=== Weaver On Strategy ===

What Dr. D would do, right now, is put his two or three no-glove, bat-first benchies into the lineup.

This was Earl's magic recipe for curing an offensive funk.  It's a practical, agile, and do-able response to a team slump.

Take the 1972 Orioles:  Bobby Grich (127 OPS+), Terry Crowley (112) and Don Baylor (119) on the bench.

Earl's regular 9 were a mix of bat and glove specialists, and if the MOTO hitters slumped, it could get ugly.  His bench always contained real bats, guys who could win the game with a pinch-hit, and guys who could go in and cure a team slump twice a year.

As Earl explained, "it's bad for morale when your starters feel like they have to throw a shutout to win."  

He would flood his bats into the game, even if it meant bad defense for a little while.  This would include moving players to tougher defensive positions.  Earl would yank his glove wizard Mark Belanger from SS, putting a 2B in there (Bobby Grich), in order to maximize his offensive punch.

The defense might get ugly.  That was beside the point.  Orioles would play 8-to-5 ball games for a week, and the slumping regulars would join in the festivities against long relievers, and boom.  The slump over, the glove players would go back in.

Earl specifically wrote about this response in Weaver on Strategy.  With emphasis. 

…………….. 

This isn't to criticize, but to point out a little paradox the local nine has fallen into… the M's love:

1) Aesthetic defense

2) 12-man staffs

3) Swiss Army Knife benchies (Cairo, Bloomie, etc)

4) Rigid 9-man lineups

5) All of the above

So the Mariners do not have The Earl Response available.  Nor do they have the natural protection against mega-slumps that Billy Beane enjoys, through his Custx8 approaches.

Lesson learned: one of the hidden downsides to the M's roster preferences, is that there is no AGILE, nimble, low-inertia in-season fix to a slump like this. 

Ironically, with the emphasis on security… how secure does the ballclub feel at this point?  :- ) 

………………..

Oakland is a modern example of the bench-bat model.  Last year they had literally 8-9 bat-first, no-glove players rotating in and out.   Cust, and Snelling, and Swisher, and Johnson, and Piazza, and Stewart, and Buck, and I forget who all.

The point is, if three guys slump, you have three others to go with …

………………..

This bench and roster is the anti-Earl, anti-Beane bench and roster.  It has its plusses, but you are witnessing the 3rd-biggest negative associated — the deep, unfixable offensive slump.  Which can metastasize into a team that gives up. 

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=== No Absolutes Need Apply === 

Defense is a wonderful thing and all that, but you guys are watching the downside to holding defense and versatility as an absolute. 

What is the flippin' big deal about losing your DH twice a year?  Why can't Burke's AND Cairo's spots go to whatever the biggest sticks are that you can get your hands on?

What's the big deal about switching positions around?  Betancourt to the bench, JLo to short, Raul to 1B, stuff like that.

So it would be ugly when Jack Cust watched a ball bounce off the warning track four feet away from him.  Is that ugli-ER than what you are watching right now?!

Go the Earl route, if you don't like what you're seeing.  Develop a bench that can snap the regulars out of vaporlock twice a year.

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=== Stay the Course ===

Even Beane and Epstein will bear with their ballclubs early IFF they believe in the ballclub.

How many of these Mariners do you expect to win your next pennant with? 

1. Ichiro

2. Beltre

3. Clement

4. JLo

5. Betancourt

6. Wlad (or Tui, or Triu)

7.  Johjima* (controversial but D-O-V says, sure)

8. Bedard

9. Felix

10. Putz

11. Morrow

12.  RRS, Dickey, Tui, Trui, Aumont, Ramirez, etc 

The M's have put together a group of high-upside kids, and truly marquee players (SP1, SP2, CL, SU) that …. well, that I can root for.

Hey, Erik Bedard and Felix Hernandez would have been horrifying in pinstripes — even the 1996-2001 teams.  Those are just the kind of players that Steinbrenner used to envy in the M's, back around 1996. 

Put Brandon Morrow into the rotation and I don't care whether this team wins or loses.  I like them so much that I'll bear with them until they jell. 

Because this is a roster that is building towards a championship, not towards 88 wins.

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=== Dr's Diagnosis Dept. ===

Sports slumps happen when you catch a bad break, get off your stroke, bad things happen, and you don't believe in yourself any more.  For the moment.

The M's have caught a boatload of bad breaks — the BABIP, Putz, Bedard, and a bunch of enemy SP's who threw out of their minds that day (like Mussina again Saturday).

Those .265 BABIP's led to pressing, which led to the mindset of expecting to lose.  Friday's 4 errors aren't lack of effort; they're yips.

Slumps happen.  The M's has reached the point to where they, short term, expect things to mess up.

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=== Dr's Prescription Dept. ===

1.  Patience - stay the course, because this is a roster worth rooting for.

If you don't have moves available … well, don't panic.  Because you believe in these players. 

R.A. Dickey is a move I'd make.  

………….. 

2.  Trades - If you're willing to get decisive:  flip Sexson, Vidro, and Washburn for (1) a SU, for (2) Jr/Tex/rental/whatever and for (3) Morrow SP.  

Eat some $$ … what, 50-70% of all their prorated 2008 dough?.   Better than throwing away $115M.

If the Board magically gave D-O-V the reins tomorrow, sure, I'd be wheeling and dealing. 

2a) I'd deal some minor league talent for a stabilizing relief arm or two, no matter how long USSM held its breath until it turned blue :- ) and I would move Brandon Morrow into the rotation.  (Miguel Batista can also cover SU.)

I'd go ahead and 2b) offload Sexson now, eating half his prorated $$ or whatever, and 2c) offload Jarrod Washburn.

I'd be 2d) calling on Teixeria, on Griffey and on whatever legit MOTO lefty bat could be had for $1.20 on the dollar.   You offer enough, and people say Yes.   I wouldn't be about pleasing some invisible blog with 3,000 readers.  I'd be about pleasing the 40,000 visible fannies in the seats every night.

I'd be 2e) reconfiguring my bench to get some bats onto it. 

But that's not to say those things are necessary. 

…………. 

3.  11-man hitting rotation - Learn the lesson of a 5-man bench with 2-3 bats.   You might even address this in-season, with Eduardo Perez/Ben Broussard TYPE trades.

Who are the two best platoon sticks available?  You could dump Cairo and/or RP#12 and/or Jamie Burke, and get two good part-time LH hitters in here.

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=== Dr's Endorsement === 

But whatever they do or don't, I love this team. 

They have earned my respect.  After four years of 25 Honda Civics and plumber's union entitlement, this is a dynamic collection of players I plan to root for.

One of these days, that Clement kid is going to be a ballplayer.  :- ) 

Go Mariners,

Dr D