Hot Stove League: Kosuke Fukudome
=== M*A*S*H Dept. ===
Coming into 2007, Fukudome was a popular choice for the best player in Japan …. a .330/.430/.630 type hitter with speed and defense … and he hits left handed.
In 2007, though, his glitzy .630 SLG fell down towards the .500 range. Yowch. A .500-.530 SLG in Japan is liable to be league-average in MLB, if you're not careful. So now what. Is this a FA land mine, a $15m salary for a league-average hitter?
Well, generalities aside, what happened in 2007? What was the specific problemo there and how likely is it to carry over to 2008?
What happened was that he played with a sore right (lead) elbow that ripped out the ACL of his power stroke. If you review his batting results, you will notice that Fukudome saw about 20 homers die on the warning track for outs in 2007 — with all other indicators holding rock-steady.
He evidently wasn't able to turn on the ball as much last year due to the injury, but other than that he was the same player: 1.0 eye ratio, .430+ OBP, etc etc.
……………….
If Fukudome's elbow is good to go after midseason surgery — you will recall this was the question on Jose Guillen — then he comes into the major leagues comparable to Carlos Lee or Alfonso Soriano in on-field value.
And Fukudome hits lefty, with better defense.
If you got a healthy Fukudome for 7/$100m you'd probably be getting a discount. A clean physical on the elbow and MLB teams will not worry about the off year.
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=== All Your Base Are Belong To Us, Dept. ===
Walks? His eye ratio was 1:1 in Japan, with a super OBP, but you have noticed that Japanese players see their walks cut in half in MLB. (I suspect the reason is that Japanese players have no confidence in gaijin umps being fair about the strike zone, and so they cannot relax into taking the close ones. Ichiro has occasionally referred to his assumption that he will be victimized by unfair strikes called.)
Go with Godzilla as the relevant comp here, with the OBP "dropping" to about .370 in the bigs.
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=== .290/.370/.500? There's A Lot Of Guys Who Don't, Dept. ===
I wouldn't expect Fukudome to be a big star in the majors because (1) I don't expect him to finish in the top 10 for OBP and (2) since he's not real big, I'd slot his SLG at .500'ish.
But one of these days, some Japanese player is going to relax into the strike zone and carry the OBP across, and there is some chance (20%) that Fukudome will be that guy. If he posts a .420 OBP with gap power and everything else in his game, then obviously he is a franchise player.
I would be very interested in IceX's, Taro's, or Dr. Naka's feeling about Fukudome's chances to carry more patience into his MLB batter's box than (say) Godzilla did. This is a completely subjective discussion.
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=== Just Gimme Team Japan and Be Done With It, Dept. ===
Fukudome projects to be a very fine player in America, not a big star (although by the same token, neither should Carlos Lee be a superstar). A fine player who would also be a tremendous fit for a team that needs lefty hitting, OBP, and speed.
Fukudome has a rep for being a walking defensive clinic in RF — where have we heard that before?! And he'd look just gorgeous next to Ichiro as twin LH hit/RH throw players.
Japanese hitters are still discounted some, or have been to date, and the M's probably have no better way to spend $12m or so per year.
Cheers,
Dr D
November 9th, 2007 at 1:27 am Quote
BTW, if we’re way out of date here, like Fukudome has re-upped or something, just correct us where we’re wrong. Haven’t kept up with NPB since about early Sept. or something.
But last we checked, NPB hitters were Moneyball the way you draw it up on the chalkboard — a commodity undervalued enough to offer an opportunity buy.
There still seems to be a certain element of “well, if they haven’t proven it in the bigs, you never know.” Which was the same mentality that Branch Rickey exploited, when he used black players to push the 50’s Dodgers to the top of the league.
November 9th, 2007 at 5:30 am Quote
I’d FAR prefer to get into Fukudome for $12m/year than someone like Geoff Jenkins for $8-10m/year. Major marketing addition, awesome fielder and critically needed OBP skills, not to mention he satisfies the FO’s declaration that they won’t have two rookies in the OF.
Buying Fukudome allows the team to slot Raul/Vidro at 1B/DH, move AJ to LF and ship Sexson off into the sunset if they so desire. Jones/Ichiro/Fukudome? *THAT* outfield gives me goosebumps.
November 9th, 2007 at 5:58 am Quote
Fukudome’s injury history is a concern. He seems to pull things and get hit by balls or something quite often. So his talent level is very, very high, but his physical history is about as spotty as Uehara (he seems to pull a hamstring every year for a couple of weeks).
But Fukudome plays on turf and Safeco/MLB grass would strongly benefit him.
Stealing Fukudome and Kawakami from Chunichi would be a steal, but don’t count out the NPB teams. My guess is that Hanshin will play for Fukudome very, very hard. He’s the perfect complement and eventual replacement for Kanemoto.
In any case, Fukudome should be a top priority to replace Sexson. He is EXACTLY what this team needs. Lefty high OBP OFers are hard to get anyways, and Fukudome is a perfect fit for Safeco.
November 9th, 2007 at 9:43 am Quote
Jones/Ichiro/Fukudome? *THAT* outfield gives me goosebumps.
That would be da BOMB!! Best defensive outfield in MLB.
Man it’s frustrating when you can see a clear solution to the problem, but rely on others to follow through correctly.
So the bidding would be around 10-14 per, no wonder teams are wanting to trade for Raul’s 5.5 mil deal. But it’s clear that Fukudome could provide a major upgrade to our lineup.
How old is he?
November 9th, 2007 at 11:35 am Quote
Thanks for the analysis, Doc. Can’t bring any NPB insight or much else, but I can bring a couple of decades of navigating through bureaucratic haze and public-relations fog, and I will tell you this based on my experience: word choice and placement matters.
– This was the headline on the official mlb.com website:
Mariners set Guillen free, pave way for Jones (emphasis mine)
– The next day, the Seattle P-I beat writer produces:
“As good as Guillen was, his departure would give the Mariners two things they need. It would save them $8.5 million to put toward improving their pitching, which is their top offseason priority, and it would clear the way for top prospect Adam Jones to have an everyday job in the outfield.” (emphasis mine)
– Then today the mlb.com site says:
“The Mariners have a singular focus to improve the team for the 2008 season — pitching.”
Only in the very bottom fourth of the article is offense mentioned, and then only Jones and Clement, and a perfunctory mention of “maybe a bench bat” and that Wlad, Tui and Chen are nice prospects.
This is all a change from the prior tone, which was that Guillen would sign a reasonable extension and the Jones “logjam” was a separate issue. Now, Guillen walking is the decision that “paves the way” for Jones. What changed was (I think) that they realized Guillen was both not going to sign easily and a bigger PR headache than they thought, and they realized that they couldn’t trade Sexson without paying his whole salary anyway and still not getting anything back worth getting.
=======================
What it means:
1. They will not spend money on offense.
2. Jones is in right.
3. They do not share the web’s obsession with Raul’s defensive shortcomings, and he is their leftfielder until he’s not.
4. Sexson will have a chance to “revert to the mean” but he will be on a short leash, with Clement first in line to fill the spot if he gets dumped (with Wlad dropping back into the “also receiving votes” category with Tui and Chen).
5. Multiple millions for Fukudome seems very unlikely.
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As for pitching:
Kuroda continues to be the only FA pitcher getting any mention, with RRS and Morrow apparently very, very much at the head of the line for the other spot (no mention of Baek or Campillo; Feierabend mentioned only as a bullpen candidate).
Also looks like they’ll add a 2007 version of Reitsma (someone of the Dotel/Timlin variety).
Considering that they could easily go up to $10-15m to get a starter and a reliever, and they won’t be dumping any of Sexson’s salary, I don’t see Fukudome fitting.
But I’ve been wrong before!
November 9th, 2007 at 12:14 pm Quote
OBP is cool. SLG is great. But, should we sign Fukudome, what I would most enjoy would be watching those 3 CF in the outfield flying around catching EVERYTHING hit in the air, circa 2001-2003.
For a team seemingly obsessed with past success (ie 1995, 2001), I can’t believe that signing this guy is not a bigger priority at this point.
November 9th, 2007 at 12:23 pm Quote
i’d have to think that - in addition to umpiring factors - the transpacific OBP decline also must have something to do with how they get pitched and the change in hitting contexts. i.e. in japan a guy like fukudome is a threat to go out on every pitch and is approached as such, with the care and the offspeed nibbling. whereas if he’s more of a 20-25 HR type in the US, and the pitchers are all from texas and throw 95 anyway, they’re going to be much more likely to give him strikes and let him put it in play. right?
November 9th, 2007 at 1:54 pm Quote
#5 … Outstanding analysis Spec. Now that you point it out, that’s how I’d read it too. Good stuff.
None of which is to say that the M’s are predictable, whatever signals they send out at the beginning of the winter… :- )
November 9th, 2007 at 1:56 pm Quote
Right Wily …
There is also the basic difference in mentality between MLB and NPB pitching … in the majors it’s macho, make sure you don’t back down, challenge the hitter, beat the dead-red hitters by *locating* your fastball, etc etc…
In Japan it’s more like, don’t make a mistake, finesse the guy, don’t do anything stupid … brains above brawn.
Can easily imagine the NPB pitchers approaching the Big Dogs with a lot more caution than the Big Dogs see once they get over here.
November 9th, 2007 at 3:59 pm Quote
#5, definitely great analysis. I still have a problem with the idea that Sexson is worthless. He’s worth at least $4 million as a bench bat. In a part time role he should fetch at least $7 million. Also, whoever gets him, gets first shot at signing him to a new contract in a year at a more reasonable price.
Yes, I don’t expect the Mariners are receiving a lot of offers for Richie, as the supply of first basemen / designated hitters exceeds the demand. I believe the Mariners are still interested in trading him. At the same time, I don’t expect them to do it if they can’t get close to full value for him. The question becomes, is there another team that believes he will rebound and could use him?
Yes, it would seem very unlikely the Mariners will sign Fukudome, but I’m not totally convinced. He might just present the team with too good a possibility at too sweet a price. The team has made sharp deviations from their off-season plans in the past. My feeling is that this offseason will provide more surprises than predictable results for the Mariners. This could be one of them.
I just hope you are wrong about the Reitsma replacement thing. I hope they just convert Feierabend and Baek into long relief and leave bad enough alone. The more likely possibility is that you are right, the FO seems obsessed with adding more experience to the bullpen, no matter how much worse it is than what they already have.
November 9th, 2007 at 4:02 pm Quote
Not sure where to put this, but it is very cool.
http://www.stadeo.tv/baseball_world_cup_2007/games/
Here is free streaming video of all of the World Cup games, which is cool in itself (I suppose, if you have lots of free time) . . .
but the one of interest is “9 NOV Cuba v. Canada” (just click on VOD and it comes up).
It is our own Philippe Aumont throwing two scoreless innings against Cuba (which is, obviously, the highest level of international opposition, and he’s still just 18).
You can skip ahead to about the 24:00 mark and the 36:00 mark to see Aumont or just go straight to the 43:00 mark for a two-on, two-out showdown ending in a swinging strike.
They had him throwing 150-152 (which, best I can figure, is about 93-94), and he gave up only two singles (infield grounder and clean liner to right).
Also of note, around the 16:00 mark is an epic bases-loaded at-bat by our own Michael Saunders (but it ends in a pop up). I didn’t watch past there, but (at least on my computer) it was pretty easy to skip around to the parts you wanted. You can get the boxscore by going to baseball.ch then “Scores”, then “Nov. 9″
Also, Team USA — with Delmon Young, Evan Longoria, etc. — lost to Italy, 6-2, which has to rank with the all-time upsets.
November 9th, 2007 at 4:02 pm Quote
According to Ichiro’s 2004 interview/biography book, he said its known in Japan MLB strike zone is about a ball’s width wider on one side of the plate. He said in his 2000 season when he knew for sure he was coming to MLB he actually took the larger MLB strike zone upon himself in order to prepare, and the umps in Japan went with it.
November 9th, 2007 at 4:05 pm Quote
Looking at the #s not, not sure how much that affected him. He actually had his best ever BA and OBP that year, so go figure.
November 9th, 2007 at 4:12 pm Quote
I would love to have Fukudome in right.
November 9th, 2007 at 4:12 pm Quote
Oh, and one more:
the mlb.com site has a nice video of the Fall League prospects, with some at-bats and interviews from Clement, Tui and Chen.
November 9th, 2007 at 6:50 pm Quote
The Mariners did the same thing in 2005 with Johjima. They talked him as a third-line priority, but signed him anyways.
The M’s know when the good deal comes by. Fukudome will be no different.
November 9th, 2007 at 7:28 pm Quote
Will Fukudome be a good deal though? NPB players are undervalued still but I doubt we’d get Fukudome at an easily justifiable 5.5 mil a year.
The Mariners will sign Fukudome if and only if he flies to Seattle and tells them in no uncertain terms that he wants to play in Ichiro’s outfield.
November 9th, 2007 at 7:46 pm Quote
Dayn Perry is reporting that Kuroda wants west coast, so I think he’s in the bag. Perry’s also reporting that the M’s are interested in Kobayashi Masahide from Lotte. He was Bobby V’s closer the last few years, but he had a pretty bad injury this year. If the M’s want relievers, I’d probably try to steal Otsuka from Texas too.
Fukudome strikes me more as a Ichiro-type player than a Matsui (one who doesn’t want to share the stage). I also have a feeling it’ll be west coast if he comes over.
November 9th, 2007 at 8:45 pm Quote
I’m all for stealing relievers from Japan…and if Otsuka could be had at a fair price, I’d be for that too.
Kuroda would be a BIIIIGG upgrade over Weaver for the 4 spot and could move up higher in the rotation with time.
Thanks, BTW, to the folks who pointed out the World Cup video…that was pretty cool. Phillippe Aumont TOWERED above the other players there if you ask me…and I don’t just mean he was tall. He looked like a real big leaguer…no one else looked like it.
November 10th, 2007 at 1:19 am Quote
In the bag, no kidding Ice?
Any guesses as to where his velo will be?
November 10th, 2007 at 1:46 am Quote
The sports press say that the Ms are interested in Kuroda (starter) and Kobayashi (middle relief). A plus for the Ms is that Kuroda would like to pitch to Johjima and not have to worry about communication problems.
Masahide Kobayashi, having had a great career, was sent down to the minors for a time this past year. He was very good in the playoffs, however, the East Windup Chronicle reports that many believe his velocity and control are slipping.
November 10th, 2007 at 2:26 am Quote
That’s OK…Koboyashi would be a cheap flier…no more than a quick mil. That’s a good gamble.
November 10th, 2007 at 7:32 am Quote
So, if Kuroda comes to the M’s will he let Joh resume shifting around back there?
November 10th, 2007 at 8:45 am Quote
Perry’s rumors have been pretty reliable up to date. He’s more stat oriented, so the times he does rumor monger, he seems to be more on the ball than, say, Rosenthal or Gammons.
That said, the West Coast thing has been mentioned from multiple sources, so I think Seattle has a strong, strong case.
Johjima is a chip alone. And when the Japanese players go looking for a job, they do talk a lot. Unless they’re headstrong like the Matsuis, Ichiro isn’t going to be any sort of disadvantage.
November 10th, 2007 at 3:43 pm Quote
Ichiro is a strong advantage for lesser free agents (anything other than Dice-K and Hideki Matsui lever) and strong free agents that don’t have matching egos. He can be a bad thing if you have a guy who’s more interested in proving he can be a franchise player. Everyone associates Ichiro with the Mariners so another Japanese star is not going to come over here and be considered the Mariners’ franchise player.
November 10th, 2007 at 11:02 pm Quote
I can’t remember where I read it, however, at the beginning of the season Dice-K had communication problems with Varitek and didn’t feel comfortable for the first several months. It seems to me that several others (like Nomo) also had initial communication problems with their catchers. Kuroda may have a real need of having a catcher who is fluent in Japanese.
It is rumored in Chicago that the Cubs want to get Matsui from the Rockies so as to be more attractive to Fukudome.
Ichiro is a definite advantage. Alot of Mariner games get broadcasted back to Japan because Ichiro’s fans back home still want to keep up with him.
November 11th, 2007 at 6:41 pm Quote
Fukudome filed for FA officially today.
NPB and MLB teams can bid for him from 14th.
Rumor is Yomiuri Giants are bidding about 20M$/4years.
It is reported Cubs will bid 60M$/5 years.
With the MLB FA market at 4M$ per win above bench (or replacement) or 8M$+4M$*(wins above average) the offer from Cubs indicate that GMs are counting on Fukudome as a 1 win player above average for a span of 5 years.
November 11th, 2007 at 7:17 pm Quote
Seems like a reasonable bid, Seattle won’t be in it though unless our owner wants us to be in which case I would expect something big.
Personnally don’t think the Mariners have any intentions of going after Fukudome.
November 11th, 2007 at 7:39 pm Quote
We (the FO) were committed to the idea of Veteran Re-tread #228934798273879842 manning RF for the next couple of years, so I have no doubt that we’ll be interested.
The question is just how high that interest goes, and whether or not Fukudome is deterred by the notion of playing in Ichiro’s shadow. You *know* he would be regarded as “That other japanese guy” by many, if not most fans of the franchise.
Still pulling for this one…there’s no good reason he can’t be part of this team.
November 11th, 2007 at 7:48 pm Quote
But technically if you go Jones/Fukudome in the OF you got 2 rookies right?
The reason I think they won’t be interested is because I believe they are perfectly comfortable running Ibanez out in the OF every day and plan to go with Ibanez/Ichiro/Jones in the OF.
Do I agree with that plan? Hell no, but that is my expectation, that way I can only be pleasantly suprised if it doesn’t happen and won’t be dissapointed when it does.
November 11th, 2007 at 8:14 pm Quote
I wouldn’t worry about the Cubs. The Mets beat the M’s offer on Johjima, but a lot of it has to do with creature comforts. Chicago isn’t a bad town, but most Japanese are going to prefer the west side, yo.
November 12th, 2007 at 12:47 am Quote
Maybe…but the Mariners have to tell Fukudome they want him to play there. They told Johjima they had interest and Johjima said “well slap my rump and call me Judy! Sign me up boss!” Fukudome might well say the same thing but the Mariners have to approach him first…that’s how it works in Japan.
November 13th, 2007 at 12:53 pm Quote
>>Considering that they could easily go up to $10-15m to get a starter and a reliever, and they won’t be dumping any of Sexson’s salary, I don’t see Fukudome fitting.
November 15th, 2007 at 3:37 pm Quote
Just watched an interview with Bavasi that is up on the Official site.
In this interview, Bavasi basically said that:
-Jones replacing Guillen is going to be the only change for position players (went on to list every player at their position, including Sexson 1B, Ibanez LF and Vidro DH)
-Horacio Ramirez is “not a lost cause” and is exactly the kind of pitcher on whom Mel can have a great impact
-Mariners willing only to move RP in trades (example: Soriano for Ramirez)
-Need to “find” one more SP
-Felix is responsible for anchoring the rotation next season
Sounds like this is going to be one boring winter. Kuroda should be the only move the M’s make…but y’all new this anyway!
November 15th, 2007 at 4:45 pm Quote
Le sigh.
November 15th, 2007 at 5:24 pm Quote
How exciting.. All i gathered from that is that Bavasi thinks Mel can have a great impact on pitchers who have no talent..
November 15th, 2007 at 5:27 pm Quote
I don’t think he actually thinks that and I don’t think HoRam is going to make the 2008 roster even if he gets an invite to ST. I just think he’s trying to be upbeat about a plan he doesn’t like (get one pitcher and hope to heaven that two of the existing options inprove on last year’s performance).
November 15th, 2007 at 5:37 pm Quote
Well it’s all his fault in the first place that he’s stuck in this predicament - Bavasi’s sunk millions upon millions of dollars into poor deals for guys who are Civics at their best, and the dead weight of this organization at their worst.
Trading only RP? Ok, then we’re not getting an SP in trade which means more back-of-rotation talent at premium FA dollars. I guess I’m ok with Sexson staying at 1B and (hopefully) rebounding when his bad luck dies out seeing as how nobody will take him even if we pay most of his $$, but leaving Vidro as sole DH and Ibanez in left? Leaving HoRam on the roster? Is this all one giant joke?
I’ve got a new explanation for Seasonal Affective Disorder in the Northwest - Bill Bavasi + Offseason = Gloom & Doom
November 15th, 2007 at 7:38 pm Quote
I don’t think HoRam is going to be on the roster on April 1st, guys. Calm yourselves.
We’re almost certain to land Kuroda at which point the Mariners will have to choose between Morrow, Rowland Smith and HoRam for SP5…you REALLY think you’re going to choose HoRam there? Cause I don’t. They stated categorically that they wanted to bring up Jones, Clement and Morrow into more important roles soon…Jones is the RF option, Clement will be bench bat #1 and Morrow will have the first crack at SP5.
November 15th, 2007 at 8:27 pm Quote
*I* wouldn’t slot HoRam over RRS, but I wouldn’t have traded Soriano for HoRam..nor would I have traded Snelling for Vidro. I’m not being snippity, but I’m obviously not on the same page as this FO.
November 15th, 2007 at 9:10 pm Quote
They decided they wanted HoRam for some mysterious reason in the first place. I think they’ll make HoRam prove, again, that he doesn’t deserve the spot.
November 15th, 2007 at 9:35 pm Quote
They’ve got plenty of standard fodder to surround him with on the PR front, too. “First year in the league..AL is tougher than NL..wasn’t comfortable with the transition..really likes Mel..working on his weight..added a pitch..blah blah”
I would honestly be surprised if he wasn’t in the opening day rotation.
November 15th, 2007 at 10:39 pm Quote
He’s not going to be in the opening rotation…no way on this earth is he going to make the rotation…and I’ll bet money on that (I won’t promise to eat my hat though…you guys took that one way too literally…LOL)
November 15th, 2007 at 10:39 pm Quote
That said…I agree that he will have to prove he’s useless one more time.
in SPRING TRAINING. That’s what ST is for.
November 15th, 2007 at 11:02 pm Quote
He would have to completely bomb ST in order to not make the opening day rotation. If he can manage to have two starts with a bunch of line drives hit right at guys they will say “See, Mel is already having a positive impact on him. He just needs to keep the ball down.”
November 16th, 2007 at 12:03 am Quote
I just don’t buy that.
November 16th, 2007 at 12:34 am Quote
I dont see how Morrow is an option for the #5 right out of camp.. I was probably naive in thinking last year in think he could be like Verlander if we just stretched him out for a couple weeks.. im goin with a more realistic approach this year, and I think he’s gonna have all types of problems unless he gets his 5-6 starts in Venezuela, a handful more in DY, and a good 10-15 starts down in Tacoma..
Ryan Rowland Smith.. I like the kid, but he’s never stuck in a rotation throughout the minors.. maybe that’s for a variety of reasons.. But he’s not a lock to look good in ST.. Meanwhile I could see Ramirez sticking around, working with Mel, having some success in ST, and fooling the clowns in charge that he is “fixed”… You know Bavasi is gonna give this guy an extra shot given how much heat he’s taken for making that trade..
As for Kuroda.. he’s only interesting to me because he brings some mystery.. that will have me tuning in and I’ll probably fool myself into thinking we had a potent rotation when we sign him and plug him into the 3rd or 4th hole.. However, nobody in the M’s blogoshere seems all that impressed with the guy.. and the scouts seem to think he’s barely MLB average.. But as I said, at least he brings some intrigue and mystery..
But we’re gonna end up in serious trouble rotation wise cause Im predicting poor seasons from Washburn and Batista.. if we are banking on them repeating their performance from a year ago, we’re gonna be deeply disappointed, IMO.. I say at least one of them is gonna totally implode.. Wash fatigues after about 2 months.. loses 4-5 mphs, and is stuck trying to outguile folks… Batista had like a career yr..
So I guess Bavasi is right when he says “Felix will be anchoring this staff”…
As for the offense… I know BB doesnt want to show his cards, but dont know how Sexson could ever suit up for Seattle again… and so much for the creative lineup juggling.. looks like we’re gonna run the same group out there, with the exception of JOnes for Guillen.. Dont know how an organization can fail to recognize that Ibanez is a gigantic liability defensively and needs to be moved off that position… You got a player like Fukodome available, who would be a great Safeco fit.. and it sounds like we have no interest..
I just dont get it.. go after this guy, stick him in LF, part with Sexson even if u have to eat most of his contract, get Vidro and Ibanez a first basemens mitt, and lets try to win something..
And finally, what is this about Clement being a bench option this year, and #1 bat off the bench.. is this a real rumor?? This is like Morrow last year but even worse.. Clement needs to catch and if he cant catch, then he needs to be in AAA working on his new position and getting ABs..
Sticking him on the bench is Bavasi’s weak attempt to show the fans and the baseball world that he’s not totally blowing these first round draft picks.. He sees all these other stud youngsters getting PT in the big leagues, and he feels the need to get his picks up, even if it means their development will be hampered or they will be used in incorrect roles..
Please Bill.. grow some u know what.. and keep Clement and Morrow in AAA…
November 16th, 2007 at 1:15 am Quote
Matt: allow me to clarify my position and the reasoning behind it. If you, me, Russ, taro, Dan, Jeff or any of the other regulars here were to run the org, there’s no way that HoRam is on the opening day 25 man, let alone in the rotation. It’s a ridiculously bad move to guarantee him anything, he’s got very little in the way of verifiable talent, and he was one of the five worst SP of the ‘07 campaign in either league. Not aaying he can’t be effective in some capacity, but a 1-4 SP he will never be, and a #5 he has not demonstrated the capacity to be during his time in Seattle.
All of that said, and I think we can all agree on the above paragraph in it’s general statement: the Mariners FO is inept when it comes to managing the team from a talent-first perspective. It has been as long as I’ve been following them, which is nearly a decade now. They are, and have been more concerned with the public image and perceived quality to their general fanbase. HoRam was supposed to be a young pitcher who we acquired at a moderately high cost to come in and help solidify the rotation, and he is anything but a stabilizing force. They can’t seem to admit these mistakes nearly quickly enough to maintain a competitive balance (or dare I suggest ‘edge?’) (See: Cirillo, Jeff; Speizio, Scott; Guardado, Eddie).
Bottom line: the M’s don’t do what is best for the W/L column, they do what they think their fans would want other than winning ballgames. This is why I will be surprised if HoRam is not in the opening day rotation. They’ve already started whispering about how Mel is gonna wave his Mazzone-wand ™ and fix him right up.
You or I make the call, he’s in AAA doing his best Cha Cha impersonation. Unfortunately (at least in this case), you or I don’t make the call.
November 16th, 2007 at 1:40 am Quote
NYM…do you have any logical basis other than the desire to predict doom and gloom so you won’t be disappointed if something goes wrong? Do you have any logically based argument that Washburn should fatigue after two months when the guy’s thrown bunches of innings in all but one of his big league seasons? Do you have some reason to call Batista’s season a career year? Given how right in line it is with the entire rest of his career?
November 16th, 2007 at 6:05 am Quote
Not to speak for NYM, (he’s capable of doing that quite well, IMO), but I’ll lend my two cents on why I think there is at least some reason for concern with Batista.
Saying he had a “career year” is a sllight misnomer given his FINAL stats, (ERA and ERA+). But, he won 16 games when his previous best was 11. He struck out 133 in the AL, (193 innings), when his previous AL complete season K max was 104 in 198 innings). So, at least a portion of his stat line was a pleasant surprise.
BEFORE the 2007 season, I had noted that due to his age, Batista would likely become increasingly inconsistent. Thankfully for the Ms, my predictions were off-base - but not as much as on might think. Batista posted an ERA over 7 in April and August. In June, July and September, his WORST month showed a 3.06 ERA. As comparison, excluding the 17 inning April, Felix’ best month was 3.05. Yet, Felix ended the season with an ERA 40 points better and an ERA+ of 110 compared to Batista’s 101.
Batista is a very SMART pitcher, but truth be told, his ability *IS* on the decline, and has been for a few years. He’s increasingly using his experience to overcome his eroding physical abilities. But there WILL come a point where the bad days start outnumbering the good days. Will that be 2008? Nobody can say with certainty. But could it be 2008? Absolutely.
Much has been discussed about the impact of defense behind a pitcher, and team defenses vary from season to season. But, let’s just look at a simple stat. The hits (plus/minus) compared to innings pitched. Here’s the Batista line over the last 7 years. (negative numbers are good - positive numbers mean more hits than innings pitched)
2001: (-26)
2002: (-12)
2003: +4
2004: +8 (AL)
2005: +6 (AL - relief)
2006: +25 (NL)
2007: +16 (AL)
Obviously, changing leagues makes a difference, as does throwing relief instead of starting. But the basic trend, (despite random fluctuations), is not good. And he’s 37 this season, (and being from the D.R. one really should be at least a little suspicious of how accurate that 37 really is).
In 2006 he was stellar for 4 months and sucked for 2, and ended up almost exactly at league average ERA. If he goes 3 months on and 3 months off — or, if he’s only “good” instead of “stellar” when he’s on, then his final numbers COULD take a major dive. The upside case could be that he remains as good when he’s “on”, but gets worse when he’s off, which could throw his personal totals into the gutter, while actually not hurting the team’s win total significantly.
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On Washburn, I’d have to disagree with NYM. He’s only 33 and is coming off his career worst for walks. He’s also had a career of up/down years. An ERA+ string of 141, 99, 97, 132 in the four years prior to Seattle demonstrates that inconsistency quite well. A slight reduction in walks is likey - and with it, a slightly better season is pretty reasonable. What he needs mostly is improved defense behind him. He’s not gonna be getting any Cy Young votes, but I could easily envision a plus season for him in 2008.
November 16th, 2007 at 11:19 am Quote
Regarding Washburn.. i will attempt to take the time to find some numbers, but going off purely my eyes and recollection of his past two seasons.. there is significant velocity drop in his heater after the first few months.. Guy is running it up 92-93 in April/May.. and is down at 87-89 during the summer.. I believe we even discussed this in his thread.. I call that arm fatigue and he’s pitches with that fatigue for much of the summer.. sometimes he’ll dial it back for a month in the middle there.. but June-Sept with Wash is usually watching him try to battle with a mid to upper 80s fastball, and a bunch of other slop.. With increasing age, and the fact that we saw that at 80 or 90 pitches or w/e it was, he basically implodes every game.. I dont think his career numbers are gonna get any better, and IMO they are probably going to start declining very soon..
That’s just my opinion, and it maybe not supported with the stats, but I think this guy is going to be walking a thin line as he gets older and that 90-93 mph fastball that he shows for half his starts, becomes 87-88 for all his starts..
November 16th, 2007 at 12:02 pm Quote
OK…I agree with both of your guys’ logic but not your conclusions.
1) Sandy, yes Batista is old enough now where inconsistency is going to become increasingly likely BUT…the reason his K rate went up was not simply luck as you imply. His K rate went up because he was a smart pitcher pitching to a smart catcher. Johjima RAVES about Batista because despite his lack of consistent command of his pitches, he is smart enough to work a strategy when he gets a catcher that knows how to do this. As a Blue Jay, he pitched to completely inept catchers…the Jays haven’t had a good one since Pat Borders got old. And I don’t think the D’Backs have had a game-calling master back their either. Batista is the rare kind of pitcher that a catcher can influence (I strongly believe that after watching him pitch all year). I do think he will decline with age, but Batista didn’t have a career year simply because he won 16 games. He had a very representative year other than the slightly higher K rate…but pitched for a team with a great bullpen (most of the year anyway) and a well above average offense. He got better run support and better runner strand rates and the result was 16 wins.
I think you will see Batista’s K rate come back down a little, but the Mariners still have a good solid bullpen so he’s still going to get a lot of help and unless Adam Jones is a complete bust, the offense is still going to back him…I don’t expect Batista to suddenly implode which was the implication NYM was making.
2) I am well aware that Washburn loses velocity in June-August, but that was true this year, last year and the year before that…why would the same exact pattern yield far worse results as you implied NYM? I think Washburn will be Washburn…he’s not old enough yet where I’d expect to see a sudden implosion from him either.
November 16th, 2007 at 12:31 pm Quote
Interesting theory NYM.
In glancing first at his CAREER stats - the breakdown per month doesn’t match your theory. By month, his opponent OPS line goes:
Month CAR - 2007
Apr: .761 - .579
May: .695 - .660
Jun: .776 - .878
Jul: .755 - .740
Aug: .731 - .913
Sep: .738 - .730
Two of his best three months “career” are August and September. His best career ERA months coincide mostly May (3.36), Aug (3.97), July (4.00).
But, in 2007, he had two HORRIBLE months - June and August. Though, his ERA in BOTH of those months never broke the 6.00 barrier, (while Batista TWICE broke seven).
It was NOT a downward spiral. It was a hot start, followed by alternating good and bad months by and large.
What I like to do is ask myself “if X perception/theory is true, what would I EXPECT to see happen stat-wise?” If a player loses his velocity AND that velocity is integral to his success, I would expect a drop in Ks, a rise in walks, and a likely rise in HRs, and more than likely a worsening hits per inning comparison.
In 2006, Washburn was +11 hits to inning and was +8 in 2007. No appreciable movement, expecially since he was +7 his final VERY GOOD season in Anaheim. His K total went up from 103 to 114 (7 more innings), which is a nominal increase, though not really significant. His HRs allowed total dropped from 25 to 23. Fewer HRs in more innings is a definite plus. In the end, he only had one stat which moved significantly - and that was a jump from 55 to 67 in walks, (a career worst).
Okay, a rise in walks “could” be a result of nibbling more if your stuff is getting worse. But Washburn has always been a ‘let them hit it’ kind of pitcher. He’s never had “great” stamina - with his previous two best seasons being 206 and 207 innings in 32 starts. The 194 he got in 2007 may be a bit lower than normal, but Seattle had an other-worldly bullpen, which encourages quick hooks.
I think what happened is that his start was SO good that expectations colored perceptions thereafter. In looking at his game logs for 2007, one only has to view his pitch counts to see that he didn’t have a “bad” game until June 1st. That was the first time he was under 99 pitches.
But he had only 3 games all season where he failed to complete 5 innings. Two of those were in June and one more on August 31st. (Odd side note: In viewing the logs I realized in August he had six starts and gave up 1,2,3,4,5, and 6 earned runs, (though not in that order - his first two starts were 4 and 5 ERs, followed by 1,2,3 and then finished with a 6 — definitely a strange string).
I suppose the irony of this is that Washburn HAS been inconsistent over his career, so a swing in either direction wouldn’t be surprising. Meanwhile, Batista has generally been very consistent in most aspects from year to year, yet it is Batista that I feel is more likely to have a significant downward move in 2008. That, of course, is what makes player projection so much fun. There are soooo many variables that it is quite easy to latch on to this or that one and create a plausible argument for almost anything.
In this case, I see Batista already in the clutches of a very slow late-career fade. I see Washburn as just another year in a semi-erratic career.
November 16th, 2007 at 12:44 pm Quote
Good stats Sandy.. My opinion of Wash may be the result of that great April/May he posted last year.. and then the gradual return to his usual numbers including some really rough months that offset the above average numbers he posted in those first two months.. Combine that with the loss of velocity u saw after those first two months, and I guess my fear is that with age, we’re gonna see a pitcher who levels off in that .730-.770 area, while still having a couple rough months each year.. Basically, the semi-dominant Washburn we see at times will become a thing of the past..
Anyway, Im probably jumping the gun on a him a little bit, as he isn’t that old that a downhill trend is definite for 2008
November 16th, 2007 at 5:30 pm Quote
Word from MLB.com is that Fukudome could stay in Japan, as he just received an offer from the Yamayuri Giants.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071116&content_id=2301689&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp
This whole situation with Fukudome has been really weird. Here is a guy who seems to fit perfectly with this team, but the FO has zero interest. Something must have come from on high or from Ichiro to have caused such disinterest.
November 16th, 2007 at 7:45 pm Quote
Or…the Mariners didn’t pursue him because he didn’t really want to leave Japan?
November 17th, 2007 at 4:16 am Quote
Fukudome will take the highest bid in Japan or highest bid in US.
In such case M’s FO is uninterested.