… that being John Benson's #1 yellow sticky note on draft day.   

The players most likely to exhibit the most dramatic spike in performance are those aged 26 who have several years of major league experience - John Benson 

His #2 sticky note, the one on the right side of his computer monitor :- ) being those players who had radically better second halves than first halves.

………………..

We posted a few times on Geoff Baker's blog and attracted a couple of Seattle P-I type posters.  These posters, evidently long-time D-O-V lurkers, held up two players as evidence that Dr. D can't evaluate players — those players being Yuniesky Betancourt (age 25 last year) and Jose Lopez (age 23 last year).  

This obviously implied that for Frenchy and JLo, the results are now in on their careers — in their early 20's.

………………..

Even assuming a hitter is talented, it's possible he'll never pan out.  

Even assuming you have a guy who hit 300/340/500 in AAA in a pitcher's park at the age of 20, as Lopez did — or assuming you have a guy had a 91% CT%  in the AL after only 400 minor-league AB's, as Betancourt did — the guy still may not jell.

To the P-I poster ;- ) each passing year is proof that the 23- or 25-year-old never had any talent.  To him, each year that goes by without 40 homers is just more proof that starring in the PCL at age 20 doesn't mean anything.

But to the roto champ searching the landscape for a huge bargain breakout, those three (3) years of lackluster ML performance are the fuse burning down to the quick of the bomb.   To the roto drafter with a "Post-Hype" sticky note on his monitor, each U-26 ML year gone by is another four inches of the fuse burnt down…

Assuming the hitter was talented, of course. 

Maybe the 20-year-old AAA hotshot will never pan out.  But if he does, the years spent in the majors create an ever-increasing threat of performance spike… 

………………..

A super-extreme U-26 sleeper?  This guy, who came up very young and talented, and then posted five (5) long years of lukewarm performance in the majors.  But each year gone by created more internal pressure inside the bomb…  five dreary years of early-20's mediocrity, followed suddenly by 48 homers and a .629 SLG in a pitcher's park.

……………….. 

We all seem to be pencilling Yuniesky Betancourt in for "stays the same" offensively in 2008.

Is that based on considered roto-geek-a-matic judgment … or is it based on being whipped into submission that there is no cheering in the press box?  :- )

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=== Post-Hype Sleeper Syndrome Dept. ===

John Benson IIRC was the first one to recommend the little draft-day sticky note of Age 26 ballplayers.  This being the most frequent age for a developing hitter to post a "breakout" year.  Shandler and others agree.

Betancourt's OPS's:

80 - 2005

86 - 2006

93 - 2007

105 - 2007 2H 

……………………….

Betancourt's CT%'s:

91 - 2005

90 - 2006

91 - 2007

………………………. 

Betancourt's PX's:

66 - 2005

67 - 2006

70 - 2007 1H  (389 SLG)

97 - 2007 2H  (445 SLG)

………………………

Betancourt's Eye Ratios:

0.46 - 2005

0.31 - 2006

0.31 - 2007

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=== Dr's Diagnosis ===  

Betancourt's CT% — the number of times he puts the ball in play, as opposed to striking out — is Vidro-esque, and among the best in baseball. 

This is despite the fact that he came to the majors very green, having had only 410 total minor-league AB's (!!) plus whatever he scrounged as a teenager in Cuba.   Betancourt with extremely dubious experience was rushed to a league he should have had no chance at — and from Day One, began squaring up the ball on ML pitchers like Jose Vidro.

……………….

If there's "no cheering in the press box," what you point out right now is that Betancourt will never hit for any power whatsoever — that he'll hit the same .300/.320/.400, into eternity, that he hit as a raw frosh.

This seems to be a loose consensus among field scouts:  that Betancourt "lacks the build" to hit for decent gap power.   Some disagree — notably Bill Bavasi and, not notably, myself.

You as the reader decide whether, as Betancourt learns to anticipate pitches a tick earlier (as he of course will), he will be able to do anything with those pitches — 45 doubles, 5 triples, 15 homers … or whether he'll hit the same 35 doubles, 2 triples, and 8 homers he hit last year.

………………

Personally I can see two completely different swings from Frenchy:

1) the arm swing, pictured above, that he has used 90-95% of the time to date

2) the swing where he winds his back shoulder, Ichiro-like, and launches the ball on a line, 375-400 feet.

.

=== Shandler's Diagnosis Dept. ===

Hacking ways still limit upside of excellent CT%.

Second half PX spike, and 6 Safeco homers, from a RH hitter, are intriguing. 

(Comment on CS's…)

Pay for a repeat (of 2007) [and hope for a not-too-likely upside, in Shandler-speak - Dr D].

2007 value:  $14  

2008 value:  $16

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=== D-O-V Site Prognosis, Dept. === 

Betancourt's talent has been pooh-poohed since he was comp'ed to Cesar Izturis, but when the Mariners signed him, they lumped him with Lopez in terms of being very talented both defensively and offensively.  The Mariners could be wrong, but it is clear that they believe that Betancourt has a blue-chip offensive pedigree.  That is a piece of information that factors in.

Betancourt has now had 1,300 ML at-bats, to go with his 400 minor-league AB's.  He comes into 2008 as "a 26-year-old with experience."

If he hits the 300/310/445 that he hit in the second half, his OPS+ will go from 93 to 105.

……………. 

If we weren't, um, too close to the situation …. would we be forecasting Betancourt to repeat 2007?  Or would he be on our yellow sticky note as Age-26 Breakout Candidate? 

Shandler's strategy is to hope that you buy him at 2007 values, locking in fair production and giving yourself a nice little shot at overperformance.  Same for most of the roto kings here, I would think.

But, I'm curious what others think — is Betancourt now maxed out at 300/310/400, or is he a threat to leap a plateau at the plate (300/320/440)?  Two plateaus (310/330/475)? 

Cheers,

Dr D