Here’s an interesting question from the ITP board:

Cameron of U.S.S. Mariner believes that Nageotte may have as much upside as Papelbon. Bazardo’s upside might be as high as Papelbon’s and Lester’s.

The point is well taken: IF Clint Nageotte’s career were an UNBROKEN string of performances like 2001, 2003, and 2005 (Tacoma only), AND if Nageotte had a good solid debut in the majors … THEN Nageotte would be exactly EQUAL TO Papelbon in value.

When Clint Nageotte is at his best, he is equal to Jon Papelbon as a prospect. If Nageotte had never had any results other than his 2003 results, then he WOULD be a Grade A prospect.

When readers hear, “Papelbon isn’t any more talented than Nageotte” … that is TRUE but NOT ACCURATE. People take it to mean, “Papelbon is nothing special.” What it in fact means, is that at times, Nageotte has been the dominating pitching prospect that Jon Papelbon is.

View article …

Q: Do the White Sox want to trade Jose Contreras?

A: With six legit SP’s, all of whom seem to be paid twice what they’re worth, the White Sox are “willing to listen to offers if somebody overwhelms us for Jose.” Translation: somebody make us an offer! The bank forecloses Tuesday!”

Gratuitous Jon Garland shot: Yes, he was the poster boy for “lucky 18-win seasons.” Garland’s translated K rate was below five and he wound up having a Mike Mussina season (18-10, 3.50).

Q: All I remember about Contreras was his imploding with the Yankees. Can he pitch?

A: Contreras is a “volatile” pitcher whose natural ability is 2-3 starter … but he goes wayyyyyyy up to Cy Young level and wayyyyyyyy down to barely-#5SP level.

View article …

edit to add … I loved Justin's comment in the Iraq Photos thread (see video & media)…

Dr. D,

I too would prefer for you to limit your topics to Mariners-related issues. The space used to discuss the war and the Super Bowl would have been better allocated toward major Mariners news of late such as the Vina signing and Bloomquist extension.

Although voicing this complaint took more time than scrolling past your “off topic” posting, I am hoping it shall prove to be a worthwhile investment and restrain you from daring to freely express your opinions on your own nonprofit personal blog in the future.

back to the original post …

View article …

Outstanding pitch-by-pitch at this SABR site: baseballanalysis.com

On August 16, Papelbon went 5.0 ip against the Tigers (2r, 6h, 2bb, 0hr, 6k). The long and the short of it: Papelbon pounded the strike zone with a moving FB that sat at 94 mph and touched 98 mph, ocasionally mixing in his splitfinger for (frequently called) strikes.

The young Curt Schilling and Bartolo Colon were among the many examples of young RH pitchers who moved their fastballs around the strike zone in power attacks.

Again we’ll mention that Jon Papelbon’s first two months in the majors were very successful: 34k in 34ip, with a 2.65 ERA despite pitching in Fenway Park.

Good info there,
Dr D

Lotsa work left to do to get the posts looking spiff …

And all kindsa weirdness we’ll see in the meantime … sorry in advance

That said, Wolfy is again doing the impossible, porting over posts *with comments and pics* as well as all of the pos-i-tron graphics and even upgrades, all in just a few days … can’t thank y’enough Wolfster!

Jeff

Jeff Sullivan has, as usual, an interesting and even-handed assessment of the Reed-Boston rumors: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/

In Jeff’s usual way, he analyzes in the literal sense of the term: he breaks the problem down into component parts where they can clearly be seen.

He starts with the upside of each player; we’ll kibitz a little just for fun:

Reed: Rusty Greer in CF
Papelbon: “a really good #2″ — we’ll suggest that Kevin Millwood fits this profile (and Papelbon’s upside) better than does, say, John Lackey.
Lester: LL describes an Opening Day starter “with close encounters with the Cy” … let’s say the young Zito.

Then LL gives its own take on the mid-range for each player:

View article …

Here are the 2006 projections from the Bill James Handbook. Jason Churchill did us a fave and typed them all in for us.

Note that these projections are NOT done by James himself, as is stated in the book, but the projections are fun because they’re done by a third party. Nobody is going to accuse these projections as being homer-age.

As we’ll explain in a second, if the 2006 M’s were to hit the targets projected by the James Handbook, the club would have a very good offense:

Ichiro Suzuki - .326/.374/.431, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 45 BB, 63 K — .806 OPS
Jeremy Reed - .294/.363/.412, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 48 BB, 58 K — .775 OPS
Adrian Beltre - .274/.331/.479, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 41 BB, 90 K — .810 OPS
Richie Sexson - .260/.357/.521, 37 HR, 112 RBI, 77 BB, 158 K — .878 OPS
Raul Ibanez - .279/.346/.444, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 55 BB, 90 K — .789 OPS
Jose Lopez - (337AB) .264/.295/.418, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 12 BB, 44 K — .714 OPS
Carl Everett - .264/.336/.448, 14 HR, 64 RBI, 28 BB, 67 K — .785 OPS
Yuniesky Betancourt - (209 AB) .273/.309/.397, 3 HR, 21 RBI, — .706 OPS
Chris Snelling - (394 AB) .317/.387/.470, 10 HR, 56 RBI, 45 BB, 66 K — .857 OPS

View article …

Team OPS = Season Runs Scored?

Cameron noticed an interesting pattern that if a team’s OPS is 750, that it will score about 750 runs in 162 games. If true, and it is probably loosely true, it makes teamwide analysis very simple.

Simplifying numbers is the concept behind Win Shares, for example — it allows you to look at more macro issues.

Dr. D has used OPS+ constantly when scanning year-to-year team changes for macro patterns. I’ll be interested in seeing how well this little device works out, when reviewing historical teams. Good stuff.

And good read at ussmariner.com.

=================================

View article …