It's a brand new season and the PythagenMatt GameTracker is back.

This year, rather than slapping something together in Excel, I've devised a nifty program inMS Access that will allow me to simply enter the game scores eachday and produce a summary table in a query that can be copied right on over into this post - no problemo.

A reminder for new readers or people who may have forgotten what PythagenMatt is:

PythagenPat (Patriot's W% estimator for seasonal run scoring information) has this formula:

PythagenPat = RS^X / (RS^X + RA^X) —> X = ((RS + RA) / G)^0.285

RS = Runs Scored
RA = Runs Allowed
G = Games Played

PythagenMatt is PythagenPat, but applied to each game, one at a time.  The G in the X formula is just 1 at all times.  I apply an empirically derived linear transformation to the aggragate raw PythagenMatt W% found by summing all of the game PythagenPat figures for a team and dividing by games played in order to factor out the center-pull bias that comes from limiting blowout games to a 0 to 1 scale.

PythagenMatt W% = ((SUM(Game PythagenPat) / G) - 0.1531) / 0.6938.

But other than that tweak, it's a very simple calculation.

Anyway, this year, I can track all kinds of nifty doodads automatically (strength of schedule, schedule-adjusted PythagenMatt - this one is coming soon…haven't developed it yet, running pythags etc) without spending hours upon hours developing tools in Excel and oh BTW, the daily update will take like 2 minutes instead of 30. :)

PythagenMatt standings through the games of 5/11:

 

Team G RS RA W WP PWP MWP
ARI 38 208 164 23 98.1 99.1 102.3
ATL 35 173 132 18 83.3 100.9 99.9
CHN 37 211 158 22 96.3 103.0 97.6
BOS 40 206 175 24 97.2 93.5 96.8
FLA 37 181 167 23 100.7 87.2 94.8
TBR 37 171 155 21 91.9 88.4 94.2
STL 39 177 154 23 95.5 91.3 93.2
OAK 39 187 145 23 95.5 99.6 91.8
HOU 38 185 166 21 89.5 89.2 90.6
LAA 39 178 178 22 91.4 81.0 90.2
NYN 35 173 159 19 87.9 87.5 87.8
NYA 38 167 164 19 81.0 82.4 87.2
CHA 36 165 145 18 81.0 90.6 84.1
CLE 36 161 138 18 81.0 92.3 82.7
PHI 39 185 175 21 87.2 85.2 81.3
TOR 38 145 150 17 72.5 78.5 81.0
LAN 37 184 167 19 83.2 88.4 78.9
PIT 36 179 196 17 76.5 73.9 78.4
MIN 36 158 163 19 85.5 78.6 76.2
KCR 37 133 163 16 70.1 66.3 74.4
SFG 38 133 177 16 68.2 60.4 74.0
BAL 38 153 164 19 81.0 75.9 72.7
TEX 39 179 211 18 74.8 68.3 72.3
MIL 37 158 179 18 78.8 71.6 67.7
SEA 39 153 176 15 62.3 70.6 66.8
WAS 38 148 193 15 63.9 61.3 64.9
COL 38 164 198 15 63.9 66.6 64.2
DET 38 180 209 16 68.2 69.3 63.0
SDP 38 128 173 14 59.7 59.5 62.3
CIN 38 162 191 15 63.9 68.5 60.0

 

A little decoder, for those who don't read the ancient language of Geekish, which is characterized by an almost obsessive reliance of abbreviated shorthand labels. :)

WP = Win Projection (162 game schedule)
PWP = PythagenPat Seasonal Win Estimate
MWP = PythagenMatt Game by Game Win Estimate