Justin Lehr is a hot topic in the blog-o-sphere today, and now in our comments threads.

Lehr does have GB's and K's and that makes him interesting.  When Sean Green came up last year, amigos waxed ecstatic about his GB rate …. Dr. D, leaning against the fence post, chewed on a piece of hay and said, "give him a month."  We were wrong; it was two weeks.  Groundballs are not The Third Outcome.  

But GB's plus K's, now that is a different subject, as we've been sermonizing since the Green escapade.  Lehr has some of both. 

From the pic, we're guessing he has a splitter.  :- )  Stock approach would be to pound the knees with the sinking fastball, and get them fishing in the dirt with the splitter.  It's a very effective, and it's an approach you can execute on a game-in, game-out basis.

Whether that's his approach or not, his PCL K rates indicate that Lehr obviously has some offspeed pitch he's getting pleny of K's on. 

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The Mariners are reportedly interested in Luis Gonzalez as the solution to the lefty side of the DH platoon…or as a left fielder with Ibanez DHing or playing RF (Snelling to DH?).

At 39, and long after the steroids have worn off, Gonzalez still gets on base and plays a surprisingly passable defensive left field:

PCA Offensive Analysis: 

Quick note here.  2006 values are estimated using back of the envelop calculations that approximate PCA offensive wins making assumptions about the environment in which his numbers occured.  I find my estimates are usually off by less than +/- 5% when I try them on seasons for which I do have data. 

OPS Differential (vs LHP - vs RHP)

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John Hickey makes it a little tough to read whether he is passing along info, or floating his own idea:

… the White Sox seem willing to let Freddy Garcia go.

It once seemed unthinkable the Mariners would be willing to trade for Garcia, having dealt him to the White Sox in 2004 when he was deemed to be too costly.

But in the current environment, it seems Garcia, who has one year left on his contract at about $9 million, is beginning to look good to the Mariners as the pool of free agent pitchers dries up. For one thing, Mariners starter Felix Hernandez idolizes Garcia, a good friend. For another, Garcia was a steady winner during his time in Seattle.

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In Case You Missed It:

For those of you who havben't been reading every post, desperately striving to soak up every ounce of my genius - for shame!! (heh)  No seriously, in the Gary Matthews Jr. thread, discussion broke out about PCA (Pythagorean Comparative Analysis)'s fielding analysis as it relates to other systems you're all probably a lot more familiar with and to common sense.

Doc axed me for a little more info on the standard defensive win rates by PCA for each of the positions on the diamond.  To which I replied:

Wins per 162 Equivalent Games at Each Position (All Time Averaged)

• P: 1.31
• C: 1.91
• 1B: 1.59
• 2B: 3.15
• 3B: 1.98
• SS: 2.99
• LF: 1.96
• CF: 2.74
• RF: 2.17

At which point, I fielded about five different questions simultaneously, because evidently, my positional averages are a little unusual.  Whodathunkit?  Me, unusual?

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Have a few Q's in comment #23. If a 'net expert out there can take a crack at answering, we'd be much obliged. :- ) -Dr D

Dr. D's aikido/baseball analysis of Tim Lincecum's pitching movement

Dr. D's sabermetric analysis of Tim Lincecum 

List of current ML pitching stars 6' and shorter 

 

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I wouldn't have given Matthews that much — maybe 3 x $8m, fourth year vested, if I were desperate, and that only in view of market realities –

But Gary Matthews Jr is a lot better than the 4th OF that people think he is.  Matthews has become a very fine ML ballplayer.

. 

Q.  John from NY:  You Can NOT be SERious.  You are a complete waste of a human being, Doc!

Pick one:

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Let's say you're playing keeper roto.  You're offered a swap, Carlos Lee for Richie Sexson, neutral parks, salary not considered.  Do you make that trade?

Sexson and Lee are an obvious comp pair.  Do you remember the strict definition of "comparable player"?  It means you could trade these two players, without making either team better, and perhaps without causing a big position-shuffle problem.

It means if they were traded, nobody would win, and nobody would be inconvenienced much.

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Take out a #2 pencil and a clean sheet of paper, kiddies.  The correct opening line to the POTD on Sarge Jr's $50m deal is:

1) Well, it's not a particularly silly signing, is it.  It's just a five-stride limp with a half twist.. .

A particularly silly signing would be rather more like, the Richie Sexson signing

2a) All arguments in favor of this contract break down once you apply any logic at all.  This of course is why troglodytes would disagree:  they haven't evolved the logic gene  (First line explicitly from BP; second line implicitly from BP)

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