BAD NEWS:  The Angels are better than the Mariners are.

GOOD NEWS:  We knew that.  

2007 wasn't going to be the M's year, anyway, not under the circumstances.  They are moving strongly north (not that kind of north!) and 2007 should be viewed as icing on the cake in a (generally) successful rebuild.

No, I'm not Howie's press guy.  :- )  But if you're an M's fan trying to enjoy the local baseball scene, you've got to pause and take a look at what Howie's offering.

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In the Tillman thread (see Hottest Groks), there is yet another interesting debate on the 'risk' involved in 'over-challenging' Christ Tillman.  As Tuiasosopo, Clement, and others were over-challenged in their day…

Cool Papa sez,

I’ll also reiterate just how profoundly wrong [amigos] were when they panned his promotion not just as a wrong choice, but an absolute disaster that could not be defended. I’m of the belief that when faced with adversity, people tend to rise to the challenge.

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Alternate title department:

John McLaren gets schooled by a real manager.  See also I Sincerely Hope McLaren isn't the Long Term Solution.

In All Fairness:

I've been very patiently observing McLaren for months now, trying to get an idea for what he represents philosophically.  Before I spell out what I believe I've observed, let me throw out a few caveats.

1. We will cheerfully admit that a lot of what McLaren is doing right now is motivated by his desire to NOT take the blame for Seattle missing the post-season on his watch because he's trying to secure a job.
2. We will also concede that Ichiro's love for Mac is worth considering when handing out contracts this off-season.
3. Finally, we know that most of a manager's success or failure is not linked to his tactical moves.  His ability to unite a clubhouse in the quest for wins and get the most out of his players counts for a lot.

What I've observed:

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Comments only at this point, but I'm fishing for your reaction to the idea of picking up Weaver longer term.

Some factoids to chew on:  since returning from the DL, Weaver's thrown 14 starts, averaging a little more than 7 innings per start, and posting a .254 BAA (not including today's start), going 6-4 with a 3.38 ERA and a nearly 3 K/BB.

The way I view it now, he's working hard, unlike his well earned prior bad rep, he's mixing speeds and hitting the corners as well as any Mariner and better than Felix Hernandez.  (Felix is a better pitcher, but that's all power and talent)  He attacks the hitters, you can't chase him from the strike zone, and he has enough guile in his multiple arm angles and wrinkles in his pitches to keep you from squaring anything up.

Is he getting lucky?  His BABIP is around .285 since the injury, and that's a well earned .285 in my book.  I don't view it as a big case of good luck, and this is becoming more than just a nice run.  Half a season of 3.38 ERA inning eating performance makes me think he's doing something very right.

I'm in favor of signing him to a 3 year, 27 million dollar contract even though he's not exactly a S&S hero at that price.  I'd like to get your guys' thoughts on that. 

Sez NY Mariner:

Felix was pulled after only 84 pitches tonight..

Weaver was also pulled a little quick last nite..

Those two occurences and the fact that McLaren noted that Batista (after his Minnesota 50 pitch outing) would be “very fresh” for his next start.. has me believing McLaren is really geared up for this Angels series..

To the point where he wants all three of those guys to have a lot of bullets in the chamber for the Halos..

Speaking of fresh, this NYM amigo has a hawkeye for stuff like this, don't he?

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Comments thread.  How 'bout you tell us, how great the M's are :- ) especially their bats especially in Arlington.

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1.  Since the All-Star Break, Felix' peripherals are the same they were before.  He's still got terrific K BB HR profile, and is still trotting along at a 4.00 ERA at Safeco.  He hasn't made a whole lot of progress, we hafta say.  We'll tell you when he is, whattaya say.

Too many dumb pitches, dumb because overconfident, but Miguel is giving him the scoop.  Challenge the little guys, outsmart the guys who can hurt you.  He'll learn.  

Has no track record against the Rangers that matters, except for one guy, Michael Young, who rakes Felix. 

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Much ado made about Billy Beane taking a flier on Frank Thomas last year, and getting a .270/.385/.545 year out of him on the cheap.  Hey, man, why can't the M's ever do that?

Jose Guillen's OPS+ is soaring — it's up to 121, actually a little higher than his big year for Anaheim in 2004.  

Jose's .290/.360/.456 line is depressed by Safeco — his home numbers are lower than his road numbers.  But not by much; Jose doesn't allow the park to intimidate him. 

He is just a tough dude.  Mentally.  He hits in Texas and in Safeco, he hits good pitchers and bad, hits in blowouts and in tight games.  Well, actually, no, he doesn't hit in blowouts.  He only hits when it matters, like Eddie Murray.  (Check his performance in close games vs games > 4 runs lead.)

The value of Jose's batting performance in Safeco, is the same as if he were hitting .308/.381/.510 in a neutral park like Cleveland.

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… if they play .500, winning 20 and losing 20 the rest of the way, that is.

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Did you expect that?   Here is what PECOTA expected:

Record: 73-89
Runs Scored: 758
Runs Allowed: 838
AVG/OBP/SLG: .275/.331/.428

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