The Root Cause of the M’s Poor 2007 DER (Part 4)
Cause of Bad DER of 2007 M’s (Part 3) which I wrote February 20,2008 should has been the last part of the series.
But there was a drastic change in defense of M's.
Paul Covert -san calculated the DER in 2008 by manager:
Defensive Efficiency (calculated as [H-HR+ROE]/[BFP-K-BB-HBP-HR]):
McLaren April .690
McLaren May .665
McLaren June .667
(McLaren overall .675)
Riggleman June/July .720
A drastic change.
How Will Ichiro Perform in 2008? -Part 2 (Dr Naka)
Thanks all for the comments to my part 1.
As I wrote in part 1 there have been some TV interviews in Japan this off-season. Part of it is the interview of NHK which has been reported by Brad Lefton
Doctor: "Ichiro has a very fine prefrontal cortex"
For 70 days over three different spans of last season, a four-person, one-camera crew (of which this writer was a member) followed Ichiro's every move, trying to discern his professional methodology.
Here some pictures from the TV (Sorry for bad quality because I made camera shots of TV). First picture is Ichiro commuting in his car (Ichiro likes super sports cars and has some of them).
Next picture is Ichiro eating home made curry.
How Will Ichiro Perform in 2008? -Part 1 (Dr Naka)
This is part 1 of Ichiro 2008.
How will he perform?
1. Will he have 200 hits 100 runs and 30 SB?
2. Will he be more vocal and will be the leader of M's?
3. Will he be more patient and draw more walks?
4. Will he have (mini) slumps in April and August/September?
5. Will he have more bunts and SB as ordered by his manager (though I don't know if McLaren will order him to do so; he just said it to media)
Just some questions to my freinds here at DOV.
In Part 2 I will write my opinion based on offseason interviews reported in Japan.
Cause of Bad DER of 2007 M’s (Part 3)
Now to the last part. What I think is the cause and the solution.
As in an Edgar Allan Poe mystery C. Auguste Dupin must solve the problem. All the evidence have been in part 1 and 2.
Profiling:
1. Johjima is making something different. The emphasis is in different because if Johjima is making something inferior or bad or has a bad habit all the coaches, bloggers and fans would have find it and corrected it. Unconsciousness or subconsciousness may also be involved to make it harder to solve the problem.
2.It must be something related to attention. When Johjima calls for attention in RISP situation the DER was better. Suspect is more to younger players than veterans. Lopez was criticises for lack of attention. Yubet too. So Lopez and Yubet may be involved.
Cause of Bad DER of 2007 M’s (Part 2)
2007 M's DER by Dr. Naka, PART ONE
Now let's discuss about FOREST.
Before I go to details a review what the discussion is about.
I am a bit lazy so I got it from THT.
Cause of Bad DER of 2007 M’s (Part 1)
Here you have a post valued 20M$ for the Mariners. It is a long post so it is in 3 parts.
[Conventional wisdom is..] Ibanez and Sexson lost one step or two and is the cause of bad defence of M's. Bench Vidro, Ibanez to 1st, let fielders with range like AJ or Wlad play at left and the problem is solved.
But …
Watching all most games of 2007 on Japanese TV which has a far more better camera work on defence of the players than MLB TV or other US TVs, it cannot be true.
The discussion at DOV was:
Some Thoughts, Hypothesis (by DrNaka)
One
Dominating SP makes offensive stats better.
Sexson said that adding Bedard will take the pressure off of the offense. But I am not writing on this mental side.
Let's see. If a team is leading after 6 innings the offence does not face the 200 ERA+ setups and closers. They will face the inferior RP.
On-the-envelope calculation. Difference of 96 games winning after 6 inning and 66 winning makes 30*3 innings facing 200 ERA+ pitching or 100 ERA+ pitching. That will boost the team OPS+ about 1.
Two
There are some discussion about simulation in the Ms blog-o-sphere.
Discussion includes the idea of a coin toss. But there is something missing in the discussion.A coin toss is a independent phenomenon. The coin does not remember whether it was heads or tails before.
Just to inform that SportSpot is down and you can find your friends now at Mariner Central.
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?
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