else, is behavior that violates our board guidelines.
Funny how the admonishments to me were done publicly…and I never saw any such public warnings to anyone else.
As it stands right now, the public at MC believes I’m the only person doing anything wrong. I don’t want to create negativity between DOV and MC…I am just trying to right the evident public consensus that I’m the only person creating tension.
May 16th, 2008 at 3:32 pm Quote
G_Money…I respond when someone talks to other people about how worthless I am. How crazy must I be? Yeah…I could have said nothing…and now, I wish I had said nothing. My instinctual reaction is to respond when someone acts the way Mr. B has. I’m sorry.
May 16th, 2008 at 4:14 pm Quote
Not meaning to slap anybody’s wrist amigo, least of all yours… just a friendly request to get back to the usual baseball programming :- )
By all means :- )
I hear what you’re saying about your own rulings w/r/t Matt & others on your own site. More power to you.
On D-O-V, 98% of Matt’s interchanges have worked out well (which is probably higher than mine, LOL). Silentpadna encouraged us to “sign” SABRMatt :- ) precisely for the reason that he offers a foil to me and others, discouraging ‘groupthink.’ It’s worked out pretty well, we’d like to think, so far.
………………
We’re not unaware that the personal interchanges bear a little watching… this thread is a case in point… as long as this thread is an exception rather than the rule, then … no harm no foul…
………………
D-O-V definitely will not be one of those sites where things ‘take an ugly turn.’ Anything up to and including nuking the site will occur before this becomes a place for sour personal exchanges.
I never delete posts or suppress thought for the sake of silencing dissent, but if necessary, we’ll start deleting and banning as needed to maintain a cheerful atmosphere. So, Russ, Jonezy, consider yourselves on notice, amigos … no more of your sourpussness ………. ………….
;- )
Half of my reason for blogging the M’s is the online friendships. The good-natured spirit here is a given, or will be as long as I visit, anyway … OK, we had our clubhouse meeting, no holds barred… back to the baseball, whattaya say :- )
But the self-policing seems to have been effective. Sounds like we are ready to write this one off as an aberration and go from here.
May 16th, 2008 at 4:46 pm Quote
SABRMatt wrote:
Not touching the rest of this with a 10′ pole but I will take the opportunity to say that offensively Lopez is doing exactly what the Mariners want him to. For the first time in his career. And he is being praised by the manager and broadcasters for it.
The M’s took a kid with a fast bat, impatient mindset and some pull power and spent three+ years drilling into his brain this “hit the other way-hit behind the runner-sac fly-bunt-”productive out” stuff. Congrats to the Mariners, I guess, because they finally got the hitter that they wanted Lopez to be all along. Just listen to Mac and Blowers if you doubt that. He’s now one of “the best two hole hitters in the league” according to every Mariner mouthpiece.
May 16th, 2008 at 4:58 pm Quote
Yes…the Mariners have indeed ruined Lopez’ upside potential to a certain extent by encouraging him to become unproductively aggressive and contact oriented.
Just as they’re trying to ruin their best pitchers by encouraging the pitch-to-contact philosophy.
May 16th, 2008 at 5:50 pm Quote
Mike wrote:
Nice read indeed. The author himself is astonished how Cs effect the strike/ball call of umpires.
Catcher Called Pitches SAA SAA / 150 Pitches Runs / 150 Pitches
Gregg Zaun 4518 159.70 5.30 0.85
Jeff Mathis 3430 93.43 4.09 0.66
Yadier Molina 3246 84.49 3.90 0.63
Russell Martin 7061 183.16 3.89 0.63
Yorvit Torrealba 2867 58.03 3.04 0.49
John Buck 3443 64.93 2.83 0.46
Brian McCann 5762 105.98 2.76 0.44
Javier Valentin 2013 36.79 2.74 0.44
Jose Molina 2313 41.28 2.68 0.43
Brian Schneider 2119 31.72 2.25 0.36
Ivan Rodriguez 3881 55.13 2.13 0.34
Brad Ausmus 2576 35.19 2.05 0.33
Johnny Estrada 3072 36.16 1.77 0.28
Carlos Ruiz 2471 11.22 0.68 0.11
Benji Molina 3909 14.06 0.54 0.09
Jorge Posada 2616 3.66 0.22 0.03
Paul LoDuca 2569 -0.54 -0.03 -0.01
A.J. Pierzynski 5932 -3.54 -0.09 -0.01
Victor Martinez 3233 -2.01 -0.09 -0.02
Josh Bard 5701 -15.68 -0.41 -0.07
Kurt Suzuki 4269 -15.75 -0.55 -0.09
Jason Varitek 3543 -14.90 -0.63 -0.10
Jason Kendall 5770 -25.32 -0.66 -0.11
Michael Barrett 2499 -15.86 -0.95 -0.15
Chris Snyder 3342 -23.19 -1.04 -0.17
Ronnie Paulino 2343 -16.87 -1.08 -0.17
Rob Bowen 2057 -26.90 -1.96 -0.32
Mike Napoli 3106 -45.14 -2.18 -0.35
Jamie Burke 2270 -35.07 -2.32 -0.37
Ramon Hernandez 2361 -39.56 -2.51 -0.40
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 2467 -41.63 -2.53 -0.41
Joe Mauer 2434 -44.36 -2.73 -0.44
Dioner Navarro 2436 -64.44 -3.97 -0.64
Kenji Johjima 7120 -201.11 -4.24 -0.68
Gerald Laird 6129 -317.09 -7.76 -1.25
So what have Jarrod Saltalamacchia Joe Mauer Dioner Navarro Kenji Johjima and Gerald Laird in common?
So the author thinks it is “framing” but are there other causes?
Unusual pitch calling (unusual to the Ump I mean) and “Gyakudama” comes in my mind.
(”Gyakudama” is a pitch where the catcher setup inside and the pitch goes on the black outside or vise versa. I myself have observed that the Ump call it a ball despite it was on the black.)
I think there are very interesing aera in baseball which the sabers don’t have a answer yet. It makes the question complicated because there is human interactions involved.
Human interactions between pitcher catcher umpire fielder etc.
May 16th, 2008 at 6:59 pm Quote
So…our visual observation that Johjima is messing up strike calls is accurate…but we don’t know why. Either our pitchers are so inaccurate that they are confusing the umps or Johjima’s pitch calling sequences include too many breaking balls (which umps tend to blow more often) or his framing is so bad that umpires aren’t giving us the close ones…
At least…those are the readily apparent theories.
May 16th, 2008 at 7:17 pm Quote
But they’ll say framing doesn’t matter. I’d like to see how true that is.
May 16th, 2008 at 8:18 pm Quote
SABRMatt wrote:
Just lost the whole post I typed when the site ate it. Come on Ice, help us out.
Bullet points:
1) The Ms have a very strange way of minimizing their returns on players instead of maximizing them
- Signing their pitcher-hated catcher on the edge of the catcher age-cliff to 3 more years and blocking their 1st round (#3) draft pick.
- Pidgeon-holing their 1st round (#5) pitcher with an explosive fastball as a bullpen guy thus far instead of allowing him to pitch, and signing 3 guys in their 30s to multi year contracts averaging 8-12 million per as rotational players. A vet bullpenner would have cost far less.
- Teaching their power-capable 2B to never hit for power and to only slap singles and hit sac flies.
- Trading pitchers who can strike out players for those that can’t.
- signing hitters who are terrible park and league fits to deals, only to run them into the ground and have to DFA them.
- Allowing all their vets to bottom out WITH the team instead of trading them for even one decent prospect before they hit bottom.
- teaching the pitching staff to get hit instead of to miss bats (and Batista is sure showing he knows how to let the opponents put wood on the ball tonight…)
And we’re still in last place, and looking for a way to dig ourselves out.
With our ability to minimize the contributions of our good players and maximize the playing time of our bad and fading players (see Baek in the bullpen still…) it’s hard to see us breaking the cycle.
But it definitely does seem to BE a cycle now.
2) Since it is a cycle, should we try now to trade all our vets for kids? They are bottoming out in value, so rather than selling high after the ‘03 season on Boone, Rude and company we would, 4 years later, be admitting that the Indians were right and we were wrong about how to go about this rebuilding thing. And if there’s one thing we as Mariners fans should know, mistakes were NEVER made by the front office. Can’t admit that.
Which leaves us wondering how this is likely to change, without the players themselves succeeding without the org’s help and for bad moves to come up smelling like roses, which they have not done yet.
3) The Ms preference for minimizing risk is instead creating higher risk and lower reward, in the same vein as Johjima’s potential problem of trying to only give up a single instead of going for the strikeout.
The Ms are succeeding at not relying on too many kids, at not losing the faces of the franchise, at pumping a large number of dollars into the team payroll. And yet they are failing on the field at every opportunity, because their team has no soul, no fire, and is built on sand instead of stone.
They’re being singled to death by their own philosophy, one that also has enough data to be judged wanting.
But that philosophy doesn’t seem likely to change - which makes it hard to believe that the results will either, short of some superhuman efforts from the players themselves.
4) Our players seem to have left their capes and colorful spandex in their other briefcases.
~G
May 16th, 2008 at 9:34 pm Quote
If Jose keeps doing what he is doing (which concerns Mr. Baseball since he has faded a couple of times) he will likely make the All Star team - again.
Why is the rest of the league so ignorant when all you anti-Jose gurus are so smart?
What really do you anti-Jose people expect this kid to do? He hits second, moves runners, leads the league in productive outs and SF’s leads all of BASEBALL in getting guys home from 3rd with less than two outs (just posted), moves to fifth and begins pumping doubles and adding to his rbi total.
What will make you happy?
May 16th, 2008 at 9:58 pm Quote
I’m gonna turn off Spam Monster or whatever the other filter is.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:05 pm Quote
IcebreakerX wrote:
I first started posting on baseball boards in 2000. Every year since then I’ve seen the topic of “framing” brought up. I’m sure it has been brought up whenever fans of baseball, especially those who have not umpired at a high level, ran out of other things to pick over.
I’ve umpired at the NCAA level. I’ve attended clinics by Jim Evans and other instructors of his MLB umpire training school. I’ve given clinics. I can tell you that framing may have an affect in kid ball. Maybe there are some umps in High School ball that fall for a catcher’s position or how he holds his glove. But I do not know an umpire who reached the upper levels of professional umpiring, including the college ranks, who took into account “framing” when calling balls and strikes. The ball, in flight, as it passes the batter and plate is where it is judged a ball or strike. If you wait until the ball is caught, you’ve missed the pitch. That’s the way it is taught. Believe me, you don’t get to the bigs, or even to where I ended my career, by being fooled by a catcher’s position or where he catches the ball.
But that’s just the opinion of an old umpire. The stat geeks might want some numbers. Ok. Here are a couple of references to start with.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-zone-of-their-own/
Johnathan Hale concludes “I used to think that an umpire’s zone was largely negotiated by the pitcher during the game and could differ greatly from one day to the next. Now I’m sure there are some very consistent tendencies that each umpire sticks to (although they may not come up in every game). The next step is to look at is which umps are the most consistent and if they are affected when dealing with particular situations, teams, or players.”
If umpires are consistent as Hale finds, framing technique by one catcher over another is not showing up. But I agree, there is more work to be done. So Dan Turkenkopf takes the next step. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/4/5/389840/framing-the-debate
He compares catchers in hopes of finding a correlation that he can attribute to “framing.” I hope I’m not misleading anyone with this quote from his conclusion, “…the results just seem too outlandish to be correct. Plus, there was only a weak correlation between these values and the team’s runs allowed per game (r=-.30 based on those catchers who caught for the same team all year). I find it hard to believe pitch framing can have this big an impact and not be more noticeable. I have the same concern about the results of Hale’s analysis of umpires - where the impact is nearly as big. Two other possibilities are that my run value number is wrong (likely, but I think it’s in the ballpark) or that there’s some underlying issue that affects both of our studies.”
He tries to find another “underlying issue” and comes up with this: “Long story short, younger pitchers appear to lose at least .6 runs per games to older pitchers based on umpires calls.” http://blog.stealingfirst.com/2008/04/10/grandpa-gets-all-the-calls/
I don’t know if anyone else but these two have done analysis of this sort on the www. It’s what I’ve found. From what I see, Turkenkopf is inconclusive and Hale’s study, IMHO, shows a consistency among umpires that would speak against framing.
So, until the stat folks can nail it down better than these two guys, I’m still not buying “framing.”
May 16th, 2008 at 10:09 pm Quote
Hey Ice, What’s up, I just posted an extensive comment on framing, including a couple of interesting studies of umpires and catchers. It’s not showing up and I’m getting the “Duplicate comment detected” error when I try and re-post it.
May 16th, 2008 at 10:11 pm Quote
Let’s try this again.
IcebreakerX wrote:
I first started posting on baseball boards in 2000. Every year since then I’ve seen the topic of “framing” brought up. I’m sure it has been brought up whenever fans of baseball, especially those who have not umpired at a high level, ran out of other things to pick over.
I’ve umpired at the NCAA level. I’ve attended clinics by Jim Evans and other instructors of his MLB umpire training school. I’ve given clinics. I can tell you that framing may have an affect in kid ball. Maybe there are some umps in High School ball that fall for a catcher’s position or how he holds his glove. But I do not know an umpire who reached the upper levels of professional umpiring, including the college ranks, who took into account “framing” when calling balls and strikes. The ball, in flight, as it passes the batter and plate is where it is judged a ball or strike. If you wait until the ball is caught, you’ve missed the pitch. That’s the way it is taught. Believe me, you don’t get to the bigs, or even to where I ended my career, by being fooled by a catcher’s position or where he catches the ball.
But that’s just the opinion of an old umpire. The stat geeks might want some numbers. Ok. Here are a couple of references to start with.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-zone-of-their-own/
Johnathan Hale concludes “I used to think that an umpire’s zone was largely negotiated by the pitcher during the game and could differ greatly from one day to the next. Now I’m sure there are some very consistent tendencies that each umpire sticks to (although they may not come up in every game). The next step is to look at is which umps are the most consistent and if they are affected when dealing with particular situations, teams, or players.”
If umpires are consistent as Hale finds, framing technique by one catcher over another is not showing up. But I agree, there is more work to be done. So Dan Turkenkopf takes the next step. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/4/5/389840/framing-the-debate
He compares catchers in hopes of finding a correlation that he can attribute to “framing.” I hope I’m not misleading anyone with this quote from his conclusion, “…the results just seem too outlandish to be correct. Plus, there was only a weak correlation between these values and the team’s runs allowed per game (r=-.30 based on those catchers who caught for the same team all year). I find it hard to believe pitch framing can have this big an impact and not be more noticeable. I have the same concern about the results of Hale’s analysis of umpires - where the impact is nearly as big. Two other possibilities are that my run value number is wrong (likely, but I think it’s in the ballpark) or that there’s some underlying issue that affects both of our studies.”
He tries to find another “underlying issue” and comes up with this: “Long story short, younger pitchers appear to lose at least .6 runs per games to older pitchers based on umpires calls.” http://blog.stealingfirst.com/2008/04/10/grandpa-gets-all-the-calls/
I don’t know if anyone else but these two have done analysis of this sort on the www. It’s what I’ve found. From what I see, Turkenkopf is inconclusive and Hale’s study, IMHO, shows a consistency among umpires that would speak against framing.
So, until the stat folks can nail it down better than these two guys, I’m still not buying “framing.”
May 16th, 2008 at 10:14 pm Quote
I first started posting on baseball boards in 2000. Every year since then I’ve seen the topic of “framing” brought up. I’m sure it has been brought up whenever fans of baseball, especially those who have not umpired at a high level, ran out of other things to pick over.
I’ve umpired at the NCAA level. I’ve attended clinics by Jim Evans and other instructors of his MLB umpire training school. I’ve given clinics. I can tell you that framing may have an affect in kid ball. Maybe there are some umps in High School ball that fall for a catcher’s position or how he holds his glove. But I do not know an umpire who reached the upper levels of professional umpiring, including the college ranks, who took into account “framing” when calling balls and strikes. The ball, in flight, as it passes the batter and plate is where it is judged a ball or strike. If you wait until the ball is caught, you’ve missed the pitch. That’s the way it is taught. Believe me, you don’t get to the bigs, or even to where I ended my career, by being fooled by a catcher’s position or where he catches the ball.
But that’s just the opinion of an old umpire. The stat geeks might want some numbers. Ok. Here are a couple of references to start with.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-zone-of-their-own/
Johnathan Hale concludes “I used to think that an umpire’s zone was largely negotiated by the pitcher during the game and could differ greatly from one day to the next. Now I’m sure there are some very consistent tendencies that each umpire sticks to (although they may not come up in every game). The next step is to look at is which umps are the most consistent and if they are affected when dealing with particular situations, teams, or players.”
If umpires are consistent as Hale finds, framing technique by one catcher over another is not showing up. But I agree, there is more work to be done. So Dan Turkenkopf takes the next step. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/4/5/389840/framing-the-debate
He compares catchers in hopes of finding a correlation that he can attribute to “framing.” I hope I’m not misleading anyone with this quote from his conclusion, “…the results just seem too outlandish to be correct. Plus, there was only a weak correlation between these values and the team’s runs allowed per game (r=-.30 based on those catchers who caught for the same team all year). I find it hard to believe pitch framing can have this big an impact and not be more noticeable. I have the same concern about the results of Hale’s analysis of umpires - where the impact is nearly as big. Two other possibilities are that my run value number is wrong (likely, but I think it’s in the ballpark) or that there’s some underlying issue that affects both of our studies.”
He tries to find another “underlying issue” and comes up with this: “Long story short, younger pitchers appear to lose at least .6 runs per games to older pitchers based on umpires calls.” http://blog.stealingfirst.com/2008/04/10/grandpa-gets-all-the-calls/
I don’t know if anyone else but these two have done analysis of this sort on the www. It’s what I’ve found. From what I see, Turkenkopf is inconclusive and Hale’s study, IMHO, shows a consistency among umpires that would speak against framing.
So, until the stat folks can nail it down better than these two guys, I’m still not buying “framing.”
May 16th, 2008 at 11:01 pm Quote
Sorry about the multiple posts.
May 17th, 2008 at 12:24 am Quote
If I weren’t so tired tonight, amigo, I’d post that as a front-page article… thanks mucho…
May 17th, 2008 at 5:35 am Quote
Don’t worry Doc, I got it.
May 17th, 2008 at 7:02 am Quote
There’s two front pagers in this last flurry. JOlder’s, of course, but G’s is a masterpiece as well.
May 17th, 2008 at 2:23 pm Quote
Thanks amigos …
If I continue to stay away, are you going to keep writing stuff like this? :- ) Deal or No Deal…
May 17th, 2008 at 6:42 pm Quote
Bedard starting.. Burke the catcher.. Johjima the DH..
the dude over on Bakers blogs points out a 8.18 ERA for Bedard with Joh catching.. 1.31 with Burke behind the dish..
Im at least glad to see the M’s realize their is an issue.. and are open to sticking Joh at DH as often as they have been..
May 18th, 2008 at 6:35 pm Quote
Regarding the above post made by NyMariner05
The babker blog is very misleading by pointing out a 8.18 era for bedard w/ joh and 1.31 with burke behind the plate.
First off, The very bad performance by bedard in his last start through no fault of joh’s is going to skew the era’s.
2nd early in the season you can expect some rust, before you are at 100%, its not alot, but that small gain in era will catch up to pad the era’s against joh even though its not really joh being the problem.
3rd thing you should note, which baker does say is that bedard was injured and you can expect those starts to not be as good since he is just comming off an injury. I think baker also said bedard was injured another time, but small problems. Not to sure on this one, since baker does not specify.
So for these three reasons i dont take the number of joh/bedard era 8.18 and burke/bedard era of 1.31 at face value.
Im not absolving joh of bad game calling if that is indead the case, but you cant frame joh w/ those numbers when they are not even close to the actual truth and does joh a horrible diservice.
I do belive that joh does indead need to make a correction but it is just an opinion at this point till i see a more substantial evidence to back that claim and till then i will say it is an opinion and not a fact and I believe some of the posters here need to realize that as well otherwise they will let that bias color thier perceptions and make false or inacurate conlusions.
Regarding JOh and framing pitches, I am definetly in the umps corner on this one thx to Jolderdude’s post which provides a good view of how much value or in this case little we need to put into “framing pitches”. I believe framing pitches does not really matter and if it does it is so small that it is not important enough to deserve as much merit as some posters or baseball fans opinion on the matter.
The one thing that does indead deserve a further look is the fact that umps are consistent w/ “their” strike zone and if joh has been taking advatnage of it or not or if joh sticking w/ the “rule book” strike zone is what could be effecting his “bad” game calling to a certain degree. Not all of it, but to a certain degree.
From all that i have read via many sources on the web, japanese baseball is very good w/ the “rulebook” strike zone, while MLB umps dont follow it 100% but instead they do call consistently thier version of a strike zone.
I think maybe joh’s bad game calling isnt really that joh is that bad at game calling but it could be due to joh not fully understanding the difference between perfect strike zone in japan and personal but consistent strike zone of mlb umps.
May 18th, 2008 at 7:07 pm Quote
Sorry for double post, but i didnt put a conclusion to my earlier post.
CONCLUSION: I think the culprit might be not bad game caling by joh per say. But joh is calling a bad game in regards to him sticking to a perfect strike zone which is what is used in japan while here in the us, umps have thier own version of a strike zone.
If we ran a analsyis of joh’s game calling to the different ump strike zones. I think we might see a healthy portion of why joh’s numbers are so high. I dont believe this is the sole culprit as to the problem joh is exhibiting but i do beleive it could make up for atleast 50% or more.
Another thing i would like to add is two other factors which can also contribute to “joh’s bad game calling” but is due to the above reason of different stirke zones.
If a pitcher gets called a ball on a strike, he has to pitch again, which will lead to the batter getting another oportunity to hit the ball. This is a very similar argument of why obp for batters is an important factor for runs, since an OUT is the most important thing is getting runs.
By that argument, i woudl say getting a ball on a strike has a detrimental effect. Not only becuase we got a ball on a strike which is bad but also becuase now the batter gets another opportunity in keeping the rally alive. This concept is very similar to the importance of an out concept that mr james wrote about and is featured in moneyball.
So I beileve that joh’s game calling is not bad but is an indirect symptom of him not understanding that mlb umps have different strikes zones.
johs game calling w/ negative impact due to umps personal strike zone—>means strikes are called balls, which is not good, but not as detrimental—->however this culprit has side effects which is very detrimental: it does lead to keeping the at bat alive, especially bad in a 3/2 situation, have to go to plan b since you already revealed your plan A and gives teh batter a hint as to what might be comming next since you F$%ked up, this could also lead you to play it safe since your riskier but more effective plan A has failed, which is to play it safe and go for a contact to pitch and hope for a ground out or a fly out. Also since the batter could guess that a low ball w/ movement is comming, they can better anticipate it and hit it at a higher rate of success, since this is the norm behavior pattern of most pitchers.
May 18th, 2008 at 7:25 pm Quote
Are saying umps in Japan are perfect with no variance?
I find that near impossible to believe. Japanese umps are human too, they are going to have individual zones just like MLB umps. Its not because guys decide their zone is different, humans see the same thing differently.
May 20th, 2008 at 10:42 am Quote
Lester’s comments after his no-hitter made me re-think the importance of a catcher.
He was positively gushing about Varitek. Yes, we know he’s team captain and has been lauded for his defense and leadership skills.
But it just drove home for me how in the pitcher-catcher relationship, there is a continuum of how well they can work together. Just like any partnership or working relationship.
You can have two very talented people working together, but if they’re not on the same page, or feel some animosity…. that’s not the ideal circumstance to get the best out of both people.
Kenji’s relationship with a couple of his pitchers seems to be on the low end of that continuum, where a couple of the pitchers just flat don’t like working with him. As argued above by others, it almost doesn’t matter what the talent level of Johjima is, if few pitchers don’t like to work with him, why beat your head against a wall?
I don’t think a pitcher wants to shake off a catcher. I think they want to see what’s thrown down, think, yeah that’s the way to do it, and boom. Throw with confidence and conviction.
If a pitcher gets a sign for a pitch he doesn’t want to throw, he’ll do one of two things, right? Shake him off, or say, OK, I’ll give it a try. If he gives it a try and it works, he’ll build some more trust for the catcher. If he gets burned enough times, he’ll start not trusting his catcher. That’s what’s happening with Joh IMHO, and I think that’s where the OPS+ differential comes from…. a pitcher not throwing with as much conviction; a pitcher whose rhythm is thrown a bit off because he’s not as in sync with his catcher.
The pitchers not feeling as comfortable with Joh could be a result of his pitch calling; or his framing; his interpersonal skills; or any combination thereof. To me it doesn’t matter which of these things is the cause, the results aren’t acceptable.
Clement could very well be the answer, hopefully we see him again soon.
May 20th, 2008 at 2:03 pm Quote
Given all of the “chemistry” debates going on, I wonder if Pitcher-Catcher is the one relationship where chemistry really matters?
May 20th, 2008 at 4:51 pm Quote
I’m annoyed at the Tigers’ announcers…they’re talking about Johjima’s bad CS% (19) and saying everyone has the green light against a bad thrower like Kenji…an example of how stats can be misleading. Johjima should have about 10 CS right now if not for Lopez and Betancourt being incompetent at catching his throws and THEN applying the tag rather than trying to do the reverse.
May 21st, 2008 at 5:20 pm Quote
Burke officially labeled Bedard’s personal catcher.
Does the Joh extension affect Bedard’s decision to sign an extension with Seattle?
May 21st, 2008 at 5:25 pm Quote
Aaaand the trend continues with Washburn giving up 9 ERs in 2+IPs.
Oh wait….you say Burke was catching? Well, that doesn’t change the fact that Washburn’s ERA with Burke behind the plate is still better than JO…oh wait its now WORSE?
Maybe now that Washburns lost another 2mph on his fastball he just plain sucks. Perhaps hes hes just terrible and it has nothing to do with Johjima.
May 21st, 2008 at 5:39 pm Quote
Sorry about the rediculous # of posts. I was having trouble getting a post through.
Don’t mean to be snarky, but I was getting tired of every blaming Johjima for 100% of the pitching/defense. I think we need to just accept the fact that we aren’t very good.
May 21st, 2008 at 5:42 pm Quote
Johjima is a big problem defensively, but he is clearly not the only problem.
Washburn has to go…sorry, but he’s smoke and mirrors when he has a good game…terrible when he doesn’t.
May 21st, 2008 at 6:03 pm Quote
Washburn has been Zito, just less consistent. : )
RRS & Morrow to the Rotation. Wash & Batista to the pen. Trade Baek for a shiny nickel.
Feel free to work Dickey in there somewhere too if ya like…
May 21st, 2008 at 6:51 pm Quote
Washburn traded for a B prospect
Batista to MR role
Baek DFA’d
Dickey to the rotation
Rowland-Smith or Morrow to the rotation
Huber called up for the pen.
That’s what I’d do.
May 21st, 2008 at 6:58 pm Quote
Looks like my muliple posts are in moderation…whats up with that?
May 21st, 2008 at 7:37 pm Quote
probably because you posted them back-to-back-to-back really fast…one of the spam filter checks is rapid-fire posting in a small period of time.
I’ll clear them.
May 21st, 2008 at 8:51 pm Quote
Baek is DFA’ed.
May 21st, 2008 at 11:28 pm Quote
This team is terrible.. I knew Washburn was gonna be a disaster this yr.. i remember arguing with a couple of you who were showing me statistical evidence he wasnt going to decline.. but my gut told me he was gonna be garbage.. and he’s been even worse than expected..
Heads gotta start rolling soon… I dont even blame McLaren at this point.. but he’s probably gotta get packing.. if for anything else then to just show the team that their lousy play just cost a nice man a job…
What a trainwreck.. I dont know what to do about Washburn.. he’s killing any trade value he had.. i guess we have to stick with him..
This Johjima thing is getting out of hand.. Burke has now become the designated catcher for 40% of the rotation.. although after this disaster tonight, i think Mac will say “screw you Washburn, Johjima is catching you”..
This is last year all over again, but without the crazy string of dominance by the bullpen and the odd knack to somehow win close games every day..
We thought we had gotten passed the days of having two disasters in the rotation.. but Washburn has been every bit as bad as HoRam.. and Batista is looking like Weaver..
Only way to salvage this thing.. is getting Brandon Morrow and RA Dickey in the rotation.. Batista to the bullpen.. Washburn? I have no idea what to do with him..
May 22nd, 2008 at 4:01 am Quote
Washburn can still be traded…we will have to eat some salary or accept a small return for him, but he still has value to some teams in desperate need of a lefty starter.
Batista just isn’t consistent enough for the rotation anymore…putting him in the pen minimizes the looks teams get on him and improves his chances.
Let Dickey and Morrow have a shot at the rotation now…that’s the only way we’re going to fix this rotation.
May 22nd, 2008 at 8:49 am Quote
There’s this guy Feierabend down at AAA who might deserve a 2nd look too.
I’ve never been a huge believer of his, but he’s absolutely killing AAA hitters. His problem has ALWAYS been limiting hits. He’s not a huge K pitcher, and he’s not really a control pitcher either (or at least hasn’t been - he can’t hit his spots, and so relies on the hitters not squaring up pitches on him. Easier to do in the minors.). You can’t make a living in the pros giving up the hit rate that Feier had done before this year, but he’s finally getting the hits under control - at least thus far.
If he can do that, he can be a decent BOR starter and another option for the Ms and their desperate search for someone to replace their multiple $8 mil/season mistakes.
Feier: 4-1, 2.15 ERA in 46 IP, 38 hits, 33K/10BB
Dickey: 2-5, 3.44 ERA in 49.2 IP, 58 hits, 30K/8BB.
Feier right now is Dickey with 20 less hits. Some of that is luck, and some of it is not. When a guy gives up 10+ hits in 4 straight games as Dickey just finished doing, then the kinks haven’t all been worked out yet.
But Wash and Batista have to take curtain calls as starters for the moment - we have some other folks who need to be put through their paces in this 5th straight rebuilding year.
We need a stable rotation that can be counted on not to blow up, a bullpen that doesn’t blow leads, and some hitters who don’t mash like castratos.
We had our best two ready hitters up (and I expect Clement to be back post-All-Star-Break at the latest), so now it’s time to try out the rotation.
Mid-season experimenting is so much fun. It doesn’t speak well of The Plan, though, to have to scrap it 6 weeks into every season…
~G
May 22nd, 2008 at 9:05 am Quote
Three hitters actually. Reed…I don’t believe in him, but we need to see whether or not he can survive…would also qualify
Washburn needs to get traded…that’s the bottom line.
May 22nd, 2008 at 10:30 am Quote
Looking at this lovely train-wreck, it becomes suddenly much much more important to sign Bedard to an extension. Imagine the state of our pitching staff without him. Sure, he’s been hurt at times, but the thing is - we absolutely need the piece of the puzzle that he represents. None of the ’spects we traded for him would have his impact on this team over the next couple of years going forward.
The Mariners “to do” list, as soon as they realize this season is toast, has to look like this:
- sign Bedard to an extension
- get Morrow stretched out for the rotation
- get Dickey extended looks (already happening)
- bring back Clement asap…let him play in a rotation with Kenji, not just DH
The first 3 are the most important parts of the puzzle…we can’t go into next season with question marks in the rotation, except for perhaps the very back end. Feierabend is another option…we need extended looks from our own pitchers to figure out who’s available to backfill the rotation.
If Bedard isn’t signed to an extension, we’re unfortunately looking at a lean next few years, I fear…
May 23rd, 2008 at 6:50 pm Quote
Bedard follows Washburn with 9ERs today with Burke catching.
Are we done blaming Johjima for the pitching/defense yet?
May 23rd, 2008 at 7:11 pm Quote
I do think its likely that Joh is part of the problem, but I don’t like addressing 100% of the blame to him. If you take Joh out of the equation you DEFINETLY aren’t going to have a 700 Opponent OPS, heck you aren’t going to have 780 OPS defense.
If Joh is even responsible for 10-20 OPS points than its a huge problem, but overall this looks like a below-average pitching/defense team, which is suprising to me…
Washburn/Batista have imploded, Silva is more of an 80 OPS+ type than league average (this one was more predictable), and the defense is flat-out bad in the middle infield, C (sorry Joh :-(), 1B and LF. Betancourt came in chubby and has diminished range to go along with his lack of focus, Lopez doesn’t have any range, I don’t care what the defensive stats say.
May 23rd, 2008 at 8:50 pm Quote
Bedard gave up 9 runs today and it’s all Johjima’s fault! Damn him!
May 23rd, 2008 at 10:29 pm Quote
Y’know taro, maybe it’s simply a psychological factor at work here..follow my thoughts for a minute..
Everyone on the pitching staff is uncomfortable with Kenji’s pitch calling, because it’s unfamiliar. Results aren’t what the pitchers focus on, especially not when they’re good. Instead, since they’re uncomfortable with the sequences and pitch calls, they blame Kenji when things turn sour. Basic psychological phenomena, happens to everyone on a daily basis. It’s the first step in dealing with a stressor: Denial.
At first nothing is said about it, but as time goes on (with Hargrove’s Vet Entitlement system in place) people are allowed to complain about their discomfort with Kenji’s sequences, more or less in public. This generates stress for the pitcher because he’s not confident in the approach. Results get worse, and even if those results are just an aberration, they happen enough that pitchers start to think there’s something to it. Mediocre pitcher plus poor confidence equals bad performance.
Backup catcher comes in (2006/2007), and the pitcher goes “Whew, thank heaven I don’t have to throw to Kenji today. This will be a relief.” Stress goes down, results get better simply because the pitcher is more relaxed, regardless of actual sequences thrown. Lower stress on the pitcher results in better performances, since psychology is such a big part of sports, especially baseball..at least when it comes to being in a zen-like state.
Everyone identifies this phenomenon, including geeky bloggers, and the team decides to act on the data by giving in to the pitchers complaints and letting them have the backup as a personal catcher for awhile. Stress goes back up, because now the pitchers are trying to justify the complaints they’ve made, and the arguments they’ve had about their results with Kenji behind the plate. Results get worse again.
I know, I know..it’s too simplistic and it’s likely not all-encompassing or even 50% accurate. But that’s part of what’s going on here, no doubt in my mind. I’m not even insinuating that the latest implosions with Burke behind the dish are caused solely by the hypothesis I’m presenting here. What I *AM* suggesting is that going forward, the pitchers aren’t going to get a sense of respite with the backup from now on.
Basically, I think it’s all on the pitchers and defense at this point. Kenji’s had a bad year throwing out baserunners, whereas he was elite last season. I don’t think he’s at either extreme, but it seems to me that all this whining by the pitchers is really messing with his confidence and preparation.
Suck it up, boys. You’re losing as a team here. It’s not all the foreign catcher’s fault.
June 11th, 2008 at 2:09 pm Quote
Found this interesting tidbit from Ken Rosenthal to add to the Kenji debate:
Food for thought.
June 11th, 2008 at 3:43 pm Quote
That IS an interesting tidbit.
June 11th, 2008 at 4:02 pm Quote
I wonder what JOlderdude will say about that. I know he’s called bull on the whole framing issue before but if the umps get it in their mind that the catcher is dissing them or showing them up, maybe there is something there.
June 11th, 2008 at 4:06 pm Quote
That’s not showing up the umpire.
June 11th, 2008 at 4:18 pm Quote
I don’t know. If the ump thinks - like that unnamed excutive does - that Joh is “umpiring”, then it might be seen as the equivalent of calling balls and strikes from the dugout. That’ll get a manager thrown out of any game. Immediately.
June 11th, 2008 at 5:00 pm Quote
This is the exact same “Kenji doesn’t frame pitches” issue we’ve been hearing about for a while, it’s just spelled out. All that quote means is that if he thinks the pitch is a ball he doesn’t sell it as a strike. In other words, he’s not trying to deceive the umpire. That isn’t going to tick off an ump if it were even noticed at all. The complaint is that he’s doing LESS than other catchers, not something worse.
June 11th, 2008 at 8:00 pm Quote
Yes, this has nothing to do with the umps.. Ive noticed it before, and it doesnt happen all that frequently in the game.. but at times ive seen pitches that look like borderline strikes, and instead of “framing” the pitch, Joh receives it as if it’s just a ball.. doesnt frame it.. basically, just stabs at it, and tosses it back to the pitcher..
Off topic.. but anyone gonna give a nice breakdown of what is more alarming regarding Joh.. his absolute pathetic season offensively?
June 12th, 2008 at 2:06 am Quote
part of the problem is that the infielders are playing him WAY to pull now…after two years of groundouts to third, they’re guarding the line and playing the SS deep in the hole…that’s why his BABIP is lower than it should be.
June 12th, 2008 at 2:20 am Quote
Sounds very plausible.
Not so as to warrant a .235 BABIP, but… a situation like that might produce a .265 BABIP for a RH catcher …
June 12th, 2008 at 5:23 am Quote
Yeah…not saying he will continue to have that .235 BABIP…but he’s a one-dimensional line drive/groundball dead-pull hitter, he’s slow, and he doesn’t have enough power for a high LD%. Offensively, he’s booked and IMHO, he’s unlikely to ever figure out a way around it.
June 17th, 2008 at 6:46 pm Quote
Seems like I saw McLaren say that Clement will be *behind the plate* 60% of the time, or more.
Did I miss something, or does this mean that Johjima-san will not be catching much?
Somebody count down that DER tendency for us…
June 17th, 2008 at 7:16 pm Quote
Lets hope the OPS+ against doesn’t follow Kenji to 1st. The way he frames those put-outs….
June 17th, 2008 at 7:27 pm Quote
#187: Got a great laugh out of that post. Good one
Images of Yuni and Lopez and Beltre going to the media complaining about their performance because Kenji’s not stretching enough at 1B. Hilarious imagery.
Like De Niro said as Capone “We laugh because it’s funny, and we laugh because it’s true.”
June 17th, 2008 at 7:30 pm Quote
Heh!
Niehaus on TV just sez, “Kenji has been told” that Clement will see “a lot” of time behind the plate…
June 17th, 2008 at 7:36 pm Quote
Here’s hoping, for everyone’s sake, that it’s not another empty promise. Clement needs to be behind the plate, especially since it appears that Kenji is a certifiable liability at the position defensively.
Never mind the fact that we’ve got a potential franchise player on our hands who could OPS .850 as a 120 game catcher…
June 18th, 2008 at 12:30 pm Quote
BTW, here’s closure on the question of why did they re-sign Johjima.
Johjima’s agent went and asked for an extension, and Yamauchi-san directed his employees to give him an extension.
……………
Mystery here is why this was not understood more clearly. Baker-san says that the first question he gets asked in every AL city is, “what were the Mariners thinking?”
Even baseball insiders seem to have totally missed the point that Art Thiel made crystal clear in his book. “On Japanese players, you come to me first!”
There’s no need to have a fresh round of debate as to the merits of every Japanese contract. Those are simply conditions under which the ballclub operates, like the fact that they play in Seattle and not Chicago.
……………..
Yamauchi bought the Mariners as a gift to the city of Seattle. His main return seems to be that he gets to watch a couple of his countrymen play for an MLB team. Hard to begrudge him that.
Unfortunate timing, of course.
June 18th, 2008 at 12:44 pm Quote
Doc said,
I see the sentiment, but it is also exactly what you say is wrong with the Mariners organization. When the owner, CEO, and president each get to have their pet players it completely hamstrings flexibility and undermines credibility. If the players think Kenji starts because Yamuchi dictates it and Raul can take his walker out to LF because Armstrong/Lincoln insist he is the face of the franchise, don’t you loose all credibility with your players? I mean, your best young bat since Jose Cruz should have been the everyday catcher starting right around when Kenji signed. And Vidro’s not so surprising poor performance and Reed’s success in Tacoma clearly cried out for at least trying Reed in LF, Raul at DH, and Vidro as top bench bat. When you are getting very little for C, 1B, LF defense, and RF, AND your best position performers in AAA play C, LF/CF, and RF, how do you end up where the M’s have been for the last 6 weeks!?!
The M’s problems start with Yamauchi, since he employs Lincoln and Armstrong.
June 18th, 2008 at 12:53 pm Quote
No. Question.
James pointed out, back in the 1980’s, speaking as a historian …. teams that win the World Series have an overwhelming sense that their front offices are in it to win it.
That the front office is laser-focused on the same thing the players are.
The Mariners have *never* gotten anybody to buy into their front office’s mission. …back when Gillick was in charge, it was better, but that was short-lived.
A confused message from the top is, IMHO, the deepest root cause of the trouble here. Yet, we’re right back at square one: Chuck and Lee will spend the rest of the year planning the 40-man.
June 18th, 2008 at 1:18 pm Quote
Personally, I think Yamauchi is a disgusting racist if this is true. His Japanese player asks for a contract and he simply says “yes sir…sign him!” Whether or not it makes sense.
That’s DISGUSTING. Japanese players getting special treatment simply because they’re Japanese…why would you tolerate that, Doc?
June 18th, 2008 at 2:34 pm Quote
Keep in mind that he probably didn’t specify any contract parameters. Just like he didn’t say what Ichiro’s post would be. It’s a “the boss would really like it if you kept this guy around” kind of thing. And, given what happened with Silva, Bavasi appears to really like spending those blank checks.
This kind of thing is actually fairly common. Plenty of major league teams have to deal with owners that step in and make their desires known on one or two guys. Heck, Steinbrenner would outright sign players without Cashman’s knowledge. I doubt that’s what happened here.
June 18th, 2008 at 2:36 pm Quote
:- )
That’s a long conversation …. I think you’d admit you oversimplified Yamauchi-san’s attitude towards Johjima, though. 1) Johjima has been a model employee. 2) Johjima had been a quality player for the franchise, and Clement’s contribution was somewhat problematic.
You know and I know that a hair-fine feel for the game made things clear. But Yamauchi doesn’t have a hair-fine feel for baseball, any more than you and I have one for soccer…
Granted, this indicates that it’s dangerous for an owner to meddle. But let’s remember that the Mariners wouldn’t be in Seattle if not for Yamauchi.
…………….
Nationalism isn’t as black-and-white-ly evil as we sometimes make it out to be. Do you root for the U.S. Olympic team?
If I owned Man U, and I could get Freddy Adu into the lineup, that would be cool and I’d consider it a fairly minor part of my prerogative considering the $1BB I’d spent. Not saying I’d do it, but I’d slow down about calling it disgusting, evil, etc.
……………
That said, the old-school Japanese tend to be racist, yes. Their culture has strengths and weaknesses. But at the same time, let’s not underestimate our own subconscious racist tendencies…
June 18th, 2008 at 2:51 pm Quote
Maybe he does. You see, he realized that this Clement kid has a slider speed bat and is merely beating up on soft tossing lefties down in AAA because all of the good pitchers have already been promoted. Now the M’s are going to showcase him a little and ship him off at peak value. If GM’s wonder why the M’s are trading Clement, the FO can now say “Well, we’re stuck with Johjima. We like Clement as a DH but we think we can get more value out of him trading him as a catcher.” Yamauchi is brilliant!
June 18th, 2008 at 3:03 pm Quote
HEH!!
June 18th, 2008 at 3:20 pm Quote
Don’t want to put my name on this one , but a friend of mine is very high in the Mariner/Nintendo corporate ladder. According to that person, Johjima’s agent went to Bavasi and Lincoln, and he was signed under the assumption that Yamauchi wanted all Japanese players signed. Very little negotiation or discussion over whether he fit the M’s future plan. Word then came back from Japan that Yamauchi was NOT happy about the extension (and extremely unhappy about the reasoning). This was one of the main reasons Bavasi was let go during the year instead of after. This person also let me know they were planning on lettng go of Bavasi ~10 days before it happened.
Take this with as many grains of salt as you wish, I know I would If I was in your shoes…
June 18th, 2008 at 3:35 pm Quote
Anon, aren’t the Mariner’s and Nintendo two different organizations? Which one specifically is your friend apart of?
June 18th, 2008 at 3:53 pm Quote
Am glad you posted Anon. Thanks for sharing.
To us that’s a rumor, but still, interesting.
One puzzle that does crop up there — the Johjima negotiations took a period of months, or so we heard. Not sure how that jibes with your friend’s impression that there was little or no discussion. Usually such contracts are major projects.
Another oddity: in your friend’s “please Yamauchi without asking” version, the new contract would be more Lincoln’s baby than Bavasi’s. A little dubious to me how that would get Bavasi in hot water. I mean, it could, if Bavasi pressed for it hard enough that Yamauchi heard about it as being Bavasi’s baby all the way upstairs, or if Lincoln did some shady blame-the-underling in his talks with the boss. That seems weird.
……………
But, if your friend’s version be the case, then presumably Yamauchi-san would have nothing against a friendly mutual agreement to trade Johjima.
June 18th, 2008 at 6:08 pm Quote
Quite interesting comment by Anon.
First I thought of the off-season moves this year that it was a win now move.
A win now move to make a honorable exit of Lincoln as Chairman & CEO M’s and “promote” him to Chairman Emeritus.
Now with his conformation to press that the contract was a Mr.Y, Lincoln and Armstrong matter brings criticism direct to Mr.Y which Mr.Y never appreciate.
I must see how it will develop but if the conformation to the press angers Mr.Y I see days of Lincoln as M’s CEO numbered and he may exit without honor position.
June 18th, 2008 at 6:57 pm Quote
Sorry Doc…but the whole “do you root for team USA” thing is a bad argument and you should know better. There’s a big difference between rooting passively for the good guys under the American flag and owning a team and actively favoring your nationality. I have no probblem with national pride…I have a *BIG* problem with favoritism based on race.
June 18th, 2008 at 11:32 pm Quote
#201
Several Responses:
1. I wouldn’t take it as much more than a rumor if I were you either. No offense taken.
2. Not sure about the length of the discussion, maybe a miscommunication, maybe kept from Yamauchi that whole time, maybe they lied, dunno.
3. My friend is not complementary to Lincoln and I will leave it at that.
June 18th, 2008 at 11:35 pm Quote
#204
Your post gets promoted to considerably more than ‘rumor’ with Dr. Naka deeming it of likely substance. :- )
I’d call it back-channel buzz at this point. LOL.
Thanks for passing the info along.
June 28th, 2008 at 12:53 pm Quote
bump
July 5th, 2008 at 10:03 pm Quote
Riggleman 10-5 as M’s manager.
Other catchers: 10 starts, M’s record 7-3.
Johjima catching: 5 starts, M’s record 3-2.
The sea change that led to the 10-5 overall may itself be lifting Joh’s W/L along with it?
July 5th, 2008 at 10:28 pm Quote
In fairness to Johjima, that 3-2 record should have been 4-1 if not for the breakdown of Batista (BS). And the other loss was to Halladay. Also, Joh caught the only shutout win by Dickey in that stretch. Runs-against in games caught by Joh: 5 (2 counted against Batista), 0, 2, 2, 2.
July 5th, 2008 at 10:37 pm Quote
Good ‘put.
Still leaves the question of whether the club ‘perked up’ with the C switch, and its revived interest carried over to the Joh games…
July 5th, 2008 at 10:55 pm Quote
I would argue that the defense got better the instant Johjima took a seat on the pine.
Even when he catches now…the defense is better…perhaps a feel-good hangover.
July 6th, 2008 at 7:55 pm Quote
The defense on July 6th with Johjima at backstop was outstanding.
Something had been changed with the manager change.
Defense is a team thing. Defense drills and positioning of the infield maybe the answer to lower team DER.
To many people think if they find data to a individual (here Johjima) that he is the cause. But in many cases the real cause is hidden and it takes some time to correct it.
July 6th, 2008 at 8:01 pm Quote
I would be happy for many reasons if it turned out that the team defense issue was caused by the manager, not Joh. I’d also like to figure out exactly what it was, so we can identify and prevent it in the future.
July 6th, 2008 at 8:28 pm Quote
Cmon Doc, Matt,
Johjima gives up 5 runs in 4 games (1 run today), and somehow hes still to blame for the poor D pre-Riggleman?
I don’t buy it, theres evidence that Joh is a poor defender, but we’re almost certainly overstating his impact.
Frankly, its looks like Sandy and Naka-san were right when they said that the M’s D was due to poor positioning. They are MUCH crisper, and Reed has been a nice boost (another good call by Sandy).
July 6th, 2008 at 8:29 pm Quote
Cmon Doc, Matt,
Johjima gives up 5 runs in 4 games (1 run today), and somehow hes still to blame for the poor D pre-Riggleman?
I don’t buy it, theres evidence that Joh is a poor defender, but we’re almost certainly overstating his impact.
Frankly, its looks like Sandy and Naka-san were right when they said that the M’s D was due to poor positioning. They are MUCH crisper, and Reed has been a nice boost (another good call by Sandy).
July 6th, 2008 at 8:29 pm Quote
Cmon Doc, Matt,
Johjima gives up 5 runs in 4 games (1 run today), and somehow hes still to blame for the poor D pre-Riggleman?
I don’t buy it, theres evidence that Joh is a poor defender, but we’re almost certainly overstating his impact.
Frankly, its looks like Sandy and Naka-san were right when they said that the M’s D was due to poor positioning. They are MUCH crisper, and Reed has been a nice boost (another good call by Sandy).
July 6th, 2008 at 8:34 pm Quote
Cmon Doc, Matt,
Johjima gives up 5 runs in 4 games (1 run today), and somehow hes still to blame for the poor D pre-Riggleman?
I don’t buy it, theres evidence that Joh is a poor defender, but we’re almost certainly overstating his impact.
Frankly,its looks like Sandy and Naka-san were right when they said that the M’s D was due to poor positioning. They are MUCH crisper, and Reed has been a nice boost (another good call by Sandy).
July 6th, 2008 at 8:35 pm Quote
Cmon Matt, Doc,
Johjima gives up 5 runs in 4 games (1 run today), and somehow hes still to blame for the poor D pre-Riggleman?
I don’t buy it, theres evidence that Joh is a poor defender, but we’re almost certainly overstating his impact.
Frankly, its looks like Sandy and Naka-san were right when they said that the M’s D was due to poor positioning. They are MUCH crisper, and Reed has been a nice boost (another good call by Sandy).
July 6th, 2008 at 8:44 pm Quote
Cmon Doc, Matt,
Johjima gives up 5 runs in 4 games (1 run today), and somehow hes still to blame for the poor D pre-Riggleman? Theres evidence that Joh is a poor defender (though still inconclusive), but we’re almost certainly overstating his impact.
Frankly, it looks like Sandy and Naka-san were right when they said that the M’s D was due to poor positioning. They are MUCH crisper, and Reed has been a nice boost (another good call by Sandy).
July 6th, 2008 at 9:19 pm Quote
There was also a nice CS by Johjima. Almost all of the past SBs against the M’s catchers can be attributed to poor positioning by the MIs, particularly JLopez.
July 6th, 2008 at 9:45 pm Quote
Lopez and Betancourt both stink at CS plays…that is definitely true. They both have an annoying habit of going for the tag before they catch the ball and dropping the thing.
Johjima is, objectively speaking, an above average thrower…or has been in the past.
And yes…today they played great defense with Johjima catching.
Reed/Bloomquist in CF and Ichiro in RF really helps. And a chunk of this turnaroudn may be Riggleman’s extra drills and focus on positioning in a pitcher-specific way. I still think when they re-signed Johjima it killed the team emotionally and resulted in the run at the cellar.
July 6th, 2008 at 11:57 pm Quote
1. Johjima’s results post-Riggleman are certainly a piece of evidence in his favor.
2. Again: I think that *objectively* Joh-san is a plus defensive catcher.
Could be, and I hope so.
But why would the positioning create those 100-OPS splits for Johjima 3 years in a row? The D-positioning didn’t hurt any of a variety of backup catchers.
Still, if Johjima’s OPS D-splits are flat from here on out, all’s well that ends well. Let’s see how they emerge.
July 7th, 2008 at 1:21 am Quote
The bigger key is that the defense collapsed more under McLaren than Hargrove. Under Hargrove, it was a passable bad, the type you’d get with Ibanez poorly imitating Manny Ramirez, bad right fielders in a big right field, etc. But the defense got cataclysmically bad under the 10 months of McLaren.
July 7th, 2008 at 4:49 am Quote
Regarding the defense … I read a quote somewhere, (sorry, don’t have the link), where Riggleman said that they were going to position based more on who was pitching - *LIKE ATLANTA*. If ever there was going to be support for my original position, er, about position — it would be the apparent and immediate improvement of the Ms defense in the brief Riggleman era.
As for Johjima? It’s entirely possible that the foundation problem was positioning, and that something about Johjima had a multiplying effect. If you correct the foundation problem, the multiplier ceases to be a major factor.
As noted many times previously, defense in baseball is perhaps the least understood aspect of the game, so almost all analysis, (even if supported by scads of numbers), ends up largely being speculation.
And a dozen games is not NEARLY enough of a data pool to draw any conclusions, even if initial signs seem positive.
July 7th, 2008 at 7:52 am Quote
So how was Mac positioning the defense if not according to who was pitching? That seems very bizarre to me.
July 7th, 2008 at 8:03 am Quote
It’s not as crazy as it might sound, Griz. A lot of teams emphasize positioning based on the situation, rather than the pitcher/hitter matchup. For example..
If you’ve got a runner on 1B and a lefty hitter at the plate, you might be inclined to have the SS cover the bag in the event of motion by the runner at 1B. This makes lots of sense, since generally speaking the lefty is going to try to pull the ball to RF, due to the 1B holding the runner on, creating a larger hole on the right side. Having the 2B cover the bag is ridiculously dangerous, since it makes a 70′ hole to the right side that pretty much anything can get through.
But if you’ve got Randy Johnson on the mound, why have the SS cover the bag? There’s no way a lefty is going to pull his FB to the right side, especially if he’s not pounding the inside with every pitch. There’s a good argument for having the 2B cover the bag in that situation, since the GB is more likely to go the other way.
It’s not a perfect example, but we’ve all seen how dogmatic people can be about these things (remember Fairly’s explanation of what a lefty hitter should do whenever a runner was on 1B?). I would guess strict dogma like that still runs baseball, especially a non-stats-driven part like defense.
Basically, there’s stock situational positioning and then there’s matchup specific positioning. I would guess we’re transitioning from the former to the latter? Someone correct me if I’m wrong.
July 7th, 2008 at 8:27 am Quote
#225 - nice summary
The key point in here is that there are a LOT of schools of thought about defensive positioning. There is precious little data to link up defensive philosophies and results.
*I*, just watching on TV and listening to the announcers, *CANNOT* know what the whole defensive philosophy is for Atlanta. But, I can say that during their long, long, long run, where the team had top-notch DER teams for most of a decade, DESPITE considerable turnover in many positions, that “basic” defensive lineups changed daily depending on who was pitching. ADDITIONALLY, there were defensive shifts from batter to batter during a game.
The basic ebb and flow is this — if I shift my defensive players when Joe Blow comes to the plate, (compared to the last batter), that can ‘tip’ the batter about what he can expect to see - basically it is hinting to the batter how he’ll be pitched. There is a realistic school of thought that this is bad.
But, under Mazzone, Atlanta had a VERY simplistic pitching approach. The concept was that execution was *FAR* more important than “deception”. It didn’t matter that Glavine, Mazzone, me, Tommy Lasorda and the entire Dodgers lineup knew that Glavine was going to be pounding the outside corner 80% of the time. If he is doing so effectively, (and the defense is positioned accordingly), the defense is going to win - deception-be-damned.
This is the basic framework I watched have incredible success for 15 years.
But, others believe that deception is the key to success — and deception IS a valid tool in the arsenal. Even Glavine didn’t throw EVERY pitch on the outside corner. You have to have the general strategy, the general defensive lineup, AND the rules for exceptions - (the Bonds shift, for instance).
And, of course, you need players capable of implementing your plan. If the plan is to position for pounding the lefty up and in - and the defense is positioned for that - and the catcher sets up for that — and the pitch is low and away — well, your plan is likely to backfire. That balance between blame/credit for the plan versus the player ain’t easy to set - and it ain’t easy to assess.
For decades it has been understood that you get great defensive athletes, and you succeed defensively. I’d say 70% of MLB *STILL* believes that, (and 90% or more of the fans). I’m of the mind that the SCHEME is likely MORE than 50% of the determining factor in defensive results. It certainly HELPS to have gifted athletes. But, based on player movement and results over the past decade, I believe ABILITY is a much smaller chunk of the equation than most.
July 7th, 2008 at 11:52 am Quote
The Mariners are an example of a team with several unique styles of pitching, all of which confound typical defensive positions.
Felix Hernandez is an EXTREME groundball/push side pitcher…his pitches move down and away from lefties (mostly) and he throws so hard that it’s nearly impossible for normal hitters to pull him. Seriously…take a look at his spray charts for righties and lefties…they’re badly biased and mirror image opposites. In his last start, before the injury, Riggleman had the center fielder and the middle infielders shifted to the push side on almost every at bat except when Carlos Delgado was up because he’s an extreme pull hitter.
In contrast to Hernandez, you’ve got Washburn, who’s an extreme flyball/pull pitcher…the way he gets outs, even now…is by enticing you to get too aggressive on his mediocre velocity fastballs up in the zone and fly out to your pull side with them. His last start, in which he allowed just 2 runs in 6 innings of work, it looked like the outfield was moving around more before each pitch and shaded to pull more the few times I could see it before a ball was hit.
It could very well be that this team was just not creative enough to adapt to their different pitching styles until Riggleman arrived.
July 7th, 2008 at 5:07 pm Quote
#223….
Totally agree with you. I posted about this in Part 3 of DrNaka’s posts about the cause of DER. The Riggleman quote came from Buster Olney’s blog I believe, and yes Olney was saying that Riggleman was going to focus on defensive positioning based on who was pitching that day, and that Atlanta was the master of this back when Riggleman was managing the Padres. IIRC.
My theory was like yours & DrNaka’s, that poor positioning was compounding the problem of Joh’s late setup to create the DER discrepancy. Another poster, maybe misterjonoez? said, why would Joh’s late setup affect the outcome at all when Earl Weaver did not include it as one of the things an infielder should look for in positioning himself. The signals from the catcher are all you need.
But it seems intuitive to me that a shortstop could see a catcher signal fastball in, and doubt himself for a fraction of a second more if he doesn’t see the catcher set up in the corresponding position. And outfielders, can they even see the signs from the catcher? I would think they would react to catcher setup position to a fair degree.
July 7th, 2008 at 5:17 pm Quote
I remember in 2006 against A’s.
IIRC J. Kendal was batting. It was a very low scoring game and A’s had runners at 1st and two out.
With Kendal batting I thought OF are in. But Hargrove had the outfield at something like at warnig track to avoid a double.
The result?
Kendal hit a bloop fly between OF and SS for a RBI double.
July 7th, 2008 at 5:44 pm Quote
I was going to respond to Grizz but DrNaka beat me to it
I remember there being a post about it at the time.
July 7th, 2008 at 5:47 pm Quote
I’m more worried about this than his defense:
-LL
July 7th, 2008 at 5:53 pm Quote
indeed…it would help if he’d stop grounding out to third in 2/3 of his at bats. ARGH
July 7th, 2008 at 9:08 pm Quote
Maybe I have an answer.
Just an idea why Johjima’s DER was so awful with situational positioning of the defense.
I will post as an article when I have time.
July 7th, 2008 at 9:08 pm Quote
looking forward to it.
July 7th, 2008 at 10:48 pm Quote
**de-lurks in response to Sandy’s interesting #223**
In case nobody’s posted this before:
Defensive Efficiency (calculated as [H-HR+ROE]/[BFP-K-BB-HBP-HR]):
McLaren April .690
McLaren May .665
McLaren June .667
(McLaren overall .675)
Riggleman June/July .720
(I give the DER under McLaren by month so has to have batches of roughly comparable size; Riggleman may not stay up at .720, but still, after almost three weeks he’s running well ahead of McLaren’s best month.)
Of course it’s tough to prove how much is directly due to changes in defensive positioning strategy, and how much to other factors; but whatever the cause, the team’s results on defensive balls-in-play have improved by a little more than a hit a game since Riggleman took over– which typically corresponds to a little under a run a game, which is like replacing a AAAA scrub with Ruth or Bonds in his prime. (Past performance no guarantee of future results, of course– especially not on that magnitude!–but still worth tracking as the season wears on.)
It could be argued, on McLaren’s side, that situation-based (rather than pitcher-based) positioning could gain efficiencies at the run and game levels, at the cost of allowing more hits. But still, it would take a *lot* of run- and game-level efficiencies to make up for a clear cut improvement in hits-allowed rate like that.
So the “the apparent and immediate improvement of the Ms defense in the brief Riggleman era” appears to be supported by the data so far. (And if anyone can find the quote Sandy mentioned, I’d love to see it in Riggleman’s own words. For a manager to get something big right like that, makes a lot of little mistakes forgiveable.)
**re-lurks**
July 7th, 2008 at 11:06 pm Quote
Yep…I’ve been tracking that DER figure on my “update board” at home…bottom line…the Mariners instantly became better to about the same degree as if they’d added an ace starting pitcher in trade the moment McLaren got fired. Kind of impressive.
July 7th, 2008 at 11:42 pm Quote
I think I found one link:
Here’s the link:
http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mariners/story/402826.html
I will try to look for other sources as I think I also read about the drills somewhere (not in TNT).
July 8th, 2008 at 1:48 am Quote
Dr. Naka has been saying for a year or two, that the Mariners position their defense by cliche.
He’s been calling for the Mariners to use the pitchers’ scattercharts, and has pointed out several convincing instances in which the two approaches led to opposite positioning.
The Mariners’ defensive positioning has simply been too superficial. It’s been old-school, lazy “Morrow’s in there, so swing the defense around the other way” thinking.
………………
I’m the last guy to accuse a major league organization of being dumb, but in this case, they evidently have been lazy and over-traditional in their defensive positioning. In many, many ways this is just an organization trapped in the 1970’s, way overconfident about the old-schoolers’ rules of thumb.
………………
What’s amazing to me is how much of a difference the defensive positioning could make. Wow.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:54 am Quote
.
BTW, if the Mariners do get serious, and appoint an Olkin type to provide data-rich D recommendations … and that exonerates Johjima …. I’ll be the most delighted guy in the world.
If Joh’s late setup is only a “loss multiplier” when in the context of last-generation cliche’d defense … if his late setup is a nonfactor when in the context of sophisticated defense … I’ll be giddy with joy for him.
July 8th, 2008 at 1:56 am Quote
Here’s some (rather frustrating) food for thought.
Last year, the Mariners’ team DER was .681.
Let’s say that they had played up to their PMR suggested potential and been a little better than league average defensively. That plwaces their DER around .692.
They gave up 4439 balls in play last year, and lost at least 0.01 hits per BIP…which translates to 44 hits.
we’ll call it an even 50 and assume that the average hit they lost was worth half a run. That’s 25 runs or THREE WINS they threw away last year by playing lazy defense. Just an estimate, but a painful one.
Add three wins to the Mariners’ ledger and they’re a lot closer to the Angels AND the wild card. If a couple of those wins were in the many close games the Mariners lost to the Angels…
Yes…it’s possible for lazy defense to cost you the pennant. Literally.
July 8th, 2008 at 2:22 am Quote
Right, and that three games is the mean. Coulda been six, or coulda been none.
I’m very impressed by the amount of difference that D-positioning can make. Youse guys have been trying to tell me, but it’s just hard to believe. You’re converting me, though.
July 8th, 2008 at 9:19 am