How Will Ichiro Perform in 2008? -Part 2 (Dr Naka)
Thanks all for the comments to my part 1.
As I wrote in part 1 there have been some TV interviews in Japan this off-season. Part of it is the interview of NHK which has been reported by Brad Lefton
Doctor: "Ichiro has a very fine prefrontal cortex"
For 70 days over three different spans of last season, a four-person, one-camera crew (of which this writer was a member) followed Ichiro's every move, trying to discern his professional methodology.
Here some pictures from the TV (Sorry for bad quality because I made camera shots of TV). First picture is Ichiro commuting in his car (Ichiro likes super sports cars and has some of them).
Next picture is Ichiro eating home made curry.
The camera discovers that Ichiro has eaten the same lunch before home games all seven years he has been in Seattle — homemade Japanese curry from his wife Yumiko. Not variations of her recipe, but the exact same kind every single day. And on the road, he almost always opts for a cheese pizza, easy on the sauce and fluffy around the edges, if you must know.
Now other pics which have not been mentioned in the Seattle Times article:
Ikkyuu hi-five with Yumiko-san. When Yumiko-san watch Ichiro's game at TV and he gets a hit Ikkyuu hi-five with her.
Now back more to baseball related interviews. In all the interviews Ichiro was very confident.
He was confident because he found out the ultimate swing in 2007.
Why?
He found his perfect swing! Or the beginning of his perfect swing.
What is it? Go to MLB.com and watch the video of his swing.
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/multimedia/tp_archive.jsp?c_id=sea&ym=200704
April 11: SEA @ BOS Ichiro 0-for-4 vs. Dice-K
And
April 15: TEX @ SEA Ichiro goes 4-for-5:
So what changed?
Answer will be in part 3
Part 4 will be about leadership.
April 3rd, 2008 at 9:24 am Quote
Or watch this:
http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/multimedia/tp_archive.jsp?c_id=sea&ym=200708
Aug. 1: ANA @ SEA
• Ichiro’s four hits 400K
April 3rd, 2008 at 9:36 am Quote
Thanks for the post Dr Naka! I do believe that if any player were to ever discover the “perfect swing,” it would be Ichiro.
April 3rd, 2008 at 11:28 am Quote
Looking forward to hearing about it!
For a while now, it has seemed to me that Ichiro clears with the knees more aggressively, keeps the bat back longer, gets more angle between the bat and his forearms at the apex of his windup.
But Ichiro’s adjustments, as he says, are often not even visible. He is fine-tuning the dials on satellite telescopes here :- )
In 2007 he hit .351 in Safeco Field. Hitting *.300* is an almost flukish accomplishment for anybody else, not to be repeated back-to-back.
Michael Young would find it as hard to hit .390 at Texas as he would to hit .351 at Safeco.
April 3rd, 2008 at 11:31 am Quote
If he found the perfect swing, why did his offense stagnate the second half of last year?
April 3rd, 2008 at 11:40 am Quote
Was more of a July dog-days thing. In August he hit .369, in September .347.
Still, a basketball shooter might find the ultimate shooting stroke, and still go through hot and cold streaks for other reasons. The stroke is going to make it *easier* for him to find the zone again, but Dead Stroke is only partly driven by your mechanics.
April 3rd, 2008 at 1:08 pm Quote
he may have hit for a high average in Aug and Sep but he had zero power, and his K/BB was terrible those months.
April 3rd, 2008 at 1:15 pm Quote
Ichiro is continually searching (experimenting??!) for the “perfect” swing.
What was wrong with the swing from July-Oct ‘04? I haven’t heard a peep from Ichiro about the swing he hit .400+ with since then…hes completely abandoned it..whats the deal?
April 3rd, 2008 at 5:01 pm Quote
Ya, he probably did drop off in the second half, point taken… not terribly but then, the question is whether he solved the game, so yeah…
He does seem to be evolving. Back in 2004 he would serve the pitch over the SS’s head, bunt a little IIRC, slap the ball past IF’s and run like crazy.
Nowadays he DOES seem to be honing a gorgeous knees-first katana swing and I’d have thought for sure that he was “truing” up the ball better. But that doesn’t mean that his scramble game of 2004 wasn’t actually more productive.
April 3rd, 2008 at 5:10 pm Quote
Some tips.
He changed (tinkered) the stance and top of swing in 2007 ST.
He was terrible in early April 2007. He changed in mid April.
It is what you can see.
Check his stance early April and May etc. You will find out.
There are something you will not see (cannot watch). You never know (before the swing) whether he is swinging for long ball or not.
April 3rd, 2008 at 5:18 pm Quote
When you are hitting .400+ with a certain swing, thats pretty darn productive.
There was a study done by a Japanese analyst 3 years ago (when Ichi changed his swing in June/July ‘04). The new stance allowed Ichiro to react “later” to the ball, it gave him an extra split second to track the ball.
He hit .400+ with that swing, and since then, has abandoned it.
April 3rd, 2008 at 9:54 pm Quote
#10 - that IS a riddle.
April 3rd, 2008 at 11:05 pm Quote
I think Ichiro isn’t looking for the swing that is most productive…he’s looking for the swing that is both productive and “perfect” technically and artistically. He is very image conscious from what I’ve seen…very focused on putting on a show for the fans…very interested in achievements and goals, and motivated by personal vanity. All of this can be a good thing for the Mariners most of the time…it makes him the perfectionist he is…it’s why he will age well and hit .320 very late into his career. But I think it made him reject the .400 hitter swing because it was kinda…unmanly…uninteresting. He could play patty-cake with the ball aaaaaallllll day…it’s just not that exciting.
April 3rd, 2008 at 11:14 pm Quote
Could also be that he’s looking ahead to when he may lose half a step out of the box. If he knows he won’t be able to beat out those grounders to short forever, then he could be searching for a swing that won’t rely on ‘em as much. He seems like the type that would look ahead and want to be prepared.
April 3rd, 2008 at 11:22 pm Quote
that may be playing a role too, yes. He may be looking for the single-hitting stroke that makes him last longer not just perform better now…he is ultra-concerned about failure and doesn’t want to suddenly drop off.
April 4th, 2008 at 9:10 am Quote
#14,15
The swing allows him to react later, which would help him when hes aging as well.
Heres a HOF post on it by Dr.Naka in the old school Sportspot days.
http://www.sportspot.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=2761&st=0
July 15th, 2008 at 12:41 pm Quote
ICHIRO HAS BEEN SANDBAGGING!!!!
For all the reports of our clubhouse going to H, E double Hockey Sticks in a hand basket, and reports that Ichiro is not a clubhouse presence, and that we have no leaders, no fire, no passionate Alpha Male type player to guide , push, and prod our other players to victory and to jell as a team. Well… just read this:
Turns out Ichiro DOES have a personality after all
Why can’t / doesn’t Ichiro do this for the Mariners??? If he is willing to fire up the All star team to win a stinkin exhibition game, then why is he so (allegedly) stoic and unperson-able in his own locker room? Seriously, one of the biggest knocks on the guy is that he is not a clubhouse leader, he just doesn’t have that type personality. And everyone excuses it because he is not a native English speaker, and because everyone is entitled to his own personality, but then how do we reconcile that with the above article?
Has Ichiro been holding back, and if so why? Or maybe all of the reports about Ichiro being a stoic, clubhouse non-factor are false? I have been an Ichiro fan for every instant of his MLB career, and yet he is now an even bigger mystery to me than when he first came over. As much as i love the guy, it may be time for the M’s to trade the greatest singles hitter in the history of the game, and maybe his next team will inspire him to give a rant or two, because he sure aint inspired by this team.
July 15th, 2008 at 1:03 pm Quote
What is different about these two situations?
EVENT A:
1) Happens once per year
2) Only the truly elite attend
3) Outcome not actually very important
4) You don’t have to ‘hang’ with any of these people for another year.
EVENT B:
1) Happens 162 times per year
2) Mix of elite, average and scrubs
3) Outcome usually matters for at least 1/2 of 162 times.
4) You have to ‘hang’ with these people for who knows how many years.
========
So, ask yourself what the impact of Ozzie Guillen going balistic on TV after *EVERY* loss would be on his team.
Has Ichiro been holding back? Sure. But, he’s smart enough to understand that something that can work once-a-year isn’t something that can work daily. In point of fact, it is the SHOCK value that adds to the schtick. One of the basic realities of baseball compared to football is that in football you only play once a week in football, so the rah-rah speech CAN actually be tweaked enough to maintain effectiveness - especially in college. Ain’t gonna happen in baseball.
July 15th, 2008 at 3:21 pm Quote
But in eight YEARS Ichiro has (allegedly) NEVER given a rah rah speech. By all accounts he is an introverted, non-factor in the clubhouse, if not worse, a cancer. In at least 2 of his 8 season there have been catastrophic collapses (04, and 08) and not ONCE did he try and give the team a pep talk, at least not that we know about. The closest thing we got was a contrived analogy about branches and roots that he gave through the media.
Of course I am not saying he should give a speech everyday, but zero in eight season is rather bizarre don’t you think? Espeicially now that we know he is capable of given a very good one.
July 15th, 2008 at 4:01 pm Quote
If you read the comments from the players, the reason it works is because it’s so out of character for him. I also don’t get the impression that it’s a rah-rah speach. More of a vile, filthy diatribe about the other team and quite possibly their mothers, household pets and the garbage man. There is precedence for Ichiro’s foul language and how he can use it for pure shock value - remember the Costas interview his first year?
One “two rats in a wool sock” comment every once in a while is funny. Every day, it’s obnoxious.
I think you are reading too much into this one, OBF.
July 15th, 2008 at 10:21 pm Quote
Again, I am not saying he should do it everyday, or even every year. How about just once? In eight years, to the best of my knowledge, he has never done it. In eight years I have never read a single story about Ichiro addressing the whole club house, or calling a players only meeting, or even taking one person aside by themselves to encourage or admonish them. His whole time in Seattle he has been like a player in a bubble. And I guess I find it just a wee bit galling, now, to find out every year he riles up the all star team with a speech. I don’t care if he swore or sang them a hymn, he addressed an entire room of all stars, which tells me he can do it, but he just chooses not to in Seattle, and I am just trying to wrap my head around that a little bit. If there had been other clubhouse leaders, or if the team was winning I could understand, but when Bavasi is BEGGING for someone to step up and light a fire under his players rears, and Ichiro doesn’t, even though he obviously can, it tells me something.
Again I was and still am a huge Ichiro fan, but the guy is a bigger mystery to me today than he was eight years ago. I just don’t get him, or his motivations, or what his plan is/was, or if he even cares about winning, or what. I am not going to turn into one of those irrational Ichiro haters over this, I would just like a little peek under the veil at just how his mind works.
More than just an Ichiro fan I am a M’s fan first, and I think it is time to trade Ichiro at his peak value.
July 16th, 2008 at 4:11 am Quote
This isn’t Ichiro’s peak value at all.
July 16th, 2008 at 6:19 am Quote
Yeah, Fett. If Ichiro were at peak value, there would be absolutely zero talk of trading him.
July 16th, 2008 at 7:15 am Quote
If one defines peak as “he will only get worse from here”, then the rest of his career will be his peak value.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:13 pm Quote
Perhaps. His contact % is as high as ever, so his value would probably be worth more next year when A) he has better numbers then right now and b) his salary is worth less then it is now.
July 16th, 2008 at 12:17 pm Quote
Sandy…Ichiro has been unlucky this year with the BABIP compared to his norms…I think he’ll be back to .330 averages sooner rather than later. But he’s lost his ability to both hit .330 AND crack 8 HR/8 3B/25 2B…when he gears up for power now, his BABIp drops 50 points. So he’s never going to hit like 2001 or 2004 again. But he can still do better than he’s done this year.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:06 pm Quote
Actually, I was just working on a second half projection, and had Ichiro hitting .330 in the second half. While I know his current stat line is a little on the low side, his age makes it pretty much assured that if he is not already in decline, he will be shortly.
July 16th, 2008 at 1:12 pm Quote
this is Ichiro’s age-35 season…you can expect a decline at some point…but Ichiro is the type of player who has a longer shelf-life…speed and extreme contact-hitting skill usually give players long life.
July 16th, 2008 at 3:55 pm Quote
OBF wrote:
Ichiro strikes me as an elitist.. he puts himself at a level above his current teammates, most of which are no good.. I think there is little incentive or joy from leading a band of bums or even tryin to lead them..
However, u put Ichiro on the big stage, world watching, amongst players who are on his level, and he has no problem leading or doing everything he can to energize his team..
What’s sad is that outside of his rookie season, when he couldnt even speak english, and didnt have to lead, he’s never been on a team with players of equal caliber, or were worth “leading” in his eyes..
Ichiro is all about the image.. and when u can be the leader of the World Baseball Champions (Japan), or the AL All Stars, or a truly great team that contends for the World Series.. that would get Ichiro going as a leader.. I really think he looks around at his teammates and sees very little to lead, and has little interest in wasting his energy