BTW, Dr. Naka pointed out at SportSpot that Ichiro is on pace to smash the all-time record for batted balls caught by a center fielder.
Safeco does nice things for center fielders, but come on. We're talking 50 more putouts than Richie Ashburn caught in his best year. We're talking 100 more putouts than Andruw Jones' best season!
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Q. Is it because he sprints over to straightaway LF to take balls from Raul?
A. That happens every once in a while. Ibanez' range factor is down by 80, 100 points. Ichiro is taking about 1 in 10 of "Raul's" fly balls, which is to say, one every five games.
Ichiro is catching 3.71 fly balls per game, compared to the league average of about 2.7 (check me on that).
Mike Cameron, in Safeco, caught 2.58, 2.81, 2.72, and 3.32 per game in center in his four years there.
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Q. How's his ZR?
A. According to ESPN, Ichiro is catching 93.1% of all batted balls hit into his area. Typical for a real good center fielder is about 89%. Darin Erstad, in the league for his glove, is also at 93.1%; Curtis Granderson is at 88.3%. Gary Matthews Jr. is at 82.5%.
With defense, you try to look at a whole bunch of stuff, since any one stat can be misleading. Zone Rating agrees generally that Ichiro is a Gold Glover out there, which is as far as you want to use that stat.
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Q. Other stats?
A. Baseball Prospectus' RATE has him at a phenomenal 115. In 2006, it had him at exactly the same 115 for his CF work.
In 2006, David Pinto's PMR had Ichiro as spectacularly better than the rest of the league in CF.
You can keep going. Whatever numbers you use, Ichiro's going to show up as a spectacular CF.
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Q. What does he look like to you?
A. He's not quite as fast as some of the track guys out there, but he is a far better baseball player than they are. He's the guy you want teaching outfield technique to the world.
Richie Ashburn, maybe one of the best defensive players of all time, was in the same mold — not Claudell Washington-fast, but very fast, and a great baseball player with the leather on his hand.
I see Ichiro as this generation's Richie Ashburn — a great defensive CF who has plus speed and plus-plus instincts/technique.
He's the game's best defensive CF, I'm sure.
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Q. How will his defense age?
A. James pointed out 20 years ago that, counter to intuition, fast players age better than slow ones.
Kenny Lofton kept the same RF's in CF until he passed age 37. That's exactly what I'd expect from Ichiro: maintain his current level of defense through age 37.
Last year at 32, folks expected Ichiro to lose a tick… they were "surprised" when Ichiro's speed score (triples, SB's, SB%, R, etc) was his highest ever.
C'mon. Did Rickey get slow at 33? :- )
Ichiro is as light on his feet as any athlete you'll ever see; at 33, he bounces when he runs, like a gazelle. He'll run very well at least until the age of 37. More like 40.
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Q. Ichiro in Safeco?
A. Everybody considered Mike Cameron a Gold Glove-quality CF'er. Put Mike Cameron in Safeco and you got very nice stats.
Put Ichiro in Safeco and you get an all-time record. 'kay?
If Ichiro weren't a batting champ, if he were a .220 hitter, he'd be an impact player as a glove specialist.
What I don't get, is why amigos who talked so emphatically about the need for defense in previous years, aren't all over this one. If you ever valued defense, you'd want to break your back to keep this guy in center.
Cheers,
Dr D
March 16th, 2008 at 6:00 pm Quote
Hey doc. mlb posted a list of most talent players on the mlb look who’ the poster player.
http://tampabay.rays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080313&content_id=2423760&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
March 17th, 2008 at 4:53 am Quote
I think what I like most about this post is how dramatically it demonstrates the folly of reading too much into 1 or 2 month stat pools.
Stat - May - YearEnd
RF — 3.71 — 2.90
ZR — 93.1% - 86.7%
PO — 584 — 424
The “perception” of defense has always (and continues to be) rather stilted. To be good defensively, first you have to LOOK GOOD defensively. Then, you have to not make errors. If those two things are true, then “all these other stats really don’t mean much, because the actual plays made are due to the pitchers out there.”
That largely sums up how defense has been viewed for a century. And despite the efforts to introduce defensive stats like RF, ZR, UZR, etc. - the number of times you appear on Web Gems ends up being more important in getting widely accepted as a defensive whiz.
Ichiro did end up tied with Granderson for most POs, (though Granderson got his 424 in 54 fewer innings). And while six CFs ended up with ZRs above .900, Ichiro’s final ZR of .867 ranked 15th among qualifying CFs - beating out only three full-time guys - Bill Hall, Gary Matthews and ironically, Andruw Jones.
The somewhat maligned (by this article) Cameron ended up with an .877 ZR.
In the end, I think we’re still a long leap away from a good defensive metric or defensive understanding. I think the relation between defense and pitching is *MUCH* more complex than current efforts make it out to be. Don’t get me wrong. I think they ARE worth examining - but take every one with a grain of salt. I only get excited when they all start agreeing on something. It’s sort of like having multiple weather models. When A says: “Snow” and B says “Clear” you shrug. When they both say “Rain” then you go get an umbrella.
But, it IS important to understand that *EVERY* stat suffers from small sampling. It’s rarely helpful to get overly caught up in 1 or sometime even 2 month stat pools. Streaks and slumps (and random fluctuation) are not predictable.
It’s also helpful to note that in “most” cases, when a player has a start that is so mind-boggling good - (the projection of 584 POs) - that it is almost a guarantee that this is a statistical abberation and said player WILL regress toward the mean.