Sandy takes a comprehensive look at Bavasi's career, starting from Day One, and finds some interesting syndromes.

Sandy is just about the only person on the Seattle 'net who brings objectivity.  He has no positions that he's married to, no predictions to justify, no organizations to audition for.  What he does have is a familiarity with the way baseball is done right — in Atlanta — and a fresh perspective.

We have another article from Sandy in our hip pocket, too.  Thanks amigo! - Dr D

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Premise: Bavasi was a terrible judge of talent, and therefore was the right man to fire. This is a view that is at this point generally accepted as truth by many in the blog-o-sphere. Why I disagree.

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In an effort to bring some joy back to DOV in this dark, dismal season, I thought I wouldbring the fantasy baseball talk back for a bit.

I am dissatisfied with standard rotisserie scoring categories (ERA/WHIP/K/W/Sv, BA/HR/RBI/R/SB) because they leave out a huge chunk of the real aspects of building an actual baseball team.  I'm sure I'm not the only person who feels somewhat cheated by the standard 5X5.  I believe fantasy baseball statistics of choice should force you to:

• a) Use good platoon players and have roster flexibility
• b) Use closers and set-up men in equal measure
• c) Play your players at their correct positions as much as possible (I don't like how people game the system and five starts from Travis Hafner at first base change his value from "good" to WOW!")
• d) Prevent you from biasing your roster toward players with lots of playing time over better players with slightly less playing time (not too many counting stats, not too many rate stats)
• e) Punish you for building an incomplete roster

The standard 5X5 fails to reward players for taking walks, fails to punish players for being bad fielders, includes only one rate stat…the least important one available…makes middle relievers and set-up men worthless, is missing one of the three DIPS categories completely, and in general forces players to focus on the teams from which the players come, almost to the exclusion of focusing on actual talent (ERA, WHIP, W, Sv, RBI and R are all heavily team dependent).

Now if I had my druthers, fantasy baseball would be about real win value, not about one-fashioned component stats, but let's limit our search for statistical categories to those available at the big free fantasy sites.

For hitters, I propose this initial pair of categories: Total Bases and OBP.  If you multiply those two together, you get Runs Created.  There's balance there between playing time (TB) and performance (OBP) and no aspect of batting is missed.  On top of that, I recommend either both SB and SB% or neither (because speed needs to be intelligent speed to matter in the scorebook)…preferably both and not neither.

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I like Johnny Mac and it's probable that he could succeed in some other situation.

Just the same, the manager's #1 job is to keep the troops in the right state-of-mind.  This is a team with talent, and it has the worst record in the majors.  That underperformance is definitely because of the team's state-of-mind.

Since Lou, the Mariners have been obsessive about getting "the opposite kind" of manager.  The GM's and managers have been those that have been pleasant for Howard and Chuck to work with, and those that present well on camera.

Rule of thumb:  when the inmates have taken over the asylum, you need to bring in a manager whose authority and presence can dig up the entrenched comfort zones.

In-game tactics are not what make the difference, amigos.  Picking a different lineup is what the casual fans talk about.  Real managers put their teams in fighting trim, and they make the right calls on talent (such as Brandon Morrow's). 

Bright spot dept:  a new manager almost automatically sees through the blind spots the last manager had.  One manager loves to run, and neglects power, a new manager will immediately bolster the power.  

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Off-topic warning…news on the Pacific Northwest has been disturbing me for many years but I just had to throw a comment up here on something about which I read today.  If you folks don't want me talking about anything other than baseball, I'll bare that in mind in the future.

I pledge allegiance,
to the flag,
of the United States of America.
And to the republic,
for which it stands -
one nation, under God, indivisible -
with liberty and justice for all.

Story here: http://www.katu.com/news/19748774.html

What the flying frog is so gosh darned insulting about that? Now this isn't something that's completely exclusive to the Northwest, but it's a symptom of a problem that no one else in this nation experiences on the same level as you folks out there in the drizzle.  Some of you who live in this bastion of ultra-liberalism - could you please explain what is in the air and water out there that causes an educator in Portland, Oregon to believe that the highlighted words are "disrespectful to Muslims?"

Correct me if I'm wrong, but…uh…don't the Muslims believe in one God?  Well slap my butt and call me Shirley…THEY DO!  Says so right here in my free copy of the Koran!  They call him Allah, but there he is…one God.

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Larry Stone did a plus-plus job with his list of GM candidates.  You go Larry.

D-O-V quickcrunches, excerpts from Stone's fine column.  This isn't really analysis.  It's just chat:

Pat Gillick:  "Right now, I think this is probably the end for me," he said. "I might change my mind at the end of the year. But I'm really not thinking anything except trying to win this thing."

See previous article.  He'd have about as much chance of turning this thing around, short-term, as Chuck Knox and Bill Parcells used to have with new NFL teams.   If your goal is simplified, if you just want to win 90 with this payroll, as fast as possible, you're good with a Gillick appointment.

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=== "It'll be okay, right?" … "Ummmm, let's hope" Dept. ===

"Change is in order." Lincoln said. "We have determined new leadership is needed in the GM position. With a new leader will come a new plan and a new approach. A search will begin immediately for a permanent GM, and Lee will be a candidate for the position."

Let's hope.

At times a world-class chess Grandmaster will play an internet game "vs. the world," with the world led by several grandmasters but also accepting the input of a huge flotilla of regular tournament chessplayers.

In these situations, "the world" has an ELO skill rating of 2100, compared to the Grandmaster's rating of 2700 — meaning that a huge committee of hardcore players is three (3) sigmas/standard deviations less effective than the Grandmaster. 

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I spent a couple of hours last night - following the Mariners game (they got OWNED by the very club I recently used an example of a team run even worse than they are) - trying to remember why I became a Mariners fan back in my salad days.  I went through several possible explanations and rejected them.

• Geography: I saw my first major league baseball game at the Kingdome and immediately became interested in baseball statistics and baseball cards.  But I went through a lot of fads as a kid…periods where I was irrationally interested in something silly like WWF wrestling or watching the weather channel to see how high the highest temperature in the country would be on day five or playing the California Raisins video game or "Think Quick" on my classic Epson II-E computer.  These things came and went in seasons and we moved to Virginia just over a year after my first Mariners game.  No, there was something special about Seattle baseball that kept my interest even from hundreds of miles away, and it was not my early interest in statistics.
• Superstar players: Yes, my first teams had Randy Johnson, Ken Griffey Jr, Alex Rodriguez etc, but there are superstar players everywhere and they don't catch my attention.  The Orioles, the closest team to my new home in VA carried the liked of Rafael Palmeiro, Mike Mussina, and of course, Cal Ripken, whom I very much respect.
• Dave Niehaus: I used to struggle to keep my dial-up internet service stable enough so that the stream audio of his radio broadcasts would come through without interruption.  I loved his catch phrases and the color and passion in his voice…but I missed the best years of Niehaus and by the time game-day audio became routinely available (1996 or so) I was already a diehard Mariner fan.
• Refuse to Lose: 1995 made life long fans out of a lot of today's blog rats…and yes, it was probably the single most glorious moment of my life's time spent watching baseball, but I was a die-hard fan long before Edgar's double.  That's what made it so special…the team overcame seemingly impossible odds time and time again and I saw the whole season play out (well…as much as possible given that I lived in Virginia and game-day audio was difficult to get).
• Underdog: The Mariners have never really been considered the class of the AL West.  And given my hatred for the Yankees, that would seem like a logical explanation for some of it…but they're the underdog today and something has changed.  And there are plenty of other underdog franchises out there.

Then I remembered something about my earliest full season as a Mariners fan (1993).  In early September, the team was hanging in there in the AL West race and they ran a commercial spot: "Why should you watch?"  They listed some of the facts about this surprising team: "Top five in the AL in pitching strikeouts, only six games back in the AL West, Ken Griffey's pursuit of his first 40 HR season etc"…but the one I remember: "Top defense in the American League" with a slow motion highlight of Omar Vizquel diving into the hole and sucking up a grounder like a hoover and throwing from full extension while he was still sliding away from first.  It was a thing of beauty to see many times over before Mariners games.

I grew up with Mariners teams that may have been a little short on overall talent…especially the back of their rotations and the some of their relief pitchers…and may have had a tiny payroll…and may have had trouble developing young pitchers…but they played the game with joy and they did all of the things professional baseball players should do…from fluid, dynamic defense to patient intelligent hitting to converting the little plays and the favorable situations.  They were a HARD .500 team in 1993…probably had the talent of a .460 club but they got the most out of it.

Because of the early Mariners, I grew up loving long at bats that were a battle of wits between Edgar Martinez or Ken Griffey Jr. and the opposing pitcher.  I grew up loving the beauty of a well executed double play or a diving catch in the gap.  I grew up wanting to see my guys draped over the dugout railing screaming at the umpire or the opposing pitcher during a key at bat.  They made baseball seem like the best game on Earth.  A lot of the credit for that comes from having Lou Piniella as the manager…his refusal to accept failure or laziness imprinted on his teams.

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Kelly sez,

So Doc have you had a chance to watch Felix pitch this year? His stat-line is interesting. If you look at the sabre friendly stats, he is having a poor year. His strike outs are down slightly, his walks up (almost 1 a game), his GB/FB ratio is down significantly (from 2.64 to 1.68), and his line drive rate is up (from 16% to 20.5%). Nonetheless, and his ERA to date is down by over a run over last year…BUT is home run rate per FB has been halved.

So what is going on here? If I remember Dave Cameron correctly, BABIP is usually about 11% above the line drive rate. In 2007, Felix’ BABIP-LD_rate was 0.176, while so far in 2008 it is 0.098. Has there been an enormous change in Felix’ good fortune? Is the M’s infield defense so hideous that the change GB/FB ratio has driven a significant improvement in BABIP? Or has he finally learned to not challenge all hitters?

I mean fewer Ks, more BB, more FB, more line drives, but better results so far…what gives?

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